WHAT are the chances of two people having the same Optus mobile phone number?
And what is the likelihood that both of those people like writing letters to the Newcastle Herald?
The chances of them both being supporters of Newcastle council and expressing strikingly similar views in their correspondence?
What are the chances that neither of them appears to have ever lived in the Hunter, but they comment about the goings on in Newcastle in great detail?
In fact, what are the chances that one of them can't be found and the other has lived in Japan for 30 years?
Or even, what are the chances that they both have links to Hunter council general managers?
One being the best mate of Newcastle council boss Jeremy Bath. The other being able to mysteriously access an email sent to a closed group of NSW council heads.
What are the chances that the two people supplying the same mobile number might know each other?
At the very least, on the face of it, there are some very obvious questions - but guess what the chances are of getting any answers?
Not very good, as it turns out.
So let's strip this story back to basics.
First the facts
City of Newcastle boss Jeremy Bath's best mate Scott Neylon, who has lived in Japan for 30 years, has been writing to publications across NSW for more than a decade.
His letters always support Mr Bath, or his employers, and attack their critics.
For almost 12 months the Newcastle Herald has sought to get to the bottom of allegations that the letters submitted under the name Scott Neylon were in fact penned by Mr Bath.
Mr Neylon says he wrote the letters and Mr Bath denies any involvement.
Now it has been revealed that another letter writer, someone using the name Jason Sivo, provided the same mobile phone number as Scott Neylon when they submitted correspondence to the Newcastle Herald.
So Scott Neylon and Jason Sivo, neither who appear to have ever lived in the Hunter, like writing to the Herald on strikingly similar topics, and are both supporters of Newcastle council.
Mr Sivo also wrote three emails to Herald journalists. In one, he attached an email that was circulated in a closed email discussion group of NSW council bosses.
The man who wrote that email, former Maitland council boss David Evans, can't recall exactly who was in the group email discussion.
His best recall is council general managers.
Mr Evans wants to know how Jason Sivo, or someone using that name, accessed his email.
So does the Newcastle Herald on behalf of Newcastle and Maitland ratepayers.
We can't find a 'Jason Sivo' in the Hunter. We've tried contacting him via the phone number and email address he provided, and searched a host of databases and social media.
The whole scenario has prompted a lot of perfectly reasonable questions.
Many of them variants of: What are the odds?
The Herald has asked Mr Bath and Mr Neylon if they know Mr Sivo.
We also tried emailing Mr Sivo to ask if he knows Mr Neylon or Mr Bath.
None of them answered.
In the deafening silence, we're left to wonder.
Was this all pure coincidence?
Coincidence: a remarkable concurrence of events or circumstances without apparent causal connection.
If we were to believe all of this was pure coincidence, how improbable would we say that was?
Let's put aside the fact that Mr Neylon has been far from truthful in his letters to the Newcastle Herald to date.
Put aside the fact that the 48-year-old has claimed to live in a host of different Hunter suburbs and be everything from a pensioner to a grandfather and a regular user of Newcastle council pools, despite being an English teacher who has lived in Japan for decades.
Put aside the fact that a fair and reasonable person might think it a bit bizarre, perhaps even pretty unlikely, for Jason Sivo, a mysterious letter writer from Waratah who can't be found, to have access to an internal email sent to NSW council bosses about a government stimulus package at the height of the pandemic.
Put aside the fact that Mr Neylon and Mr Sivo supplied the same mobile number in submissions to the Herald within weeks of each other.
Optus and the Australian Communications and Media Authority don't believe two people using the same number around the same time to be very likely. That's because telcos hold disused mobile phone numbers in quarantine for at least six months after they are disconnected, some are held for up to 12 months.
Meaning there was not enough time for the number to be reassigned from Mr Neylon to Mr Sivo.
Put all that aside and what do we have?
A series of unanswered questions that go to trust, honesty and accountability.
And what are Mr Bath, Mr Neylon and Mr Sivo doing to clear up the confusion?
Silence, despite numerous requests to explain what is going on.
At least until a few Fridays ago, when Mr Bath's lawyer sent the Newcastle Herald a legal letter.
And what was in the letter?
It threatened that if the Herald ran the latest story about the mysterious Mr Sivo, City of Newcastle would make a complaint to the Australian Press Council and possibly sue for defamation.
The legal letter said Mr Bath did not write to the Newcastle Herald using the name Jason Sivo and was not involved in the correspondence.
Simple questions
Now, Mr Bath's communication skills have never been in question.
As one of the highest paid public servants in the region, and a seasoned public relations specialist, one would assume he could easily deal with a few questions from a journalist.
In fact, in a previous response to the Herald about the letters saga, Mr Bath explained how readily he makes public statements on important issues facing Newcastle council.
"If you go through the Herald's archives, you will see that I've put my name to more than a dozen letters and opinion pieces in the Newcastle Herald over the past decade, debating the major policy matters impacting those that have criticised City of Newcastle," he wrote.
"The Herald cannot dispute that when I want to say something, I put my name to it."
Mr Bath, do you know Jason Sivo? If so, how?
We'd also like to know, where is he now?
Were you involved in, or did you receive a copy of, a group email involving council heads that included comment from then Maitland council general manager David Evans that was sent on April 29, 2020?
If the answer to these questions is no, then ratepayers would like to know.
But Mr Bath's inability or unwillingness to tell ratepayers what he knows - while trumpeting that he has been cleared by a council investigation of any involvement in the letters saga - defies all logic.
And any assault on the council's integrity comes at a bad time, especially for lord mayor Nuatali Nelmes and her Labor councillors, with a local government election looming in September.
It reminds me of another time when Mr Bath, and Mr Neylon for that matter, refused to answer the Herald's questions.
When it was revealed that a pro-pokies comment made on former premier Bob Carr's blog under the name Scott Neylon came from an IP address traced to ClubsNSW's Sydney headquarters.
Mr Bath was working for ClubsNSW in Sydney at the time, steering the powerful lobby group's media campaigns.
The person who left the comment under the name Scott Neylon provided an email address with the prefix 'InkermanStreet'.
Mr Bath's wife owned a property in Inkerman Street, Parramatta, at the time.
Lots of obvious questions. And too few answers.
Do you know more? Donna.page@newcastleherald.com.au
