Good morning.
The news that leftist climate scientist Claudia Sheinbaum won this weekend’s Mexican presidential election – becoming the country’s first female, and Jewish, leader – was highly anticipated. It was the largest election in Mexico’s history, with nearly 100 million people registered to vote, and had two women leading the race in a country struggling to deal with endemic violence against women and girls.
Sheinbaum will succeed her political mentor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known as Amlo, with a promise to keep his legacy going. He founded the Morena party in 2011, and by 2018 he had shattered Mexico’s traditional political landscape on an anti-corruption platform that promised to make the country more equal and less violent. Six years later his achievements are partial but Morena, and Amlo himself, remain incredibly popular and have paved the way for a landslide victory for Sheinbaum.
For today’s newsletter I spoke with Raúl Zepeda Gil, a lecturer in development studies of Latin America at the Oxford international development department, about this landmark election and what it means for Mexico. Here are the headlines.
Five big stories
Immigration and asylum | Labour will launch an investigation into the treatment of migrant workers in the British social care sector if it wins the election, the party has announced, after dozens of cases of alleged exploitation were uncovered. Yvette Cooper, the shadow home secretary, called the allegations revealed by the Guardian “a disgrace”, accusing the government of turning a blind eye to the problem.
Economy | Consumer spending growth is at its weakest in more than three years as higher council tax bills and the rising cost of broadband and mobile phones eat into household budgets, a report has said. The monthly snapshot of credit and debit card activity from Barclays found an improvement in consumer confidence as a result of falling inflation was not leading to a pickup in spending.
Environment | The drinking water regulator for England and Wales has brought only three prosecutions against water companies for providing poor quality water since 2021, despite 362 instances in which water was flagged as being unfit for human consumption.
UK politics | Nigel Farage has announced he intends to stand as an MP and lead the Reform party for the next five years. The former Ukip and Brexit party leader will stand in Clacton, Essex, and says he changed his mind while spending time on the campaign trail.
Education | Spending on each schoolchild’s education in England has suffered an unprecedented 14-year freeze since the Conservatives came to power, according to Britain’s leading economics thinktank, the IFS.
In depth: ‘Sheinbaum could be in for a very, very difficult term’
After six years in power, this election was framed as a referendum on Amlo’s leadership. Though he has weathered numerous controversies and failed to deliver on a number of of his initial promises, the outgoing president remains popular. This is largely because of his economic policies: under Morena there was a minimum wage hike, direct cash transfers and subsidies for struggling families, among other measures, lifting an estimated five million people out of poverty. “President López Obrador has essentially built a political base on cash transfers like some other presidents in Latin America,” Zepeda Gil says.
Sheinbaum has promised more of the same: “more rights, a welfare state, education, health, access to housing, and that a living wage is a right, not a privilege”.
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The first female president
Sheinbaum’s win comes during a broader feminist battle to secure rights for women across Mexico. Last October, the supreme court decriminalised abortion across the country, a major step towards enshrining reproductive rights in law. Electoral reform that mandated gender parity has meant that women make up half of congress, with many occupying senior roles in political and judicial office – a remarkable feat considering that women only gained the right to vote in 1953. For context, women only make up 28% of lawmakers in the US House of Representatives.
These gains in representation have not necessarily converted into real power or change, however. “The problem is that, beyond female representation in politics, there has not been much translation into policy so far – though this win is symbolically important,” Zepeda Gil says. While they occupy some of the most senior positions in the most important institutions in the country, there are still many issues that plague women. Femicide rates remain high – around 10 women are murdered in Mexico every day and thousands more are missing. Violence against women and girls also often goes unpunished.
Sheinbaum carries this tension herself in many ways – she is considered a protege of Amlo, who was a political mentor to her. However, Amlo has had a “disdain” towards Mexico’s burgeoning feminist movement, Zepeda Gil says, often finding himself at odds with women’s rights groups. Protests erupted in 2021 after his party nominated Félix Salgado Macedonio as a candidate for governor of Guerrero State despite accusations by five women of rape and sexual harassment. Amlo defended Salgado, accusing critics of “politicking”. During the pandemic, his government cut funding for women’s shelters and he has accused feminist groups of being infiltrated by conservatives who aim to attack his government. “While we would hope the next president will address these issues there is no guarantee that will happen,” Zepeda Gil says.
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Political violence
More than thirty candidates were reportedly killed during this particularly bloody election cycle. According to the Wall Street Journal, more than 200 government officials, candidates and activists have been shot since September.
“To be precise, the political violence is localised to where criminal organisations have widespread presence and where they are competing,” Zepeda Gil says. Criminal organisations that are involved mainly with drug trafficking, human trafficking or oil tapping have been focused on the thousands of local elections, likely because it is easiest to influence politics at that level. “Vice versa, if you don’t see political violence somewhere, that means there might be some kind of soft agreement with criminal organisations to guarantee protection, even if the local authority is not involved in criminality. There are a wide range of agreements between criminal organisations and politicians: some might be corrupt, some even might be directly involved but mostly it’s about protection.”
The government simply does not have the resources to deal with the scale of the problem, creating an atmosphere of impunity. “The president promised to increase the number of police and military officers in the election but as these are massive elections there are not enough resources to protect every candidate in Mexico,” Zepeda Gil says.
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The big issues facing Sheinbaum
Sheinbaum will be riding high from this landslide victory, but significant problems await her. Her predecessor has left her with a significant budget deficit and sluggish economic growth, as well as the growing and unwieldy problem of security and crime. And then there is the Donald Trump-shaped elephant in the room. If he wins the US election, the Mexican government could be completely derailed, and forced to focus on managing what could become a highly volatile political and economic relationship. Both of the previous governments had to concede a lot during Trump’s last stint as president, effectively becoming “a second border force for the US government” to avoid a trade war, Zepeda Gil says – although the Morena government did draw the line at a “safe third country” agreement that would have effectively made Mexico responsible for all asylum seekers looking to enter the US from Central America.
“With tight fiscal constraints, climate change and Donald Trump in the presidency, Sheinbaum could be in for a very very difficult term,” Zepeda Gil adds.
What else we’ve been reading
After three decades, the African National Congress party has lost its majority in South Africa’s parliament. Rachel Savage helpfully lays out in her analysis what might be next for the party. Nimo
Over the years Donald Trump has been called authoritarian many a time. David Smith takes a look at how valid comparisons are between the former president and the most infamous fascist of modern history: Adolf Hitler. Nimo
I loved Kate Mossman’s Observer interview with one of the UK’s foremost pop stars, Charli XCX. Hannah
Jessica Pressler’s interview (£) with the king of reality TV himself Andy Cohen is packed full of hilarious anecdotes of his long and winding career in entertainment, and touches on the nagging fear that cancellation could come for him at any moment. Nimo
José Pizarro has a recipe for anchovy-spiked roast chicken with Moorish chickpea and watercress salad. Buenos días indeed! Hannah
Sport
Football | Chelsea have confirmed the appointment of Enzo Maresca on a five-year contract, the new manager having accepted the challenge of returning the club to the Champions League as a bare minimum. Maresca, 44, led Leicester to the Championship title over this past season – his only full campaign as a head coach – and he succeeds Mauricio Pochettino, who left Chelsea by mutual consent two weeks ago.
Tennis | Aryna Sabalenka thrashed American Emma Navarro 6-2 6-3 while fourth seed Elena Rybakina eased to a 6-4 6-3 victory over Ukraine’s Elina Svitolina at the French Open. Russian 17-year-old Mirra Andreeva then outclassed Varvara Gracheva 7-5 6-2. Novak Djokovic of Serbia overcame a knee injury and a tough fall as he rallied past No. 23 seed Francisco Cerundolo of Argentina 6-1, 5-7, 3-6, 7-5, 6-3 to reach the French Open quarter finals on Monday in Paris.
Cricket| South Africa began their T20 World Cup with a victory at the Nassau County International Cricket Stadium, taking 16.4 overs to chase Sri Lanka’s modest 77.
The front pages
The Guardian leads with “Tory alarm as Farage takes control of Reform UK”. The Financial Times has “Twin blow to Tories as Farage enters the fray and polls predict a drubbing”. Above a picture of Nigel Farage, the Daily Telegraph says “I’m back to lead the revolt”. He’s in a composite picture with Rishi Sunak for the Daily Mirror’s splash which says the PM faces a “Meltdown” at the polls. It’s “Rishi’s darkest hour” says the Daily Mail while the Metro has “Tories face a record rout”, crediting a YouGov poll with the prediction. “Farage blows apart Tory election plan with surprise challenge to Sunak” – that’s the i, and the clearly rattled Daily Express has this bit of old chestnuttery for us: “Vote for Farage ‘is more likely to end up with Starmer in No10’”.
Today in Focus
Has there been a purge of the left wing of the Labour party?
Keir Starmer once promised to lead a ‘broad church’ Labour party. After a week in which Diane Abbott and Faiza Shaheen have complained about their treatment, does that still hold true? Aletha Adu and Aditya Chakrabortty report
Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
You might think a veteran political journalist would be above writing a shaggy dog story, particularly during a frenetic election period. But John Crace is of a different breed. So smitten is he with his beloved cockapoo, Herbie, he has written a book about him, The Adventures of Herbert Hound (which will be published in October), and even had a tattoo of his pet inked on his arm.
It was “love at first sight” when he first saw him 13 years ago, he writes for the Guardian’s Pet I could never forget series, and he has since become an irreplaceable member of the household. “He seldom barks, never causes trouble and takes us for walks when he feels we need the exercise. He’s just happy being an equal member of the family.”
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Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.
