Good morning.
It has been almost a year since Nicola Sturgeon let Scotland know she was standing down as first minister. After eight years, she was out of energy and stamina, she said, and could no longer do the job. The shock resignation sent the SNP into turmoil, and triggered the party’s first leadership election in two decades. The 12 months since have been challenging for the SNP’s new leader, Humza Yousaf. He was no amateur coming into the job, having spent 11 years in various ministerial roles, including health secretary during the pandemic, but the past year has been particularly fraught.
Sturgeon’s resignation brought about renewed speculation about the police investigation into possible fundraising fraud. Things only got worse when Sturgeon, her husband and the SNP’s then-treasurer were arrested for questioning. Even though they were all released without charge, the scandal continues to dog Yousaf. And on top of the political crises, Yousaf has been dealing with a challenging personal situation, as his wife’s family were stuck in Gaza when the war broke out. Though her parents have been safely evacuated, a number of her relatives remain there.
For today’s newsletter, I spoke with Libby Brooks, the Guardian’s Scotland correspondent, about the year since Sturgeon’s resignation and what it could mean for the SNP’s fortunes at the next general election. That’s right after the headlines.
Five big stories
Labour | The Labour party has withdrawn its support for Azhar Ali, its candidate for this month’s Rochdale byelection, in the wake of controversial comments he made about the 7 October attacks. Ali suggested Israel had deliberately relaxed security after warnings of an imminent threat. The party cannot replace Ali because the deadline has passed so he will remain as a Labour candidate on the ballot paper, but if elected he will not hold the party whip and will sit as an independent MP.
Israel-Gaza war | Joe Biden has added his voice to growing international calls for Israel to drop plans for an all-out military assault on the city of Rafah, in southern Gaza, after a ferocious hostage rescue operation that killed dozens of Palestinians.
Health | Researchers have taken a major step towards a blood test that can predict the risk of dementia more than a decade before the condition is formally diagnosed in patients.
Horizon scandal | The former Post Office boss Paula Vennells gave Fujitsu a bonus contract in 2013 to take over an archive of branch data, despite warnings such a move would destroy evidence that might clear operators, whistleblowers have said.
Crime | Police officers from the Devon and Cornwall force accused of subjecting seven women to abuse including rapes, beatings, and psychological torment were allegedly protected by their force, with two appointed to roles protecting women from assault and harm.
In depth: ‘The mood in the SNP has changed significantly, and a party known for its discipline is now openly arguing with itself’
Humza Yousaf has been in an uphill battle to rebuild the SNP’s reputation after a series of scandals rocked his party over this past year. Can Yousaf reverse the political trajectory in time?
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The continuity candidate in crisis
“One of the things that was rock solid throughout Sturgeon’s tenure was the public’s belief in SNP competence – that has fallen away significantly over the past 12 months, while voters have watched the Scottish government lurch from crisis to crisis,” Libby says.
When he was running to be leader of the SNP, Yousaf made it clear that he was the continuity candidate, to differentiate himself from Kate Forbes and push forward Sturgeon’s progressive agenda. Sturgeon’s abrupt departure created a vacuum and he promised to stop the party from coming apart at the seams. But Yousaf has not managed to stabilise the SNP, largely due to a succession of scandals and crises that have made it difficult for him to pave any kind of political path.
Operation Branchform, the investigation into the party’s finances, has been the biggest ongoing crisis Yousaf has had to deal with. Nobody who was arrested and questioned is in government or part of the SNP hierarchy any longer, but the investigation continues to hurt the party’s reputation, as the opposition and even members of his own party wield the inquiry like a hammer against Yousaf.
Despite his loyalty to Sturgeon, Yousaf has delayed, redrawn or reversed a number of key policy commitments including a ban on alcohol advertising, a controversial bottle and can recycling scheme and plans to protect marine areas from over-fishing. “Early on, it was clear that Yousaf wanted to make a clean sweep of a range of inherited policies that were causing serious unhappiness amongst voters as well as sections of his own party, but he was also stuck with two hugely problematic areas that Sturgen had not resolved - gender recognition reform and independence strategy,” Libby explains.
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Popularity contest
Yousaf was always going to have big shoes to fill because Nicola Sturgeon was unusually popular for any political leader in the UK. Even as she exited political life, she remained Scotland’s most popular leader, and during the height of her appeal her approval ratings were stratospheric. “Even now, there is still a great deal of residual fondness and support for Sturgeon, although this may have eroded after the UK Covid Inquiry revealed a culture of secrecy around her handling of the pandemic,” Libby says. “And so, he has had this huge challenge of really imprinting himself on the minds of the electorate.”
As Libby and the Guardian’s Scotland editor, Severin Carrell, explain in this article, with both party and government lurching from crisis to crisis since last February, Yousaf simply hasn’t had to breathing space to leave an impression on voters, and polling shows significant numbers remain unimpressed or undecided. “What we’ve also seen is significant public sympathy for his position on Gaza – both when he spoke emotionally about his own in-laws being trapped there and when he was one of the first leaders to call for a ceasefire, public approval followed.” But the most recent polls indicate that the party could sustain significant losses at the next general election, potentially losing 24 of its 43 seats.
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The threat from Labour
For the first time in over a decade, Scottish Labour stands a real chance to win a substantial number of seats. “People’s constitutional preferences are decoupling from their preferences at the ballot box for the first time since 2014,” Libby says. Every election of the past decade has, to some degree, been a proxy for the independence referendum. But the political tides have changed in the past 12 months, allowing for Scottish Labour to independence voters directly, by urging them to defect from the SNP to “boot the Tories out”.
In the Rutherglen and Hamilton West byelection, Labour trounced the SNP with a 20-point swing. If that sort of movement was repeated in a general election, the SNP could lose dozens of safe seats, so the stakes could not be higher for Yousaf.
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The platform
Libby points out that Yousaf and the SNP have responded to this political shift by turning down the dial on the independence issue. “After the thrashing they received in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West byelection, they got a lot of feedback on the doorsteps there that the party was too focused on leaving the UK and did not say enough about the cost of living crisis,” Libby says.
The other reason for the change in emphasis might be found in a headache-inducing amendment that the party adopted at its conference in October. It stated that if the SNP wins a majority of Scotland’s Westminster seats at the general election, it will have the mandate to negotiate independence with the UK government. The problem is that they have set a target that all of the current polls suggest they are going to struggle to meet – a quandary the SNP does not want to draw attention to.
The mood in the SNP has changed significantly over the past year. A party that was known for its discipline is now openly arguing with itself. “I think the party just feels like it’s in disarray in a way that it hasn’t previously been, and a lot of the loyalty has definitely evaporated,” Libby says. And the public is attune to this shift: “The SNP has been in government for a long time and people are tired.”
What else we’ve been reading
Avoiding plastics in clothes is pretty difficult, but it is worth trying. Lucianne Tonti lays out where plastic is lurking in our garments and how to minimise it in your wardrobe. Nimo
Much has been written about intermittent fasting since Rishi Sunak revealed his abstentious regime – Amy Fleming does an excellent job of cutting through the diet industry guff to look at what works and, crucially, how to do it without falling into disordered eating habits. Toby Moses, head of newsletters
It’s pancake day! Yotam Ottolenghi’s alternative recipes (pictured above) are a must if you fancy a change from lemon and sugar. Toby
Hannah Ellis-Petersen and Aakash Hassan report on how Delhi’s landfills are driving up methane emissions and affecting the health and wellbeing of local residents is eye-opening. Nimo
ICYMI: Keir Starmer spent time with Vogue, and while he remains largely inscrutable and, as the interviewer, Zing Tsjeng puts it, “relentlessly on-message”, a genuine drive to improve the country does at least come across. Toby
Sport
Football | Chelsea scored twice in stoppage-time to inflict a 3-1 home loss on Crystal Palace. Conor Gallagher, who spent the 2021-22 season on loan with the Eagles, struck twice to complete the comeback, becoming the first Chelsea player to score a 90th-minute winner in the Premier League since he did precisely the same at Selhurst Park in October 2022.
Darts | Teenage darts sensation Luke Littler has won the opening Players Championship event of the season, while Gerwyn Price withdrew halfway through his third-round match against Brendan Dolan.
Tennis | Emma Raducanu went out in the first round of the Qatar Open, losing 6-0, 7-6 (6) to Anhelina Kalinina, the world No 30. It’s another difficult setback for the world No 262 as she attempts to rebuild form as she returns from injury.
The front pages
“Labour cuts ties with Rochdale candidate over Israel comments” is the Guardian’s lead today. “Labour suspends candidate after Israel-Hamas conspiracy theory remarks” says the i, while the Daily Mail is less measured: “Keir is forced to axe Israel slur candidate”. “Braverman: ‘Don’t make people feel guilty for being white’” – that’s the Daily Telegraph while the Times has “We’ll build more homes in the right places, vows PM”. “Sarah killer stabbed in prison” is the Daily Mirror’s splash, about Sarah Payne’s murderer, Roy Whiting. “Dementia can be predicted 15 years before diagnosis” is the top story in the Daily Express. “Playing Field Idiocy” – the Metro has a report about costly PFI contracts for mowing schools’ grass. “Private equity bosses’ shares rise by £40bn as assets surge” – lucky for some, in the Financial Times.
Today in Focus
Is Biden too old to be president?
Joe Biden’s age is increasingly becoming a political liability – even though Trump is just four years younger. David Smith reports
Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Three years ago, freelance travel writer Lydia Swinscoe gave up the lease on her London flat to embrace a peripatetic existence that helped her discover parts of the world – and her former home city – she never could have otherwise.
Living mostly with what she can stuff in a 65-litre backpack, she has found short-term lodgings in everywhere from Dorset to Tbilisi and even London. In fact, the experience has helped her discover many sides of the British capital’s 36 boroughs, “simply because I’ve been able to get acquainted with local hotspots, stroll down streets I’ve never seen before and discover some of the best restaurants that non-residents might usually miss”.
Swinscoe writes about the downsides (a break-in attempt, a cat-sitting gig gone awry) and the upsides (leaning on friends and strangers for help) in the latest instalment of the series Why I quit.
Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until tomorrow.
