From late 2025, Qantas hopes to run the first of its “Project Sunrise” flights – up to 20 hours non-stop from the east coast of Australia to Europe and the US east coast.
Australia’s national carrier has trumpeted the flights as “the final frontier of aviation”, but health and industry experts hold concerns for the passenger experience and question whether eliminating a stopover will ultimately increase aircraft emissions.
Qantas first announced its vision to run the ultra long-haul routes in 2017, but Covid pushed back the predicted 2022 launch. With global aviation now booming again thanks to the post-pandemic hunger for travel, Project Sunrise is firmly back on the agenda.
The airline already runs non-stop flights from Perth to London and Rome, which have proved popular despite costing more than traditional services that stop over in Asia.
Qantas runs Boeing 787s from Perth to Europe, and has used that aircraft for a test flight on the Sydney-London route, but it says Project Sunrise will rely on the superior fuel efficiency of Airbus’s A350-1000.
The airline has ordered 12 of them to be fitted out with 232 seats – far fewer than the usual configuration of 300 to 350 seats – so the planes can carry the extra fuel needed to travel roughly 18,000km without stopping.
With fewer potential customers per flight, Qantas will lean into the high-end market, with 40% of the cabin to be “premium seating”.
Each plane will have six first-class suites, 52 business suites, 40 premium economy seats, and 140 standard economy seats at the rear.
So far the airline has revealed more about the front end of the plane. First class will feature a 2-metre bed, personal wardrobe and 32-inch television in each suite, which will be 50% larger than the suites on its existing A380s. Business class will have generous legroom and privacy walls.
Much less has been promised for travellers in economy, beyond a seat pitch of 33 inches, 2-3 inches above the airline’s standard. Passengers from all classes will be able to access a snack station and a “wellbeing zone”. The zone, a “dedicated space for movement”, appears similar in size to the back of most cabin aisles.
Carbs and calisthenics
Qantas has engaged scientists from the University of Sydney to study the health implications of what will become the world’s longest flights, and to minimise the body clock impact of potentially seeing the sun rise twice on the same journey.
On a test flight from Sydney to London in 2019, carbohydrate-laden meals were designed to make passengers sleepy early on, while spicy soups were served to perk up passengers at the time when they would be waking up at their destination.
A mid-air calisthenics class was also held, with the Qantas chief executive, Alan Joyce, dancing the macarena in the aisles of the economy cabin (which held no passengers).
Tony Schiemer, a doctor specialising in aerospace medicine who has worked with the Australian air force and navy, says the ultra-long flight would slightly raise the risk of common inflight concerns such as deep vein thrombosis.
The risk of blood clotting becomes pronounced once a flight reaches four hours, and increases with every extra hour, Schiemer says.
He says there is little evidence to support “economy class syndrome” – the idea that those crammed into smaller seats are at greater risk.
“You’ll most certainly be uncomfortable, but I can’t see any reason why that would cause any longer term problems,” he says.
Schiemer questions whether the wellbeing zones will be sufficient as a release for those stuck in economy seats. He points to the bunk bed-style sleeping pods Air New Zealand is set to offer economy passengers in four-hour slots as a better initiative.
“It’s a great idea, because getting more sleep is invaluable.”
Schiemer, who also works as a commercial pilot, believes that except for significantly older passengers and those with chronic diseases, most of the added risks associated with 20-hour-long flights could be psychological.
“There’s not a lot of evidence to say that flying actively dehydrates you, but it’s more about human behaviour … people will say they don’t want to have to get up and pee as much, so they choose to drink less, and dehydration is a risk factor for developing blood clots.”
Those limiting water intake will also feel the effects of alcohol more.
“It would also feel easier to feel a bit more drunk, because there’s less oxygen in the cabin at a higher altitude, so it will be important that passengers don’t overdo it.
“When someone is on holiday, if they’re uncomfortable due to the physical space limits, some will hit the booze more, and they’re in that environment longer on these flights,” Schiemer says.
A ‘tradeoff between fuel and fewer seats’
Qantas boasts that the A350 uses up to 20% less fuel than other aircraft its size and 25% less carbon dioxide emissions per seat, but critics question whether the non-stop flights will be less environmentally damaging.
On the one hand, it saves fuel by avoiding at least one take-off – the most energy intensive part of a flight. But by carrying far fewer passengers the emissions footprint per passenger blows out significantly.
Emissions figures have not been released for the Project Sunrise flights, but the International Civil Aviation Organization calculated that non-stop flights from Dubai to Auckland – about 14,000km – produced an average of 876kg of C02 per economy passenger. With a stopover in Singapore, average emissions per economy passenger were 772kg. Emissions are significantly higher for premium class passengers.
Qantas is betting that the time saved by flying non-stop will appeal to business customers – it estimates that the non-stop service will cut the London-Sydney trip to between 19 and 20 hours, compared with more than 23 hours with a stop in Singapore.
The airline says Project Sunrise flight times will be between 18 and 20 hours depending on the direction, and is yet to release airfare information. It did not respond to a question about emissions.
Zena Assaad, a senior research fellow at the Australian National University whose PhD was on the efficiencies of long-haul flying, expects ultra long-haul flights to become more popular, and says this will help improve congestion at major airports.
But she predicts that Qantas may need to move away from its luxurious cabin configurations to compete better on price.
“Perhaps at the beginning the approach of more space for customers might be great, but if the 20-hour flight becomes the norm, I don’t know how cost effective it will be,” she says.
Qantas is yet to release its pricing structure for the flights, but says fares will be about 30% higher than its traditional routes.
Prof Rico Merkert, deputy director of the University of Sydney’s Institute of Transport and Logistics, believes the flights can be profitable by targeting business travellers, and that the more spacious interiors driven by fuel requirements are ultimately a positive.
“Making travel quicker is something business types are prepared to spend on, but even thinking in economy, as a tall person, if you sit there cramped like a sardine it gets painful. I’m convinced that people won’t come back for that.”
“There’s this tradeoff between fuel and fewer seats making the flights less efficient, but it’s better than running a flight that nobody wants – that’s the most inefficient use of fuel.”
