Voters in Dunkley have backed Labor’s tax cut package by more than two-to-one, despite the party facing a barrage of negative cost of living ads from Advance Australia.
According to a uComms poll for the leftwing thinktank the Australia Institute, Labor has its nose in front in the byelection seat 52% to 48% – although that result is within the poll’s 3.9% margin of error.
The byelection was triggered by the death of Labor MP Peta Murphy and pits community organiser Jodie Belyea against the Liberal candidate, Nathan Conroy, the mayor of Frankston.
The opposition leader, Peter Dutton, has claimed that Labor’s tax package targeting low and middle-income earners was crafted “with the Dunkley election contest in mind”.
Dutton told ABC’s 7.30 on Wednesday that Anthony Albanese was facing “a big swing against him” and had made a “political decision” to abandon the stage-three tax cuts to shore up the government’s position in the seat.
Murphy won Dunkley with a 6.3% margin, but the average swing in byelections in Labor seats during Labor governments is 8.2%.
Rightwing campaign group Advance Australia has emailed its supporters, urging them to turn the byelection into a “referendum on the prime minister” including “on cost of living, on broken promises, on housing and rental costs”.
On Wednesday it emailed supporters encouraging donations for “an effective advertising campaign” to “really hurt Labor”, with a target of $275,000 “to inflict maximum damage”.
The email warns the government “will go on releasing paedophiles and violent sex offenders from immigration detention”, a reference to its compliance with the high court’s ruling in the NZYQ case that people cannot be indefinitely detained where it is not possible to deport them.
“This is not just about Dunkley, it’s a referendum on Albo,” it said. “It’s us versus them.”
Meta’s ad library shows that Advance Australia and its election news page have paid hundreds for digital ads on Facebook and its other platforms, targeting Victoria with messages attacking Labor over cost of living.
One reads: “Cost of living through the roof. Electricity and groceries skyrocketing. Housing unaffordable. Interest rates smashing families. Thanks Albo – this is on you. Let’s put Labor last.”
The election news ads are marked “paid for by Advance Australia” and share links to mainstream news articles alongside captions saying Albanese’s “credibility has come under fire amid a cost of living crisis and a broken election promise that now means tax cuts will be scaled back for some Australians”.
The uComms poll of 626 residents of Dunkley found that 66% supported the Albanese government’s changes to the stage-three tax cuts, 28% were opposed and a further 6% were not sure.
Respondents were told that “stage-three income tax cuts … would cost the budget $319bn over the next 10 years and mostly benefit high-income earners” but Labor proposed restructuring them “so all taxpayers receive a tax cut, with 84% receiving a larger tax cut but those earning above $150,000 receiving a smaller tax cut than they otherwise would have”.
An analysis by Ben Phillips, an associate professor at the Australian National University, found in Frankston, at the centre of the Dunkley electorate, the average taxpayer will be $478 better off under Labor’s changes.
Labor’s digital ads tell voters that “from 1 July this year, the Albanese Labor government will delivery a tax cut for every taxpayer in Dunkley”.
The Liberals are campaigning on Labor’s cuts to infrastructure and the opposition’s promise to provide more train services between Baxter and Frankston.
Labor argues the theoretical $900m commitment is disingenuous because it requires matched funding from the state government, and even the state Liberal opposition has not committed to fund it.
