Good morning. You may not know the names of Suzanne Evans, Ben Habib, Douglas Carswell, or Patrick O’Flynn – but Rupert Lowe definitely does. Lowe is the Reform UK MP who has fallen out in spectacular fashion with Nigel Farage, and is now waging an online campaign against the leader who he says thinks of himself as “the Messiah”. Evans, Habib, Carswell and O’Flynn were all once prominent allies of Farage – and their fate does not suggest that this story will end with Lowe and Farage having an ice-cream together.
But if the arc of Lowe’s case is familiar, it is unfolding in a very different context. This time, the fight is between two MPs in a party that claims to have designs on forming the next government, and recognises that it must professionalise rapidly if it is to have any hope of doing so. The trouble is, both sides say that the other one is the roadblock to that process – and in the past, any fight between Farage’s ego and the view of the rank and file has only had one winner.
So who’s right – and does this particular pantomime bust-up pose a threat to its pre-eminent dame? For today’s newsletter, we’ll go deep into the Reform UK undergrowth, with Giles Dilnot, the editor of ConservativeHome, and Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London, as our guides. Get your galoshes, and join us after the headlines.
Five big stories
UK politics | Keir Starmer has told Labour MPs that he is ready to cut working age health and disability benefits, arguing that the current system is “discouraging people from working”. Amid deep disquiet from charities and some Labour backbenchers, billions in new cuts are expected ahead of the chancellor’s spring statement at the end of the month.
Ukraine | Ukraine targeted Moscow early on Tuesday in possibly its largest ever drone attack on the Russian capital, reportedly killing at least one person. The attack came as both sides attempt to strengthen their position ahead of ceasefire negoitations, with US and Ukrainian officials due to meet in Saudi Arabia today.
UK news | A cargo ship and an oil tanker carrying jet fuel collided in the North Sea on Monday, leaving one person missing and black smoke billowing from a burning slick on the sea. The coastguard said that the search for the missing crew member was called off last night but that 37 others had been accounted for.
Microplastics | The pollution of the planet by microplastics is significantly cutting food supplies by damaging the ability of plants to photosynthesise, according to a new assessment. The analysis estimates that between 4% and 14% of the world’s staple crops of wheat, rice and maize is being lost.
Philippines | The former Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte has been taken into custody after the international criminal court issued a warrant for his arrest for his so-called “war on drugs”. Duterte is accused of crimes against humanity over his crackdowns, in which as many as 30,000 people were killed.
In depth: ‘Nigel has a long track record of not being able to handle anyone else stealing his limelight’
It’s quite hard to summarise the fight between Rupert Lowe (above) and Nigel Farage, but let’s give it a go. Lowe – the MP for Great Yarmouth who shot to prominence after Elon Musk’s thoroughly surprising endorsement of him as a replacement for Farage – gave an interview to the Daily Mail last week in which he warned that it was not clear whether Farage’s “messianic qualities” would distil into “sage leadership”, and said that he would not be standing for Reform again unless his leader got better at delegating.
Then Reform said it was investigating two complaints from female employees about bullying in Lowe’s offices, that he had threatened violence against the party chair, Zia Yusuf – and that the latter was with the police. This rolled on over the weekend, culminating in the KC appointed to investigate allegations against Lowe denying his claims that she told him she was shocked at the process, and Lowe threatening a libel suit against the party – saying that the bullying allegations were not about him personally.
Lowe’s proximity to this particular bin fire is not especially surprising to those of us who followed the fortunes of Southampton football club during his chairmanship, sad to say; still, it’s difficult to reach a definitive view on whether his interview was retaliation for the investigation, the investigation was retaliation for the interview, or a bit of both.
What’s perhaps more significant is what it suggests about the state of Reform. “It would be a massive embarrassment to lose one of your five MPs,” Giles Dilnot said. “People are entitled to ask how you would manage 120 MPs if you got that far. It is not unrecoverable – but it is much more than a little local difficulty.”
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What is the fight really about?
As well as the allegations about Lowe’s conduct, which he denies, the disagreement here boils down to a question that faces any upstart party: how to professionalise. Reform says that Lowe’s alleged conduct suggests he is not a fit person to be an MP, and that the process he is facing is evidence that it is a serious party; on the other hand, as Eleni Courea writes in this useful analysis piece:
Lowe and his allies argue that his treatment proves his point: that Reform UK is entirely under Farage’s thumb, a protest movement directed by one man rather than the professional political party he promised to turn it into.
Dilnot spoke to Reform sources for two excellent pieces on the state of the party and the row over Lowe, and suggests that a central issue is the position of Yusuf. Part of his job is to try to build a proper base for the party to campaign from in future. Ben Habib, who left the party not long ago after a similarly interminable saga, told GB News: “Zia Yusuf has systematically been … displacing people and in the process rubbishing their reputation.”
Dilnot said: “In professionalising, they have to do away with the enthusiastic amateur, and try to put people who know what they’re doing in positions on the ground. Yusuf has put a lot of noses out of joint in trying to do that. But Nigel has supported him every time.”
That process is difficult in part because it may make the rank and file question whether they have enough of a say, Tim Bale said. “If you look at what motivates people to go out and be active, it tends to be people quite involved in the life and soul of the party at a local level. That has to come from them feeling they have some meaningful input into the party’s direction.”
Bale recently conducted research that suggested Reform members are more likely than other party members to post about the party online – but less likely to go out leafleting. “There is a tradeoff,” he said. “It has benefited Farage to be able to make quick decisions. But you need boots on the ground – especially in local elections, which are essential to creating a sense of momentum.”
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Is Farage’s ego a problem?
It would be hard to deny that Farage has been the dominant force behind his movement’s success for the last 20 years – but there are those who think that to take the next step, Reform has to grow beyond him.
“Nigel has a long track record of not being able to handle anyone else becoming popular and stealing his limelight,” Dilnot said. “He does not like rivals, and he says that he knows he has to build a broader team, but it remains to be seen whether he will do it.” In his piece for ConservativeHome yesterday, Dilnot reported sources saying that Lowe’s growing profile had been the subject of several conversations at Reform HQ.
Of course, every party has its internal divisions. But while Reform has matured, there is little sense yet that its factions have much to do with policy positions – like the European Research Group and the One Nation group in the Tory party, for example – rather than personalities.
“They still have an extremely leadership-focused view of how the party should be run,” Bale said. “It’s very difficult for people to set out positions that differ strongly from Farage. Other parties are broader churches.”
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Is there a policy dimension here?
Well, sort of. Lowe, perhaps mindful of Elon Musk’s view, has appeared willing to entertain the idea that Reform should court voters who might be sympathetic to the outright extremist Tommy Robinson. Lowe has said that Farage wants to “silence” his calls for mass deportations. He has also claimed not to know why Robinson was in prison – he should read First Edition – and said that although “not right for Reform”, he deserves “credit for the things that he’s done”.
But it’s not clear whether that view really has enough purchase within Reform’s membership to make it a viable wedge issue for Lowe. “Whatever you think about Farage, he has managed to detach people’s enthusiasm for his views from the extreme end of the spectrum,” Bale said. “It would be a pretty small minority within Reform who want to see them move towards Robinson.”
“Nigel is still wildly popular,” Dilnot said. “But the more nationalist element are pretty unhappy with him.” There is a group who like Lowe, too, even if it doesn’t tend to override their devotion to the leader: “Nigel’s biggest problem is the people who do like him, but also think Rupert’s great.”
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So where does all this leave Reform?
There will certainly be those who say that some rats-in-a-sack style fighting within the party is unlikely to bother voters. And it’s true that the question of Lowe’s fate is unlikely to be on many people’s minds by the time of the next election.
But if the row doesn’t end quickly, and with the party publicly united behind their leader, it is likely to metastasise into a useful attack for the Tories and Labour – the idea that Farage is a captain with a very fine tricorn hat, but no ship.
The other big question may feel almost incidental – but it is likely to be the vital one in the long term. “There is a worry, which Rupert Lowe hinted at, that Nigel doesn’t have the appetite to do the detailed policy work,” Dilnot said. He pointed to a recent policy launch promising to reduce energy bills at the same time as legislating to put energy cables underground rather than on pylons, a vastly expensive undertaking,
“One of the major attacks that the Conservatives and Labour want to land is that this is policy written on the back of a fag packet outside the pub,” he added. “That isn’t entirely true – there are people within Reform who want to build a more serious agenda – but they have a long way to go to prove it.”
What else we’ve been reading
One might imagine national park status might be a cause for unalloyed celebration, but Kate McClusker has gone to Galloway in Scotland, where the first new national park designation in 15 years has caused a schism between locals, divided over the economic benefits and the disruption to the area a flood of tourists could bring: “It’s been more divisive than the Scottish referendum vote”. Toby Moses, head of newsletters
Labour’s rhetoric on planned cuts to disability benefits frame health not as a condition for “a good life for yourself, but to be a good worker for the nation”, writes Frances Ryan. She makes a persuasive case that the view that underpins this approach is that disabled people should be punished for not trying hard enough. Archie
Aren’t pets supposed to be good for our mental health? That’s not always the case – and inspired by her own anxiety and exhaustion after getting Leo the cat, Sarah Ann-Harris investigates the “new pet blues“ that affects so many owners, and why it’s so important to push through to reap the benefits for you and your new furry friend. Toby
Ammar Kalia discusses his therapeutic journey in this week’s one change that worked, with a familiarly unhelpful tale of paying £80 to sit and cry in front of a silent therapist before finding the right fit for him – seven years later he’s still reaping the benefits a good therapist can offer. Toby
The LRB has a superb, bone-dry dispatch from the Conservative Political Action Conference at National Harbor in Maryland by Antonia Hitchens, with an accumulation of detail that’s more telling than any commentary. Also informed me that after Elon Musk’s son picked his nose and wiped it on the Resolute desk in the Oval Office, Trump sent it out to be cleaned. Archie
Sport
Football | Sir Jim Ratcliffe has launched a blistering attack on Manchester United players, stating some are “not good enough” and “overpaid”, referencing Casemiro, Antony, Jadon Sancho, Rasmus Højlund and André Onana when doing so. The club’s co-owner told the BBC: “Whether we like it or not, we’ve inherited those things and have to sort that out”.
Football | Newcastle moved up to sixth, level on points with fifth-placed Manchester City, after Bruno Guimarães earned Eddie Howe’s side a 1-0 win at West Ham.
Skiing | The Norwegian ski federation has suspended a ski jumping coach and an equipment manager over their alleged role in a cheating scandal which shook the world championships this weekend. The federation said coach Magnus Brevig and equipment manager Adrian Livelten were suspected of modifying ski suits by sewing in an extra seam in an attempt to create more lift in the air.
The front pages
The Guardian’s front-page lead is “Number of jobless ‘indefensible’, says PM amid criticism over cuts”. The Times has “Eco-disaster fears after ships collide in North Sea” – the Mirror calls this “North Sea inferno” a “Catastrophe” and the Metro agrees with “Catastrophic”, while the i has details: “Jet fuel spills into North Sea”. The Telegraph goes with “Farmers hit again in Rayner land grab”. “Found … but is UK stuck with him?” is the Daily Mail’s story about an immigration case. “Defence staff lose 4 phones every day” is top story in the Express. And the splash in the Financial Times is “Wall St plunges after Trump’s refusal to rule out recession”.
Today in Focus
Can Europe defend itself alone?
The EU has announced an unprecedented new defence drive – but will it be enough to deter Russia? Jon Henley reports
Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
For this week’s edition of the The Filter, the Guardian’s sensible shopping newsletter, Jane Hoskyn took on a brave endeavour: testing out loads of mattresses to figure out which will give you, dear reader, the best night’s sleep.
“As a 53-year-old woman who never reached five feet tall, I wouldn’t be anyone’s first pick for a mattress-lifting team,” Jane writes of her valiant quest. “Bed-in-a-box mattresses commonly weigh more than 50kg and come vacuum-packed so tightly that you have to be careful not to get knocked out when you cut the wrapping.”
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.
