Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has won the support of a nationalist rival eliminated in the first round of presidential elections, boosting his chances of extending his 20-year rule at Sunday’s runoff.
Longshot third candidate Sinan Ogan won 5.2% of votes in the May 14 ballot, giving him just enough weight to play a key role in deciding Turkey’s future.
Erdogan secured 49.5% of votes in the initial round, just shy of the 50% threshold required to secure an outright win, but could benefit from Ogan’s support to extend an already comfortable lead on May 28.
His main challenger, joint opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu, won 45% of the vote, respectable but not enough to dislodge the incumbent despite a cost-of-living crisis and criticism over the government’s response to the earthquakes that devastated the southeast earlier this year.
There is no threshold in the second round so whoever gets the most votes wins.
Ogan made his announcement at a press conference on Monday after signaling on Twitter that he would prioritize “stability.”
“It’s important that the parliament and presidency are held by the same political group to maintain stability” Ogan said as he announced his endorsement of Erdogan, whose election alliance won more than half the seats in Turkey’s 600-seat general assembly in the elections.
Turkish equities dropped after Ogan’s press conference. Borsa Istanbul Banks Index, a gauge that tracks lenders’ shares, extended its losses to as much as 3.1%.
Ogan has made it clear in recent weeks that he’d want a government position or the vice presidency in return for endorsing either candidate, making Erdogan a safer bet.
It remains to be seen, however, how many votes he can ultimately muster. A little-known figure backed by a small anti-immigration party, Ogan lacks the organizational clout to corral supporters, who could end up voting in different directions.
The 55-year-old visited Erdogan in Istanbul Friday. His ally, Umit Ozdag, leader of the Zafer Party, met Kilicdaroglu in Ankara the same day.
Both candidates have sought to sway Ogan’s swing voters by reinforcing their nationalist credentials.
The pro-Erdogan Daily Sabah wrote on May 19 that the government and Ogan see eye to eye on key policies including the need to take a hard line on Kurdish separatists.
Meanwhile, Kilicdaroglu has vowed to expel all refugees, including Syrians, from Turkey in a bid to lure support from Ozdag, who made anti-immigration policies the centerpiece of his party’s election campaign.
Kilicdaroglu is running on a promise to restore the rule of law, mend strained ties with the West and return Turkey to economic orthodoxy.
Another term for Erdogan would likely mean a continuation of his low-interest rate policy, which has fueled price rises, hit the lira and alienated investors.
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With assistance from Tugce Ozsoy.
