Good morning. Yesterday, European leaders attended an emergency meeting in Paris to discuss how best to respond to the shift in Ukraine policy from the US under Donald Trump. Today, US and Russian officials will meet in Saudi Arabia for preliminary peace talks. And while Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that there can be no “agreements about us without us”, events of the last week have made it clear that the second of these summits is likely to be more consequential than the first.
As shocking as interventions from the US vice-president, JD Vance, and the secretary of defence, Pete Hegseth, were last week, part of their argument was emanating from Washington even before Trump’s first term: the demand that European nations take more responsibility for their own security as the US seeks to shift its focus towards Asia.
Now the urgency of that demand is unmistakable – but a long way from being met in reality. Meanwhile, Keir Starmer says that his proposals for British and other European troops on the ground in Ukraine will only work with significant US support that is not yet on the table.
For today’s newsletter, I spoke to Ed Arnold, a senior research fellow in European security at the Royal United Services Institute, about the new transatlantic defence calculus – and what the divergence of Europe and the US might mean for Ukraine. Here are the headlines.
Five big stories
Prisons | Successive governments’ overreliance on longer prison sentences and desire to seem “tough on crime” have driven the justice system to the brink of collapse, an official review has found. The prison population in England and Wales was more than 85,000 at the end of last year, having increased by more than 40,000 since 1993.
UK news | A woman shot dead at a Kent pub on Valentine’s Day has been named as Lisa Smith. The 43-year-old from Slough was killed in Knockholt near the Three Horseshoes pub shortly after 7pm on Friday, Kent police said.
Conservatives | Kemi Badenoch has said “our country and all of western civilisation will be lost” if efforts to renew the Conservative party and drive forward rightwing ideas globally fail. In a speech at a right-wing conference attended by Jordan Peterson and Nigel Farage, Baedenoch said that “pronouns, diversity policies and climate activism” are a “poison”.
Canada | A plane carrying 80 people crash landed at Toronto Pearson airport on Monday, flipping upside down and leaving at least 18 people injured. Video from the scene showed a Delta Air Lines plane belly-up on snow-covered tarmac and people walking away.
Religion | Pope Francis will remain in hospital for as long as required after tests in recent days showed a “complex clinical picture”, the Vatican has said. The pontiff, 88, was admitted to Gemelli hospital in Rome on Friday with worsening bronchitis and was diagnosed and treated for a respiratory tract infection.
In depth: ‘Europe’s security is at a turning point’
The Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, could hardly have been plainer in his view of European irrelevance to talks over Ukraine’s future yesterday. “I don’t know what they would do at the negotiating table,” he said. “If they are going to sit at the negotiating table with the aim of continuing war, then why invite them there?”
But the rhetoric coming out of Moscow has not really shifted. The consequential change is that now, Lavrov and Vladimir Putin find agreement in the White House. As Vance’s incendiary speech to the Munich security conference last week made abundantly clear, it can no longer be taken for granted that the US and Europe are broadly aligned – on Ukraine, or anything else.
That is the context for Keir Starmer’s pledge to put British troops on the ground in Ukraine as part of an international peacekeeping force – and for European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen’s comments in Paris: “Europe’s security is at a turning point. Yes, it is about Ukraine – but it is also about us.”
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Did Vance and Hegseth’s interventions last week change the calculus for Europe?
In one sense, they were vastly consequential: in the credit they gave Putin for wanting peace and the assertion that European nations must give the far right a place at the political table, the shift from the Biden administration is profound. But on the strategic question of the contribution the US wants from Europe towards Nato, the difference is more about tone than fundamental attitude.
“Presentationally it was certainly different,” Ed Arnold said. “But the fact that the Americans want to deprioritise Europe, and see the Europeans do more themselves, is consistent with US policy for the last decade and a half.”
He pointed to a speech by Barack Obama’s defence secretary Robert Gates in 2011, in which he warned:
If current trends in the decline of European defence capabilities are not halted and reversed, future US political leaders – those for whom the cold war was not the formative experience that it was for me – may not consider the return on America’s investment in Nato worth the cost.”
European defence spending has risen since then, particularly since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – but it still falls short of the Nato 2% of GDP benchmark in most countries. The US spends 3.3% of its GDP on defence, while Trump has called for other Nato powers to hit 5%, a figure that would probably significantly increase budget deficits in a period of weak economic growth.
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What can Europe do in response?
The question of increased defence spending is at the heart of the agenda for Europe’s approach to Ukraine and its own security in the future. Yesterday, the Polish prime minister, Donald Tusk, whose country spends 4.7% of GDP on defence, said: “If we, Europeans, fail to spend big on defence now, we will be forced to spend 10 times more if we don’t prevent a wider war.” Meanwhile, reports from Copenhagen suggested that Denmark is aiming to increase its spending to 3% in 2025 and 2026.
But even if that approach was adopted across Europe, it would take “at least a decade” to see a shift on the ground, Arnold said. “A good example is the Germans moving to 2% and introducing a one-off €100bn defence fund in 2022. That hasn’t really touched the sides. So this is not really a short-term solution.”
In the meantime, French officials briefed yesterday that the meeting was intended to show Ukraine that European countries would stand by their commitments to Kyiv regardless of bilateral talks between the US and Russia. And, Jon Henley reported, host Emmanuel Macron wanted to avoid any language deepening the US-European split. He said last night that he had spoken to Trump and Zelenskyy and that “we will work on this together”.
“It is important for European leaders to act collectively and avoid the ‘bilateralisation’ of their relationships with the US,” said Arnold – that is, to ensure that they do not end up in individual talks with Washington that might weaken their collective position.
“They need to recognise that this is not about ‘surviving Trump’ any more, that Vance is probably the Republican nominee for president in 2028, and that better defence-industrial cooperation across Europe will be essential to strengthening their hand.”
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What about the prospect of sending European troops to Ukraine?
Starmer’s statement that the UK is willing to “put our own troops on the ground if necessary” is obviously significant, and there are other European countries taking a similar position: Sweden’s prime minister, Ulf Kristersson, also said contributing to a force in Ukraine was “absolutely a possibility” yesterday, while Macron raised the possibility last year.
But other countries, including Germany, have sounded a more cautious note: chancellor Olaf Scholz – who is a week away from an election he is likely to lose – said yesterday that while Germany would be prepared to commit soldiers he was “a little irritated” by the “completely premature” debate. Jon Henley’s analysis here lays out some of the divisions within Europe.
One significant factor is that it appears unlikely that any force would be under Nato’s umbrella, with Hegseth saying last week that the organisation’s article 5 guarantee – that an attack on any member would be deemed an attack on all – would not apply.
“The danger is that if it is not properly thought out or resourced, or doesn’t have a proper command structure, it fails,” Arnold said. He warned that it would be too optimistic to simply view any mission as a peacekeeping exercise: “You plan for the worst-case scenario. It is possible that Russia acts in the Baltic, and then the mission changes quickly to a warfighting role.”
There would be major hurdles to putting together such a force in an effective way. “You’re probably talking about 100,000 troops, and that’s really 300,000 given the need to rotate and train troops away from the frontline. Europeans have never been able to muster those kinds of numbers on their own – 300,000 is roughly the total of high readiness forces across all of Nato including the US.
“At the height of Afghanistan, there were about 35,000 non-US troops on the ground. And then there’s the fact that if the Europeans are going to put forces in, they need a real say in what they’re going to do.” In this piece looking at what a European force might look like, Dan Sabbagh reflects some other views on the necessary scale, including the idea that a much smaller “tripwire” force could deter a Russian attack.
Starmer appeared to recognise the limits on Europe’s capacity last night when he said that a US “backstop” would be needed: Patrick Wintour reports here that UK defence officials say that no deployment would be possible without air cover and logistics provided by the US through Nato.
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What does all this mean for the future of Ukraine?
It would be premature to view the talks in Riyadh between the US and Russia as peace negotiations, Arnold said. “These are preparatory talks. There seems to be some confusion among what they want to do.” Last week, Trump’s envoy to Ukraine Keith Kellogg admitted that the US has no plan in mind, but is in “listening mode”.
Nonetheless, the mood music is clear: the US views European – and Ukrainian – interests as secondary to getting a deal done and shifting its focus elsewhere. “The really striking thing, if you stand back, is that Russia and indeed China are seeing transatlantic disunity without having had to do anything to make it happen themselves,” Arnold said. “They will be thinking that they might be watching the Nato alliance crumbling before their eyes.”
For now, at least, it is hard to see what European countries can do quickly that will force Trump to view the situation differently. Continuing Russian occupation of the Ukrainian territory it holds already looked likely – but the prospect of meaningful security guarantees that would protect Ukraine against aggression in the future looks further away than ever.
What else we’ve been reading
The longstanding relationship between cooking and chemistry has led to some truly innovative dishes and techniques – but the pursuit of scientific perfection in the kitchen can make cooking unnecessarily labour intensive and time consuming, writes Alicia Kennedy. Don’t overthink the process because “there’s a lot to enjoy in the imperfections”, she adds. Nimo
Sarah Lee’s behind-the-scenes photos from the Baftas are always a highlight of Hollywood’s award season. This year’s crop includes a particularly cheery shot of rising star winner David Jonsson (above). Archie
The daily ramifications of federal policies can get overshadowed by the drama of national politics. To get a better insight into what people are really feeling, Michael Sainato spoke to immigrant workers about how Donald Trump’s hardline immigration policies are affecting their lives. Nimo
The details in McKay Coppins’ Atlantic piece about James Murdoch’s rift with Rupert are sensational, from his description of his father as a misogynist to his realisation that he was feeding his lawyer questions designed to hurt him – but the piece is much richer than the highlights reel, and worth reading in full. Archie
In recent years, Ecuador has struggled with escalating violence and soaring murder rates as gangs tighten their grip on large parts of the country. Now scientists who research conservation and ecosystems are caught in the cross-fire. Kimberley Brown’s dispatch from Quito has all the details. Nimo
Sport
Football | Less than four years after work on the site got underway and at a cost of £800m, Everton’s new stadium at Bramley-Moore dock opened to fans for the first time last night. 10,000 watched Everton’s under-18s lose to Wigan in the first of three test events required for the club’s licence to open the ground next season.
Cycling | The double Olympic champion and Tour de France winner Geraint Thomas will retire from cycling this year. The 38-year-old announced that he will be bringing the curtain down on a successful 19-year professional career, with British Cycling saying September’s Tour of Britain will be his final race.
Football | Pascal Struijk came off the bench to inspire Leeds to a late 2-1 victory over Sunderland which sent the hosts back to the top of the Championship.
The front pages
“Starmer: US ‘backstop’ vital to deter future Russian attacks on Ukraine” is the Guardian’s lead story. The Mirror says it will be a “Test of strength” when the British PM delivers a “Ukraine warning” to Donald Trump” in what the Metro calls “The Starm offensive” (Keir Starmer was in Paris yesterday and will fly to Washington next week). “Ukraine needs US safety pledges, PM to tell Trump” – that’s the Times, while the Telegraph has “Germany rejects PM’s Ukraine peace plan”. “Zelenskyy ‘will not recognise’ talks with Moscow that exclude Ukraine” – the Financial Times takes a straight news approach, while the i takes the financial angle: “Britain braced for more cuts to boost defence spending over Ukraine crisis”. “Kemi: It’s time to get off our knees and start fighting for Western values” – the Express covers a speech by the Tory leader. “3 out of 4 OAPs living in cold homes” reports the Daily Mail.
Today in Focus
How Trump left Ukraine and Europe reeling
The Guardian’s central and eastern Europe correspondent, Shaun Walker, talks through a seismic week, as Donald Trump sidelined Kyiv and other European capitals from negotiations on the ending the war and then called into question the future of US support for Europe’s security altogether
Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Elizabeth Barbour began studying law at 54, determined to reinvent herself despite the challenges of being an older student. Previously a hand model and real estate developer, she found law school isolating but kept going. A professor recognised her negotiation skills, which led her to family law. Passing the bar on her second attempt, she joined the Legal Aid Society at 60 and found fulfilment in supporting domestic violence survivors.
Now 68, she manages 50 cases, helping women transition to safer lives. Barbour was inspired by her mother’s volunteer work, which drew her to pursue a career centred around helping others. Once fearful of the courtroom, Barbour now loves her job. “I see no end to my career,” she says.
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.
