With Donald Trump returning to the White House on Monday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan sees a chance to rekindle what he calls his "close working relationship" with the incoming US leader. But a Trump presidency could bring risks as well as opportunities for Erdogan.
Erdogan was quick to congratulate Trump on his election victory, making clear his desire to work with him again.
"Donald Trump is a man who acts with his instincts, and Erdogan is too," explains Huseyin Bagci, a professor of international relations with Ankara's Middle East Technical University.
"They are not intellectuals as we used to have, big political leaders after World War II. They are tradespeople. They are very pragmatic ones, and they are political animals. In this sense, they like transactional policies, not value-based policies."
Syria a key focus
Erdogan’s top priority is expected to be securing the withdrawal of US forces from Syria, where they support the Kurdish militia YPG in the fight against the Islamic State.
Ankara views the YPG as a terrorist group linked to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which has waged an insurgency in Turkey for decades.
During his first presidency, Trump promised to pull US forces out of Syria, though this move faced strong resistance from American officials.
Sezin Oney, a commentator with Turkey’s independent Politikyol news portal, said new challenges in Syria make an early withdrawal unlikely.
"Not to have the ISIS resurgence again or this HTS presenting a threat to the United States, the Trump administration would be interested in protecting the YPG and the Kurds, their alliance with the Kurds," said Oney.
"We already have the (US) vice president, JD Vance, pointing out the ISIS resurgence."
Turkey steps up military action against Kurds in Syria as power shifts
Israel and Iran
The ceasefire between Hamas and Israel could ease another potential point of tension between Erdogan and Trump, as Erdogan has been a strong supporter of Hamas.
Meanwhile, both Ankara and Washington share concerns over Iran’s regional influence, which could encourage cooperation between the two leaders.
"Trump administration is coming in with a desire to stabilise relations with Turkey," said Asli Aydintasbas, an analyst with the Brookings Institution.
"We are likely to see more and more of a personal rapport, personal relationship, which had been missing during the Biden administration," she added. "President Erdogan and President Trump will get along famously. But it does not mean Turkey gets all of its policy options."
Success of rebel groups in Syria advances Turkish agenda
Fighter jets and Ukraine
Erdogan is also hoping the Trump administration will lift a Congressional embargo on advanced fighter jet sales. Experts suggest Turkey could play a key role in any Trump-led efforts to negotiate a ceasefire in the Ukraine war, given Erdogan’s ties with both Russia and Ukraine.
"If Trump is pushing for a ceasefire in Ukraine between Russia and Ukraine, in this case Turkey could be very helpful as a potential mediator," said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, head of the German Marshall Fund’s Ankara office.
But Unluhisarcikli warned of potential challenges.
"What happens in Syria could be a test for the US-Turkey relationship very early on. Turkey is actually preparing for a new intervention in northeast Syria against what Turkey sees as a terrorist organisation, and what the United States sees as a partner on the ground."
Economic risks
Trump’s previous presidency saw tensions with Erdogan peak after Trump threatened to destroy Turkey’s economy over its plans to attack US-backed Syrian Kurdish forces. This move triggered a sharp drop in the Turkish lira.
With Turkey’s economy now weaker than before, analysts say Erdogan will need to proceed cautiously in his dealings with the new Trump administration.
