Midway through the second quarter of a low-scoring affair between the Miami Heat and Cleveland Cavaliers, Tyler Herro received a pass from Jimmy Butler. As the ball floated beneath his palm, the 24-year-old combo guard briefly surveyed the scene, hesitated and dashed downhill. But the sturdy, defensive-minded Dean Wade recovered to impede his path. With the gangly Jarrett Allen looming behind Wade inside, Herro was forced to extinguish his dribble.
From there, he pirouetted into what almost everyone thought would be a difficult, contested fadeaway over Wade’s craning arm. The clock was dwindling and it’s the type of shot Herro has attempted for years, both because of his own preferences and Miami’s team-wide offensive constraints burdening him with such responsibilities. Instead, he called a midair audible and slung a lefty kickout pass right toward Jaime Jaquez’s shooting pocket for a rhythm triple.
Though Jaquez missed, that sort of sequence exemplifies how Herro has gone from a talented, mercurial offensive option to someone worthy of genuine All-Star consideration this season.
Through 23 games, the sixth-year guard is averaging 24.2 points (career-high), 5.3 rebounds and 5.0 assists (career-high). He’s shooting 42.7 percent beyond the arc and 55.8 percent on two-pointers — both career-highs as well. His 63.7 percent true shooting is 6.4 points above league average. Prior to this campaign, his best mark had been 0.7 points below league average at 55.9 percent.
A Change In Approach
Sure, some of Herro’s massive uptick in efficiency stems from canning 42.7 percent of his long balls. Yet this is a career 38.9 percent marksman. Even if regression arises, he’s not merely thriving on unsustainable production. Rather, he’s totally transformed his shot profile, the product of improved decision-making and a concerted effort to better optimize the result of each touch.
During Herro’s first five seasons, the man loved himself a deep two like few others around the league. According to Cleaning the Glass, he hovered between 12 and 22 percent frequency on long midrange jumpers (14 feet to inside the 3-point line), including 15 percent last year (85th percentile). This season, that rate has shrunk to three percent (seventh percentile). He’s attempted just nine long midrange jumpers in 2024-25.
That tweak has coincided with career-highs in drives per game (13.0) and rim frequency (23 percent), where he’s made 63 percent of his looks (51st percentile among combo guards). The Herro of old may see open real estate and saunter into a pull-up jumper outside the paint, while today’s version is consciously working to attack that space. He’s not explosive, but he is agile and now seems better equipped to handle physicality on his 6-foot-5 frame as both instigator and recipient.
Herro’s increased willingness to probe, maintain a live dribble and operate patiently has amplified his playmaking gifts as well. His 24.3 percent assist rate is a career-high and he’s blending some eye-popping deliveries with sagacious reads that have replaced arduous self-creation. According to NBARAPM, his 11.2 percent bad pass turnover rate is a career-low.
When defenses load up on him inside the arc, he’s opting for fewer of the off-balance leaners or deep pull-ups that do make use of his picturesque jumper, but aren’t particularly ideal for conducting high-level offense. He’s emerged as a pretty snappy decision-maker capitalizing on the gravity he commands.
Comfortable decisions internally have been replaced by ideal decisions internally. As the sample of this approach swells for Herro, those labels may soon converge. Either way, he’s playing a brand of basketball that uplifts the entire Miami offense toward heights he’s previously struggled to reach for sustained periods. As a ball-handler, he is searching for good outcomes, not just outcomes themselves. That shift is stark, noticeable and beneficial for everyone.
Herro Has Been An Elite And Versatile Shooter
For years, Herro has flirted with entering the elite shooter ranks. This season, he’s firmly entrenched in that company. Off the bounce, he’s netted 43.3 percent of his 104 deep balls, which ranks sixth among 63 players to take at least 60 pull-up threes this season.
That long range aggression has keenly come at the expense of his midrange inclinations. According to NBA.com, pull-up twos outside of 10 feet comprise a career-low 10.4 percent of his field goals. He’s never dipped below 24.4 percent in any other season. Those enticing yet inefficient shots have been succeeded by fortuitous interior escapades and some gnarly shot-making like this from deep.
Herro’s off-ball presence and mindset have spiked this year, too. Despite being a very good shooter his entire career, he’s never been a great off-ball player because of habitual woes. He had a tendency to bypass spot-up threes in favor of shot fakes into sidestep attempts or long 2s and sometimes would refuse a look altogether if the defensive pressure proved too overwhelming.
Those instances are less common this year. His 30.3 percent catch-and-shoot three rate is a career-high and his general activity away from the action seems more impactful. He’s letting it rip when the ball swings toward him — making 42.5 percent of his catch-and-shoot threes — thriving in off-ball sets, and taking advantage of vacated space with his movement, feel and awareness. Herro’s been Miami’s premier offensive initiator, but he’s also flourishing when someone else dictates possessions in his place.
Dating back to his rookie year, a lack of confidence has never plagued Herro. He’ll always welcome control of the offense and hoist shots during pivotal moments if called upon. Nowadays, that effervescent confidence is merging with a silky jumper, refined decision-making and sharper court vision to render Herro a really freaking good basketball player, especially on offense. His plus-4.1 Offensive Estimated Plus-Minus is 12th league-wide and his plus-2.4 EPM overall is 45th.
The Heat are navigating some choppy waters amid Jimmy Butler trade rumors and a potential inflection moment for their direction as a franchise. But Herro’s performance is offering optimism regardless of which path the front office picks, making good on all the promise that is now fully blossoming during his sixth NBA season.
