Good morning. We have our third prime minister of 2022 – and, who knows, maybe the last. After days of high soap operatics, Rishi Sunak’s victory, ensured after Penny Mordaunt fell short of the 100 nomination threshold and withdrew from the Tory leadership race, came without much drama. He would love to keep things that way. It was the end of the “anarchic, punk rock ‘let’s trash the establishment’ of Trussonomics,” wrote John Crace. “We were moving into a new era of the carefully curated bloodless boyband, with Sunak as the frontman.”
Sunak is not an unknown quantity – but he arrives in No 10 after an abridged leadership fight with no scrutiny of his prescription to resolve the crises of the last six weeks. Today’s newsletter, with the Guardian’s Whitehall editor Rowena Mason, is about what we do know about Sunak: his policy agenda, his political weaknesses and how he hopes to turn the page on a year of Conservative pandemonium. Here are the headlines.
Five big stories
Ukraine | Russia’s defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, has told western counterparts that the war in Ukraine is heading for an “uncontrolled escalation” amid evidence that the Kremlin is weighing how to respond to yet another anticipated battlefield defeat around the key southern city of Kherson.
Housing | More than 6,000 homeless families in England were moved more than 20 miles from their local neighbourhoods over the past four years. The scale of the disruption to people’s lives has raised questions about the legality of the practice.
Protest | Labour leader Keir Starmer said he would continue with Tory plans for harsher sentences for climate protesters who block roads. Starmer also reiterated Labour’s pledge of imposing a moratorium on new oil and gas projects in the UK.
Espionage | Two Chinese intelligence officers tried to bribe a US law enforcement official as part of an effort to obtain inside information about a criminal case against the Chinese telecommunications company Huawei, prosecutors alleged on Monday.
Media | A BBC News presenter has been taken off air over a “potential breach of impartiality” after Boris Johnson pulled out of the Conservative leadership race. Martine Croxall said she was “gleeful” during her introduction to Sunday evening’s broadcast.
In depth: ‘Pro-City, pro-deregulation, with a side order of tax cuts’
When King Charles asks him to form a government this morning, Rishi Sunak will become Britain’s second ethnic minority prime minister after Benjamin Disraeli, more than 140 years ago. He is the first British Indian prime minister and, as a Hindu, the first to practice a faith other than Christianity.
In Brent, north-west London, the area’s sizeable Hindu community felt pride at that landmark news as they celebrated Diwali on Monday, Zaina Alibhai reports: “He’ll be writing history,” said 47-year-old Deepa Nayar. At the same time, writes Marcus Ryder, there should be scepticism about the idea of “trickle-down diversity”: the idea that people of colour in positions of power will automatically bring positive change.
What kind of change Sunak intends to bring remains remarkably unclear. “He had a pretty comprehensive programme in the summer,” said Rowena Mason. “But the landscape is so different now. And everyone is in the dark about what he plans, other than a very small campaign team around him.”
For more on the dizzying speed of the reversal in Sunak’s political fortunes, see this piece by Peter Walker and Pippa Crerar. Here’s what we do know about what Rishi Sunak’s government might look like.
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Policy: Tax rises likely, spending cuts inevitable
Sunak will make his first full speech as prime minister in Downing Street this morning. In his wooden public remarks yesterday, Sunak – using that familiar ‘reassuring daytime infomercial for funeral insurance’ tone that was briefly absent from the public arena – acknowledged the gravity of the circumstances, saying: “There is no doubt we face a profound economic challenge.”
How he will begin to respond to that challenge will be made clear next Monday, when Jeremy Hunt is expected to go ahead with a scheduled fiscal statement that will seek to mitigate the impact of the Liz Truss era – if, as seems likely, Sunak keeps him in place. Polly Toynbee writes that the outcome will be more painful than the last round of austerity, and is a matter of political choice.
“He won’t reverse the decision to scrap the national insurance rise, and he’s likely to raise other taxes,” Rowena said. “There will be tough decisions on uprating benefits and other cuts to public services. He’s unlikely to pledge to spend 3% of GDP on defence, which is important to a lot of Tory MPs.” Sunak is likely to maintain the energy price guarantee until April “but he will think about a more targeted approach after that”, just as Truss eventually signalled.
What else? Sunak said almost nothing during the leadership contest, other than a boilerplate tweeted announcement of his candidacy featuring a theoretical commitment to the 2019 manifesto. He has promised to honour net zero pledges but has appeared less committed on the climate crisis than Boris Johnson. His policy prescription for the creaking NHS in the summer was limited to fines for patients who miss appointments. Otherwise, apart from the continuation of Ukraine policy and hopes of a thaw with the EU over Northern Ireland, “we don’t really know what he thinks about almost anything other than the economy,” Rowena said.
“He’s only been in parliament seven years. He hasn’t spoken about very much else. But the clear indications [as Henry Hill, deputy editor of ConservativeHome, writes here] are that he’s very right-wing, and we shouldn’t expect him to be a centrist just because of tone or because he’s not Liz Truss. Pro-City, pro-deregulation, pro-fiscal discipline, with a side order of tax cuts if possible – that’s the closest thing to Sunakism at the moment.”
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Politics: Exhausted Tories are likely to back him – for now
If Sunak’s message to the public was sombre, his words to his own MPs were a little more colourful, Jessica Elgot reports: “Unite or die.” Those listening, many of whom are desperate for an end to the psychodramas, appear to have been mostly receptive: one Mordaunt supporter called it “the best leadership speech I have ever heard”.
“There is a small, very vocal rump, people like Nadine Dorries and Jacob Rees-Mogg, but they’re people he can do without, and the rest of the party is behind him,” said Rowena. “To maintain that, he’s going to have to balance his cabinet between all wings of the party in a way that Johnson and Truss didn’t.” This piece runs through some of the beneficiaries: let’s hope the government IT service has a new plan for Suella Braverman’s emails.
Ultimately, the self-interest of backbenchers staring down the barrel of electoral annihilation will ensure discipline if he gets a meaningful polling bounce. “He starts from such a low point that he has the chance to make progress,” Rowena said. “If that doesn’t happen, backbenchers will start to offer their own prescriptions. And that’s how party unity disappears.” As Aubrey Allegretti explains here, “it is easy to over-read the immediate public displays of loyalty as something resembling a lasting peace”.
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Tone: Stability
Sunak’s obvious opportunity is to draw a contrast with the havoc of the last two incumbents. “It was evident in that Twitter statement,” Rowena said. Sunak promised “integrity, professionalism and accountability at every level of the government”, and said he would “work day in and day out to get the job done.”
“It is one of his greatest assets that he comes across as someone who has a grip on things,” Rowena added. “He will talk about stability, and he’s not going to be making a lot of jokes.”
The fact of his ethnicity and faith, meanwhile, “is important to him – he’s not the kind of politician who denies how central that is to who he is. And he’s done work in his past life at a thinktank on how important diverse communities are to the success of political parties. He doesn’t dismiss it.”
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Vulnerabilities: The 0.01%
“After the Ed Miliband years, there was a bit of a perception within Labour that attacks on David Cameron over privilege made it harder to land arguments about being a party of aspiration,” Rowena said. “But Sunak looks like a very different case.”
Almost nobody will view a politician with a fortune of £730m as a plausibly aspirational figure. “And that chimes with these little slips that have made him look like he lives this rarefied, out-of-touch life.” Some of those slips are enumerated here; for more on the political complications of his wealth, see this piece by Rupert Neate.
His wife’s non-dom status – allowing her to avoid UK tax on the £11.6m annual dividends from her father’s software company – and Sunak’s maintenance of a US green card even when he was chancellor, were the basis of his greatest political weakness in the past. (Caroline Davies has more on his family.) “The question is how hard Labour want to go on that,” Rowena said. “He’s going to be a member of the 0.01% enacting austerity and telling people they have to suck up a lower standard of living.”
Though the country might feel relief today, that does not sound like a recipe for popularity. The Conservative desire for self-preservation, and the simple fact he is not Johnson or Truss, will take Sunak some distance – but that is very far from being enough.
What else we’ve been reading
In a rare interview, Barbra Streisand (pictured above) talks about the small club in Greenwich Village that launched her career – and why, 60 years later, she’s releasing the live recordings. Nimo
As Giorgia Meloni settles in as Italy’s first female prime minister, concerns are growing that her government will roll back LGBTQ+ rights in Italy. Angela Giuffrida spoke to the people who will be most affected. Nimo
This Jonathan Jones interview is an enjoyable examination of the machinations of the David Shrigley industry, and reveals that other people curate his books and exhibitions because his own favourites don’t sell: “Did anybody agree with me? No. No. They just wanted the ones of the cat.” Archie
Nichola Raihani interrogates the idea that cooperation is always positive in an engaging essay. “There is an almost fairytale quality to the role of cooperation in the human story,” Raihani writes. “If used well, it will deliver riches, but in the wrong hands, or used in the wrong ways, it will bring ruin.” Nimo
The spectacle of James Corden’s disgrace for being rude to waiters at a New York restaurant has been one of the more riveting pieces of ephemera of the last week. This New York Times interview meets the moment: “Happens every day,” Corden grumbles. “It’s happening in 55,000 restaurants as we speak. It’s always about eggs.” Archie
Sport
Football | Goals from Kurt Zouma and Said Benrahma took West Ham to a 2-0 victory over Bournemouth. Zouma’s crucial goal stood despite controversy over an apparent handball in the buildup.
Cricket | South Africa were hoping for a big win in their T20 World Cup opener against Zimbabwe, but the rain foiled their plans and the match was ended early. Meanwhile, Bangladesh beat the Netherlands with a nine-run win.
Football | Aston Villa have named Unai Emery as their new manager after the Premier League club paid the Spaniard’s €6m (£5.25m) release clause at Villarreal. Villa approached Emery as they looked to make a quick appointment following the sacking of Steven Gerrard last week.
The front pages
There’s a full rundown of Tuesday’s front pages here, but the usual quick summary follows:
The Guardian goes with “Unite or die – Sunak’s warning to Tory MPs”, under a picture of Sunak receiving a hero’s welcome at the Conservative party head office in London.
The Times and the Telegraph also feature Sunak’s ominous warning to his own party in their headlines, while the Financial Times says “Sunak vows to get a grip on economy” and reports that “markets look forward to ‘dullness dividend’ in the wake of Truss turbulence”.
The Mail’s headline reads “A new dawn for Britain”, while the Sun produces a mocked-up image of Sunak holding a lightsaber under the headline “The force is with you, Rishi”. Finally, the Mirror asks “Who voted for you?” under the banner “Our new (unelected) PM”.
Today in Focus
Is the UK ready for Rishi Sunak?
The job Rishi Sunak faces could barely be bigger: to regain credibility with the markets, to turn around Britain’s current status as an international laughing stock, and to refashion his party into one that can maintain even the minimum standards of internal discipline. All the while, he will need to explain why he is rejecting the constant calls to hold a general election.
Nosheen Iqbal and the Guardian’s deputy political editor, Jessica Elgot take us through a day of high drama in Westminster.
Cartoon of the day | Steve Bell
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Last year, Avon and Somerset’s police force had one of the country’s worst rape conviction rates, at just 1.6 %, and it ranked 40th out of 43 forces for its performance on tackling rape and sexual assault. This might be why it was the first force participate in Operation Bluestone – a project aiming to tackle the crisis in rape prosecutions. A year and a half after the scheme’s launch, there are reports of real change in the area. Its charge rate has tripled to 10% and officers are arresting suspects at twice the previous rate. The project is multipronged – focusing on victim support and an “Al Capone” approach, meaning that suspects are at the centre of investigations. This might all seem like basic procedure, but often it hasn’t been implemented. Things are nowhere near where they need to be, points out Det Supt Ed Yaxley, Bluestone’s research lead, but he says: “The data is telling us that this is the start of something really important.”
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Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s crosswords to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until tomorrow.
