With Ankara warning Tehran not to undermine Syria’s new rulers and its ongoing peace efforts with Kurdish rebels, regional rivalry with Iran has been intensifying. However, Turkey’s concerns about potential US military action against Iran over its nuclear energy programme are now providing a rare point of convergence between the two rivals.
After months of diplomatic barbs and threats exchanged between Ankara and Tehran, the Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, on Wednesday praised his Turkish counterpart, Hakan Fidan, for what he described as a “constructive and supportive position” regarding the indirect US-Iranian talks in Oman over Iran’s nuclear energy programme.
Oman Talks
The Oman talks aim to avert a possible US military strike on Iran, an option that President Donald Trump has not ruled out. Despite the strained relations with Tehran, avoiding confrontation remains a priority for Ankara.
“Turkey would be concerned for many reasons,” claims Özgür Ünlühisarcıklı, who heads the German Marshall Fund’s office in Ankara.
“This would be just another war on Turkey’s borders. Turkey would have to deal with difficult problems, and instability in Iran would almost certainly lead to an additional wave of refugees,” he added.
Kurdish leader Ocalan calls for PKK disarmament, paving way for peace
Turkish diplomatic tensions with Iran have been on the rise, with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan issuing thinly veiled threats to Tehran, urging it not to interfere in Ankara’s efforts to end the conflict with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has waged a decades-long campaign for greater minority rights within Turkey.
“Ankara believes that Iran is trying to undermine this [peace] process both in Turkey and in Syria,” observes Serhan Afacan, who heads the Centre for Iranian Studies, a research organisation based in Ankara.
In February, the imprisoned PKK leader, Abdullah Öcalan, called for his organisation to disarm. With the PKK operating from bases in Iraq and having an affiliated group in Syria, Ankara has frequently accused Tehran of using the PKK as a proxy in its regional contest for power and influence. Afacan contends that Ankara fears Tehran still holds sway over the Kurdish rebels.
“Especially in Syria, Iran might try to convince them not to respond positively to Öcalan’s call – this has been Turkey’s main concern,” warned Afacan.
Iranian unease
The recent ousting of long-time Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad has deprived Iran of a key ally, while Syria’s new rulers are aligned with Ankara rather than Tehran. A peace agreement between Turkish forces and Kurdish rebels would only deepen Iran’s unease over Turkey’s growing regional influence.
“Turkey is about to end the PKK through its policies both domestically and regionally, and this is causing a kind of panic on the Iranian side,” observes Bilgehan Alagöz, a professor of international relations at Istanbul’s Marmara University. “Iran sees this as a threat to its regional influence and a development that could empower Turkey,” Alagöz added.
Nevertheless, Syria’s Kurdish-led militia, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which maintains close ties with the PKK, has stated it is not bound by Öcalan’s call to disarm. Although it has agreed in principle with Syria’s new rulers to merge its forces, the precise terms of the arrangement remain unclear.
Syria’s new leadership
Tensions also persist between the SDF and Syria’s new leadership. The Kurdish-led militia continues to demand greater autonomy within Syria — a position opposed by Damascus’s new rulers and their backers in Ankara. Turkey suspects Tehran of favouring a decentralised and weakened Syria — a goal analysts say is also shared by Israel.
“The Middle East makes strange bedfellows,” notes Gallia Lindenstrauss, a foreign policy expert at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. “Sometimes, these things unfold in ways that are surprising.”
Lindenstrauss also questions the Israeli government’s zero-sum view of Turkey, which it sees as both a rival and a supporter of Syria’s new rulers.
He told RFI: “I’m not sure this idea of a decentralised Syria is fully thought through by Jerusalem. I know there’s a lot of intellectual energy devoted to this line of thinking. But clearly, we don’t want Iran to use Syria to its advantage. A centralised regime might be a better scenario for Syria. But that comes at a cost — and the cost is increased Turkish involvement and influence in Syria. So, there is a dilemma.”
Last month, Fidan angered Tehran by warning that Iran could face instability if it attempted to destabilise Syria — a statement some analysts interpret as a veiled reference to Iran’s sizeable and often restive Turkish minority, which is viewed with suspicion by Tehran.
Ünlühisarcıklı believes Ankara sees itself as gaining the upper hand in its regional rivalry with Tehran, yet remains cautious about the risks posed by a potential US-Iran conflict.
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“Turkey has outcompeted Iran, and it has no objection to Iran being further weakened,” Ünlühisarcıklı remarked.
“But Turkey would have a serious problem with Iran being targeted militarily, as that would destabilise the entire region.”
Avoiding such a conflict now offers common ground for Turkey and its long-time regional competitor Iran — a relationship often described as a delicate balance between cooperation and competition.
Analysts expect this balancing act to be severely tested in the months to come.
