In spring of last year, Tucker Carlson was on the outs.
The former prime-time host had been booted from the Fox News channel where he had made his name. Ensconced in his remote Maine home, Carlson launched a new show on what was then called Twitter, but as his viewer figures quickly plunged, consensus opinion was that Carlson’s position as a news and political tastemaker, someone capable of creating Republican stars and taking down careers, was over.
It turns out that wasn’t quite right.
The eponymous network that Carlson has since created, where he hosts interviews and delivers screeds to subscribing viewers, certainly lacks the reach of his Fox News show. But he has remained a key figure behind the scenes in Republican politics, someone with the ear of Trump and the ability to influence key positions. He had a headline slot at the Republican national convention, and next month is going on a tour that will feature JD Vance, Trump’s running mate.
“He’s a confidant of Trump, and the GOP is the party of Trump now,” said Heather Hendershot, a professor at Northwestern University’s school of communication whose work focuses on television news and conservative and rightwing media.
That relationship has allowed Carlson to become, if not a kingmaker, then certainly a prince-maker – playing a key role in Vance’s ascendancy to vice-presidential candidate. Vance was a frequent presence on Tucker Carlson Tonight during his run for Senate in Ohio, hopping on to pontificate on all manner of issues that Carlson’s far-right audience like. It was on Carlson’s show that Vance characterized Kamala Harris and others “childless cat ladies”, a comment that resurfaced in July.
The pair stayed close, and Carlson had a key role in one of the most important decisions Trump had to make: choosing his running mate. The New York Times reported that Trump was “wavering” on choosing Vance in June, considering instead the more experienced Marco Rubio or the rich, inoffensive Doug Burgum. Carlson intervened in bombastic fashion, warning Trump that such a move could see him assassinated, according to the Times, and briefing that neither Rubio, the Florida senator, nor Burgum, the governor of North Dakota, could be trusted.
“[Trump’s decision to pick Vance] is kind of backfiring for him now, because Vance keeps revealing his strange attitudes about women, childless women and childless women with cats. So it’s not really helping him that much, and Trump’s team isn’t really pleased about it, I’m sure,” Hendershot said.
“It’s interesting that he had Trump’s ear for that, and his rationale was very sort of strange, or weird, is the word we’re using now, and kind of conspiratorial.”
The conspiratorial aspect has long been key to Carlson’s appeal, and if his influence with Trump has increased – even in the face of texts emerging in 2023 that Carlson had said of Trump: “I hate him passionately” – it has done so as Carlson has become more fringe.
In February, he aired an interview with Vladimir Putin in which he allowed the Russian autocrat to drone on for two hours about everything from a ninth-century Scandinavian prince to how he was allegedly prepared to end his invasion of Ukraine, and also gave a platform to Alex Jones, a conspiracy theorist who was ordered to pay $1.5bn to the families of the Sandy Hook victims after he claimed the 2012 elementary school shooting was faked.
“If anything, he appears to have descended into even more public crackpottery since he left Fox News,” said Matt Gertz, a senior fellow at Media Matters for America, a leftwing advocacy group.
“Someone like that having a direct line to the former president of the United States, who could be the president again, is certainly a matter of great concern.”
Carlson has retained that direct line even as his ability to reach the public appears to have declined. His Tucker Carlson Network has only 200,000 subscribers, the Wall Street Journal reported, while at its peak, his Fox News show attracted millions of viewers a night, although Carlson is popular on other platforms: his podcast is the second most popular on Spotify, behind only Joe Rogan, and his interview with Putin, while widely panned, was a success in terms of numbers: it received more than 200m views when Carlson posted it to X, although it is unclear how many people watched the entire thing.
“His media influence has diminished substantially since he left Fox, but his political influence is still quite potent,” Gertz said.
“Tucker Carlson was really the most powerful single figure in the rightwing media. He was someone who was capable of swinging Republican primary elections, but also someone who was capable of swinging news cycles, of creating messages that would be broadly used by the right.”
Gertz said that wasn’t the case any more, although Carlson remained “a potent political force”.
“His relationship with Donald Trump seems to be the key factor here, he has been able, by publicly supporting him so loudly, to ensure that he still apparently has the ability to contact Donald Trump directly and advise him on key issues.”
Along with the questionable guidance Carlson gave Trump over Vance, he was also key to bringing together Trump and Robert F Kennedy Jr for a meeting at the GOP convention, and Vanity Fair reported that it was Carlson and Donald Trump Jr who helped organize Kennedy’s subsequent withdrawal from the presidential race and endorsement of Trump. The New York Times reported that Carlson connected Trump and Kennedy “on a three-way text message” hours after the attempted assassination on Trump, a message chain that led to the pair speaking on the phone that night.
Where Carlson’s influence ultimately leads will probably depend on whether Trump can win in November. But in the meantime, despite the low views for Carlson’s shows and his lack of a wide public platform, his position as a key figure is demonstrated from “Tucker Carlson live”, a 16-date tour he will embark on in September.
Trump Jr and Vance, two of the people closest to the former president, will appear with Carlson in Florida and Pennsylvania respectively, for a tour that Carlson claims is “going to be interesting and fun as hell”.
While the latter will depend on an individual’s politics and taste, Carlson’s continuing influence at the top of Republican politics is certainly interesting – and could be worrying should Trump be re-elected president.
