December has been a month of turbulence for Tamil Nadu. Just when the northern parts of the State, Chennai and neighbouring districts, were recovering from Cyclone Michaung that crossed the coast two weeks ago, the southern parts, especially Thoothukudi, Tirunelveli, Tenkasi and Kanniyakumari districts, were battered by extremely heavy rainfall over Sunday to early Monday. Attributed to upper air circulation, 39 places registered “extremely heavy rainfall” (rain above 21 cm in 24 hours). Kayalpattinam in Thoothukudi recorded a whopping 95 cm while eight other places recorded over 50 cm in the same period. The entire weather activity was considered a freak occurrence in the ongoing northeast monsoon. Nearly four million people have been “very badly affected”, as pointed out by Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M.K. Stalin in his letter to the Defence Minister, Rajnath Singh. The Tamirabharani river even saw a flow of 1.5 lakh cubic feet per second (cusecs), another rarity. Even though the exact data on human loss has not yet been ascertained, the tally will be on the lower side. A train with about 800 passengers from Tiruchendur to Chennai, was stopped at the Srivaikuntam station. Going by initial reports, the infrastructure — roads, rail lines, canals, tanks and electric poles and many houses — has taken a beating. While a number of Ministers and senior officers are supervising relief operations, Governor R.N. Ravi, quite intriguingly, convened a meeting of the heads of departments of the Central government to discuss the operations.
The event again raises questions about weather forecasting and preparedness. As the enormity of the rainfall caught the State by surprise, questions have been asked why the Meteorological Department did not give any indication of its scale and coverage. But, the department’s line of defence is its warnings, since December 14, of “very heavy to extremely heavy” rain for three days. Besides, the country’s weather forecasting system has not progressed to the extent that exact amounts of rainfall, with their precise locations, can be predicted. While this is understandable, the scientific community should work towards precise forecasting. More importantly, there is scope for closer coordination between every department and agency serving the people. For instance, a better working relationship between the Meteorology department and the Railways would have ensured that the Tiruchendur train did not run. Changes to the services of certain trains in the southern districts were made only in a reactive rather than proactive way. A more cohesive working arrangement among different agencies can have a mitigating effect.
