France's recent military withdrawals from the Sahel and West Africa are leaving a void that Turkey is keen to exploit, experts told RFI. But while Turkey is profiting from its position as a NATO member and experienced arms exporter, it needs to be careful not to overstretch itself in terms of resources on the continent.
France's handover of its sole base in Côte d'Ivoire and a pullout in January from Chad are part of a broader reduction of the French army's presence across the region.
"What we are living in now is a transformational age," international relations expert Federico Donelli of Trieste University told RFI.
"Many traditional players like France, for example, in that region of Africa are downgrading their own engagement in this area. Not because they have some economic or political constraint but because the local states want them to leave the region."
Donelli believes the door is now open to new players, such as Turkey.
"Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has invested heavily in Africa, quadrupling Turkey's embassy presence across Africa in the past two decades. Erdogan, a devout Muslim, also plays the Muslim card and reminds his African audiences of France's colonial past," he says.
Insurgent threats
However, Elem Tepecikoglu of Ankara's Social Sciences University believes the breakthrough for Turkey came with the French military failing to deal with insurgent threats in the Sahel and broader West Africa.
"The image of France is in tatters because the regional countries criticise French missions for failing to help them fight with terrorist groups and for bringing more harm than good," explains Tepecikoglu.
Tepecikoglu claims Erdogan's Africa policy caught the regional zeitgeist.
"Together with rising anti-French sentiments, this brings opportunities for other countries to step in, and Turkey has several defense or mutual cooperation agreements with Sahelian countries. And according to some sources, Turkey has deployed military advisers and drones at the Abéché base in Chad," adds Tepecikoglu.
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Deepening Senegalese and Turkish military ties was on the agenda at an Istanbul meeting in October. Shortly after the high-profile gathering, Senegal called for the removal of French forces.
Turkey's vibrant arms industry selling battle-proven weapons invariably cheaper than its Western competitors, as well as having few, if any, restrictions on use, is complementing Ankara's traditional diplomatic tools in its bid to broaden its influence.
"Turkish defense products are now very popular in African markets. So this also applies to Sahelian countries," explains Tepecikoglu, "For example, Nigeria, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Chad acquired Turkish drones. While other Sahelian countries acquired other Turkish military equipment."
Overstretch
Turkey remains a relatively small player against the giants of Russia, China, and the United States in the battle to secure economic and diplomatic influence.
But the growing competition between Western and Eastern powers could be to Turkey's advantage, says Donelli.
"So, for an African state, establishing a security agreement with Turkey is less costly in political terms in comparison with relations with Russia because that doesn't mean 'I break with the West, but I'm doing something with a NATO member'. This is really important," adds Donelli.
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But Turkey's rapid expansion into Africa does not come cheap what with diplomatic representations across the continent, growing military presence, such as army and naval bases in Libya and Africa.
"Turkey is expanding too much. This is called overstretch in diplomatic language," warns International relations professor Huseyin Bagci of Ankara Middle East Technical University.
"So, Turkey's military and economic capabilities are actually limited. The more you expand, the more you have to pay," he says, adding that such a strategy would not be sustainable.
With the Turkish economy mired in crisis and Erdogan looking to improve ties with Europe, including France, analysts say Turkey could be ready for cooperation rather than rivalry in Africa.
