Summary
Corporation tax, “woke” culture, policing and ethics were recurring themes in tonight’s Conservative party hustings at the NEC in Birmingham. Below is a summary of each candidate’s key messages in their campaign to become Conservative party leader and the next prime minister:
Liz Truss
Truss says she wants to “push back” against “identity politics of the left” and will legislate for single sex spaces such as domestic violence shelters. “I know that a woman is a woman,” she added.
Truss says she will raise defence spending by 3% of GDP by end of the decade.
In policing, Truss will put more police on the streets to tackle knife and gun crime and wants to introduce league tables to ensure the public can see how their local police forces are performing.
On taxes, Truss says she will reduce taxes as she doesn’t believe in “taking money in taxes and giving it back in benefits” in what she calls “Gordon Brown economics”.
Truss says she will “unleash opportunities of Brexit” into towns and cities across the country while cutting tax and reversing national insurance increase.
Under a Truss leadership, schools opening for longer hours and youth clubs will help young people by “offering alternative places to be”, making them less likely to “fall prey to gangs or go off in the wrong direction.
The extra £13bn the NHS has received has not helped those working on the front line, according to Truss, who says “the lack of local decision making and the layers that must be tackled to get things done is the real problem, rather than a lack of funding”.
Truss says children across the country should have the opportunity to attend grammar schools: “We must allow the good schools to expand and set up more branches.”
Rishi Sunak
Sunak says he has made a U-turn on cutting VAT as there “aren’t that many levers that you can pull to offer support that will actually work”, adding that “it’s not perfect” but that he will deal with the “practical reality of the situation in a way that will make a difference to people in a few weeks’ time”.
Thatcher was the “greatest post-war prime minister” according to Sunak who says that her leadership is the standard he holds himself to.
An increase in stop and search will be introduced if Sunak becomes PM as he vows that he will “never let political correctness stand in the way of keeping the country safe”.
On the NHS, Sunak says patients will pay penalties if they miss medical appointments if he becomes prime minister. Fines will encourage people to cancel appointments in advance and free up time for those in need.
Sunak will “turbo charge” energy security and efficiency creating “an innovative economy to create small modular reactors to power homes in a cleaner, cheaper way”.
HS2 will continue under a Sunak government but the company behind HS2 will be held to account to minimise disruption.
“China represents the biggest threat to UK’s economic and national security,” according to Sunak, but UK policy on Taiwan will remain intact as it is the “best way to prevent aggression against Taiwan from China is by showing Russia that they will not be successful in Ukraine”.
When it comes to unionism, Sunak will carry on with current government policy on Northern Ireland but wants to fix Northern Ireland’s economy from being “dragged out of the orbit of the UK”. In Scotland, Sunak wants to highlight the benefit of the union as he believes in “genuine devolution”. Calling nationalism “very seductive”, Sunak says that he will fight the idea of nationalism by “speaking to people’s hearts as prime minister”.
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Sunak will raise corporation tax if prime minister as it’s “not right to have excessive borrowing”. After the increase, the UK would still havethe lowest corporation tax rate in the G7 and only 70% of companies in the UK will pay higher rate, as the rise only applies to largest companies. For business that are investing, Sunak will offer large tax cuts on Research and Development.
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Sunak will enact the parliament act for Northern Ireland if necessary but wants to secure a negotiated settlement and find a solution to Northern Ireland protocol that “doesn’t involve a trade war”.
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When it comes to unionism, Sunak will carry on with current government policy on Northern Ireland but wants to fix Northern Ireland’s economy from being “dragged out of the orbit of the UK”.
In Scotland, Sunak wants to highlight the benefit of the union as he believes in “genuine devolution.” Calling nationalism “very seductive”, Sunak says that he will fight the idea of nationalism by “speaking to people’s hearts as prime minister”.
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The UK has “unbelievable capacity for compassion in welcoming people from around the world” but government must be “radical” in tackling illegal immigration, says Sunak.
He plans to move away from EU definition of asylum saying it’s “too broad and allows people to exploit it”. Countries that refuse to take back people who have been rejected for asylum in the UK “could pay a price in terms of aid” under Sunak leadership.
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Sunak will not reverse UK policy on Taiwan, adding that the “best way to prevent aggression against Taiwan from China is by showing Russia that they will not be successful in Ukraine”.
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“China represents the biggest threat to UK’s economic and national security,” says Sunak. The UK must be robust in standing up for “values and interests by supporting people in Hong Kong, building up military defences through partnerships with Australia and America, placing aircraft characters in the region and blocking investment from hostile foreign actors”.
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Sunak cannot say he will cancel HS2 but says the company behind HS2 will be held to account to minimise disruption, adding that it’s “not fair” and that as prime minister he will correct harm done to communities impacted by the build.
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Sunak will “turbo charge” energy security and efficiency meaning under his leadership millions of homes would benefit from loft and cavity wall insulation, saving people up to £400 off bills. He adds that he will “create an innovative economy to create small modular reactors to power homes in a cleaner, cheaper way”.
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“Would your government be more honest than the one we have?” asks audience member. “Yes, that’s why I left the government,” Sunak responds, adding that he will appoint an ethics advisor that will have “power and responsibilities to hold people to account”.
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Rishi Sunak says patients will pay penalties if they miss medical appointments if he becomes prime minister. Fines will encourage people to cancel appointments in advance and free up time for those in need. “If we get it right, we free up tonnes of extra healthcare and will get the backlogs down quicker,” he adds.
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Sunak offers condolences to the family of nine-year-old girl, Olivia Pratt-Korbel, shot dead in Liverpool, saying the police must be focused on the right things, use their time effectively and harness the best techniques available, including increasing stop and search measures, which Sunak claims is a “very effective policing tool”. He adds that he will “never let political correctness stand in the way of keeping the country safe”.
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Thatcher was the “greatest post-war prime minister” who was prepared to “make difficult decisions when she had to, to say the things people didn’t want to hear, and that’s the standard I hold myself to”, says Sunak.
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Sunak says he “takes collective responsibility seriously” and that he could not serve in a Truss cabinet as he has “had a period of being at odds with his leader” and “won’t do it again”.
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Sunak says he has made a U-turn on cutting VAT as there “aren’t that many levers that you can pull to offer support that will actually work”, adding that “it’s not perfect” but that he will deal with the “practical reality of the situation in a way that will make a difference to people in a few weeks’ time”.
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“The right thing in these financial circumstances is for a compassionate Conservative government to meet the needs of the most vulnerable in our society,” says Sunak, before adding that he will cut VAT and provide direct financial assistance to those most in need over autumn and winter.
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“Faced with the task of using Trident nuclear weapons, unleashing global annihilation, how do you feel?” asks the chair. “It’s an important duty of the prime minister and I’m ready to do it,” concludes Truss.
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Truss confirms she will bring back grammar schools
“Will you bring back grammar schools?” asks an audience member – “Yes, I will allow new grammar schools. Absolutely.” Truss says she’s a “big fan” of grammar schools and wants to introduce new grammar and free schools. Truss says children across the country should have the opportunity to attend grammar schools: “We must allow the good schools to expand and set up more branches.”
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Schools opening for longer hours and youth clubs will help young people by “offering alternative places to be”, making them less likely to “fall prey to gangs or go off in the wrong direction”, says Truss.
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Truss says people working on the frontline of the NHS are feeling “disempowered” and increasing numbers of people are leaving the profession. “We put the extra £13bn in but people working in the NHS say the lack of local decision making and the layers that must be tackled to get things done is the real problem, rather than a lack of funding.”
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“Parents with children with special educational needs deserve help,” says Truss, as she plans to introduce family hubs and more support in schools. She admits the current government has created a nightmare for parents who have no choice but to “battle the system”.
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Truss will reverse the national insurance increase and will conduct a full tax review looking at business rates to create a fairer economy for small businesses. “The combination of forms that business are required to fill in and the hoops they’re required to jump through” will be “cracked down on” under a Truss leadership.
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Truss says there is an issue with the “culture” in public services that doesn’t reflect the views of the public, adding that she will be the prime minister to ensure single sex spaces are protected. “Sometimes as Conservatives we have been afraid to make Conservative arguments.” Truss says Tories have let the left “dominate the social space” and that she is prepared to be “difficult” in order to “get things done”.
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“What would you do for tenants and landlords?” asks an audience member. “I want to help more people who have been renting to get on to the property ladder.” Truss wants tenants to be able to use their rental history to obtain mortgages in an effort to “help more people own their own home”.
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Truss declines to appoint ethics adviser
“I have always acted with integrity,” Truss says. She believes “ethics and responsibility cannot be outsourced to an adviser”, adding that she will ensure the “correct apparatus” will be in place to facilitate whistleblowing if problems arise in government.
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Truss will put more police on the streets to tackle knife and gun crime and wants to introduce league tables to ensure the public can see how their local police forces are performing, adding that a cultural change must “come from the top” of policing.
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“I’m a Conservative. I believe in low taxes, I believe in companies succeeding, I believe in companies making profits and that’s the platform I’m standing on” says Truss.
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“What country has successfully grown it’s economy through cutting taxes?” asks hustings chair John Pienaar, Truss says cutting corporation taxes will “attract more revenue into treasury” and that UK needs to “compete internationally.”
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“We are facing very difficult times, but we have another issue, the issue of low economic growth.” Truss says she will reduce taxes as she doesn’t believe in “taking money in taxes and giving it back in benefits” in what she calls “Gordon Brown economics.”
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“You saw me as chancellor acting radically to safeguard our economy,” as prime minister, Sunak says he will apply the same urgency to build a “better Britain” where opportunities are the “envy of the world”.
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Sunak matches Truss in her promise to tackle immigration, saying that his plan will “get control of our borders” by “finally getting to grips with illegal migration”.
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Sunak will reform the NHS to prevent “constantly throwing more money at it” and says that he will take on “lefty-woke culture” that seeks to “cancel our values, our history and our women”.
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“Our country welcomed my family as immigrants, allowing them to build a better life,” Sunak opens with a statement on the importance of family, hard work, service and patriotism. “In my family we prioritised hard work,” he says, adding that his upbringing helped him “see the power in small businesses and education” to transform lives.
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“We need a prime minister of courage, judgment, decency and experience. That prime minister is Rishi Sunak,” says Andrew Mitchell MP as he offers support to Sunak.
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“I don’t take ‘no’ for an answer,” Truss says, adding that she delivered the NI protocol bill at the Foreign Office and is prepared to “make tough decisions”. She claims she will “stand up” against Sir Keir Starmer who “doesn’t believe in opportunity and aspiration”.
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Truss says she will legislate for single sex spaces
Truss wants to legislate for single sex spaces such as domestic violence shelters, saying there must be a “push back” against “identity politics of the left”. “I know that a woman is a woman,” Truss adds.
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“We cannot be complacent about security.” Truss says she will raise defence spending by 3% of GDP by end of the decade.
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Truss claims she went into politics as she wants UK to be an “aspiration nation” – “I want to help deliver more for people and open up opportunities and aspiration.” Truss says she will “unleash opportunities of Brexit” into towns and cities across the country while cutting tax and reversing national insurance increase.
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“Liz Truss is the candidate that can unite the party,” says Nadhim Zahawi, the chancellor, as he offers support for Truss when opening the hustings. “Liz is decent, honest, hard-working and above all understands the economics of growth.”
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Birmingham hustings begin
The Conservative hustings is now live in the video link above. Follow along here for updates.
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Protesters chanting “refugees are welcome here” have arrived outside the NEC before tonight’s Tory hustings. Social media footage shows around 50 protesters with placards calling for an end to deportation flights to Rwanda.
Probably about 50 protesters outside the NEC for tonight’s Tory hustings - chanting ‘Tory scum, get out of Brum’ and ‘refugees are welcome here’ pic.twitter.com/LcsMm87KoM
— Dan Bloom (@danbloom1) August 23, 2022
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Tonight’s Conservative leadership hustings, held at the NEC in Birmingham, is due to begin at 7pm and we will be covering it live here.
If you refresh this page at 7pm a live stream of the hustings will also appear at the top.
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Afternoon summary
Sunak has claimed that Truss would “spook” international investors if she threatened the independence of the Bank of England. (See 12.10pm.)
A leading thinktank has criticised a plan from Scottish Power for the government to back a £100bn plan to freeze energy bills for two years. According to the BBC, Kwasi Kwarteng, the business secretary and probable chancellor in a Truss government, expressed some support for the idea at a private meeting last week. (See 2.35pm.) But Torsten Bell, head of the Resolution Foundation thinktank, has dismissed the proposal, which would involve energy companies borrowing the money, but the government underwriting the loans.
We should definitely not do this
— Torsten Bell (@TorstenBell) August 23, 2022
- needlessly complicated
- more expensive than the govt borrowing itself
- bad mechanism for paying back that borrowing (ie future bills) https://t.co/XXBxIwxqye
More constructively, we've got a paper out later this week on what we should do. The increase in the scale of the problem will require a different, not just a bigger, policy response.
— Torsten Bell (@TorstenBell) August 23, 2022
The Labour MP Mary Foy has claimed a reporter broke into her office to find material about Beergate.
That is all from me for today.
A colleague will be picking up the blog later to cover the Tory leadership hustings in Birmingham at 7pm.
The Liberal Democrats have written to Simon Case, the cabinet secretary, accusing Liz Truss of breaching the ministerial code by using Chevening, her grace-and-favour country mansion as foreign secretary, for party political purposes. As Jon Stone reports for the Independent, the Lib Dems have submitted a complaint following reports that Truss used Chevening for a meeting of her campaign team over the weekend.
The Lib Dems are asking for a formal investigation, but it would be surprising if Case were to agree to open one. The rules about using government property for party political events are designed to stop places like No 10 being used for things like fundraising receptions, or telephone canvassing. As Case knows full well, politicians hold meetings where they discuss internal party political matters on government property all the time.
Patel indicates she wants to stay as home secretary
Liz Truss has not won the Tory leadership contest yet, but already her team have been thinking hard about who would serve in her cabinet and there has been considerable speculation that she will appoint Suella Braverman, the attorney general, as her home secretary. (No one has spent much time wondering who would serve as home secretary under Rishi Sunak.) It it thought that Braverman will get the job as a reward for endorsing Truss when she was knocked out of the leadership contest herself, at a time when if Braverman had endorsed Kemi Badenoch instead, perhaps that might have given Badenoch the boost she needed to overtake Truss and become the lead candidate for the Tory right instead, going up against Sunak in the final ballot.
But Priti Patel, the current home secretary, wants to remain in her post, and in an interview with Sky’s Jason Farrell she has made her case to stay. Asked if she wanted to keep her job, she replied:
That’s the choice of the next leader. But the fact of the matter is this party was elected with a very clear manifesto commitment to beat crime, cut crime, but also deliver 20,000 more police officers. I think my record in that time speaks volumes.
Patel has not endorsed publicly endorsed a candidate in the contest. Asked who she wanted to lead the party, she replied:
I’m just not getting involved. I mean I’ve got a job to do. That’s what I’m focused on.
Many countries around the world will not particularly welcome the election of Liz Truss as the next prime minister, Politico reports. In a long article about how the foreign secretary is viewed by governments abroad, Cristina Gallardo and Leonie Kijewski say she has not made a good impression. Here is an extract.
In truth, few foreign powers much like what they’ve seen.
More than a dozen conversations with senior diplomats and insiders from power centers around the world suggest Truss is not exactly a popular choice on the global stage. She will be met with deep scepticism across much of western Europe, and within the Biden White House. There are questions about relations with the new Australian government. She is despised in Moscow and Beijing.
On the other hand, Truss is quite popular in eastern European states, and parts of the Indo-Pacific. So it’s not all bad.
The full article is here.
Truss had no idea about legal aid when she was justice secretary, says former lord chancellor Lord Mackay
Liz Truss, the frontrunner in the Tory leadership contest, has faced criticism today over her record as environment secretary from 2014 to 2016. As Pippa Crerar and Helena Horton report, she cut the grant for the surveillance mechanisms in place to stop water companies polluting rivers.
After serving as environment secretary, Truss spent a year as justice secretary and lord chancellor. Her performance in that job has also come under fire. In an interview with the House magazine to mark his retirement from the House of Lords at the age of 95, Lord Mackay of Clashfern, a very distinguished former Conservative lord chancellor, said that non-lawyers such as Truss and Chris Grayling were not suited to the role. He went on:
I don’t know that Liz Truss had any idea of how legal aid was done either, when she was lord chancellor and justice secretary. You really need to know something about it.
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Labour MP claims reporter broke into her office to find Beergate material
The Labour MP Mary Foy has claimed a reporter broke into her office to find material about Beergate. She was speaking in an interview with my colleague Jessica Elgot in which she also described how the false accusation that she and other Labour figures had broken lockdown rules (the police ultimately concluded there was no case to answer) had been devastating to her in her first years as an MP. The full article is here.
Access to early medical abortions by pill will be made permanent from the end of the month, enabling more women to end early stage pregnancies at home, the Department for Health and Social Care has announced. As PA Media reports, pregnant women in England and Wales will be able to permanently access early medical abortions in their homes from 30 August following a teleconsultation. PA says:
The government first enabled women to have early medical abortions at home, by taking two pills, when the coronavirus pandemic struck.
It changed the regulations during the first coronavirus lockdown in March 2020 as a temporary measure.
But in March this year MPs voted to retain the at-home service, which has become the most popular option.
It follows Wales’s health minister announcing in February, following a consultation, that early abortions at home were being made permanent.
The Department for Health and Social Care (DHSC) said the Abortion Act is being amended to allow permanent access to remote early medical abortions.
These involve two pills being taken at home within the first 10 weeks of pregnancy.
Doctors must certify in “good faith” that the gestation period is below 10 weeks, the DHSC said in its news release.
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According to Simon Jack, the BBC’s business editor, Kwasi Kwarteng, the business secretary and probable chancellor in a Liz Truss administration, left the energy company Scottish Power with the impression that he was broadly receptive to its plan for the government to spend around £100bn over the next two years freezing the energy price cap. But government sources have played down the idea Kwarteng was in favour, Jack says.
Energy firm’s £100 billion plan to freeze energy bills for 2 years. A thread
— Simon Jack (@BBCSimonJack) August 23, 2022
The Chief Executive of one of the UK’s largest energy providers presented Kwasi Kwarteng and Jacob Rees-Mogg with a £100 billion plan to stave off an energy price emergency last week...1/
2/ Keith Anderson, CEO of Scottish Power will present the same plan to Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon later today.
— Simon Jack (@BBCSimonJack) August 23, 2022
The plan would involve the government guaranteeing loans to the energy companies enabling them to keep bills frozen while buying the gas needed....
3/ ...for the next two years.
— Simon Jack (@BBCSimonJack) August 23, 2022
£100 billion is Scottish Power’s best estimate of the difference between what it will actually cost to buy the energy and the current cap of £1971.
Sources close to the company said that Kwasi Kwarteng, tipped to be the next Chancellor....
4/ ..if Liz Truss is next PM, was broadly receptive to the idea. Sources close to Kwasi Kwarteng wouldn’t be drawn on his enthusiasm. “We had a meeting about it – that’s all”.
— Simon Jack (@BBCSimonJack) August 23, 2022
The so called deficit fund would be repaid through bills over the next 20 or so years...
5/ The presence of Ress-Mogg was seen as important as he's a key ally of Liz Truss,
— Simon Jack (@BBCSimonJack) August 23, 2022
Energy cos are urging ministers to consider energy crisis needing COVID scale intervention. The furlough scheme which paid the wages of 11 million people cost around £70 billion.
UPDATE: This is from Ian Mulheirn, head of policy at the Tony Blair Institute thinktank, on the Scottish Power plan.
2 key attributes of this plan:
— Ian Mulheirn (@ianmulheirn) August 23, 2022
- seems like a way to get households to pay the private cost of borrowing rather than the (much cheaper) government cost of borrowing
- it doesn't entail any redistribution so poorer people will pay proportionately much more. Just over 20 years https://t.co/ilfC5w1V8d
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Johnson says UK will 'never recognise Russia's annexation of Crimea or any other Ukrainian territory'
Boris Johnson has delivered a speech to the International Crimea Platform, a virtual conference organised by the Ukrainian government. Supporting Ukraine following the Russian invasion this year is one of his achievements as prime minister of which he is most proud, and No 10 said yesterday he would be focusing on Ukraine in his final fortnight in office. Here are the main points he made.
Johnson said the UK would “never recognise Russia’s annexation of Crimea or any other Ukrainian territory”. He said:
It has never been more important for all of us to stand together in defence of the foundational principle of international law, which is that, no territory, no country, can acquire territory or change borders by force of arms, and it so follows that we will never recognise Russia’s annexation of Crimea or any other Ukrainian territory.
He said Crimea had been turned into an “armed camp” following its annexation by Russia in 2014 and he said the same thing would happen to other parts of Ukraine under Russian control now. He said:
Ever since the annexation, the people of Crimea have endured a brutal and systematic campaign of human rights abuses by the Russian authorities, including the persecution of the Tatars, arbitrary arrests, with a tenfold increase in detentions in the last year, and the restriction of land ownership to Russian citizens.
Once he had grabbed Crimea, Putin deployed more and more Russian forces in the peninsula, turning the territory into an armed camp from which to threaten the rest of Ukraine, and Crimea duly became the launch pad for the invasion on 24th February. Or one of the launch pads. And I’m afraid that all this has even greater salience today because Putin is planning to do to parts of Ukraine, in fact all of Ukraine, what he has done to Crimea, and he is preparing more annexations and more sham referendums.
He said some people in the west did not realise the full significance of the annexation of Crimea. It was the precursor to this year’s full invasion, he said.
That land grab in 2014 was the direct precursor to today’s war, and we should have the humility to acknowledge that not everyone realised the sheer enormity of what was happening at the time.
All of our countries however reacted with strength and unity after Putin escalated his onslaught against Ukraine on the 24 February this year, but the first act of this tragedy opened eight years earlier – almost to the day - when Russian forces began fanning out across Crimea, and taking control of a peninsula seizing which constitutes 10,000 square miles of sovereign Ukrainian territory.
He said the UK should continue to give Ukraine “all the military, humanitarian, economic and diplomatic support that they need until Russia ends this hideous war and withdraws its forces from the entirety of Ukraine”.
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The Office for National Statistics published its regular monthly mortality figures for England and Wales this morning. They show excess deaths in England in July running at 10.2% (meaning 10.2% more people were dying than you would expect at this time of year).
In England, the number of deaths were
— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) August 23, 2022
▪️ 10.2% higher than the July five-year average (2016 to 2019, and 2021)
▪️ 11.8 % higher than the pre-pandemic five-year average (2015 to 2019).
The ONS says the high number of excess deaths was partly down to the heatwave. But it also says that other factors may be involved, and that “further investigation is required to understand this fully”.
John Burn-Murdoch, the statistics expert at the Financial Times, is already on the case. He has posted a long and excellent thread on Twitter looking at why England and Wales are recording excess deaths this summer and he argues that problems with emergency healthcare, and in particular long waits in A&E, may be contributing to 500 extra deaths per week.
His thread starts here.
NEW: the collapse of emergency healthcare in England may be costing 500 lives every week, a close match for non-Covid excess deaths
— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) August 23, 2022
Let’s look at how we reach that conclusion, by taking a deep-dive into non-Covid excess mortality and its possible causeshttps://t.co/VTsPbc2ajH pic.twitter.com/UoZfYbZgd1
And here is a chart from the thread showing the link between A&E waiting times and increased risk of death.
Patients who waited 8-12 hours had a 16% higher chance of dying in the subsequent 30 days than average.
— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) August 23, 2022
This was after adjusting for a huge range of possible confounders, i.e this was not due to those patients’ characteristics, conditions etc, but due to the length of the wait. pic.twitter.com/gYRIrBBVBx
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Truss would 'spook international investors' if she threatened independence of Bank of England, says Sunak
Rishi Sunak has suggested that Liz Truss would “spook” international investors if she threatened the independence of the Bank of England.
In an interview with Sky News, referrring to Truss’s plans to review the Bank’s mandate, the former chancellor said this might alarm investors. Asked what he would do to bring down inflation, he replied:
I think we need to let the Bank of England get on with its job with interest rates.
And I’m worried, quite frankly, by reports from others that they want to curb the independence of the Bank of England. I think that would be a mistake, and I think it would spook international investors into the United Kingdom and will be bad for all of us.
Truss and her supporters say that the Bank of England has not managed to keep inflation down and that its mandate should be reviewed because there has not been a proper reassessment since it was given its independence 25 years ago. Critics claim this means the independence of the Bank is under threat, but the Truss camp dispute this.
In the interview Sunak also rejected the suggestion that he should stand down to allow Truss, the clear favourite, to take over as prime minister now and start implementing an economic rescue plan. Asked if he would do that, Sunak said he had many campaign events organised and that he was “focused relentlessly” on persuading people that his plan was best for the country.
There has been at least one call from a newspaper columnist for Sunak to stand aside in favour of Truss. And yesterday an energy company boss said the Conservative party should bring forward the end date for the contest to allow the new PM to get to work more quickly. But that would be a decision for that party, not Sunak. At this point in the contest, no one seriously thinks he would, or should, just unilaterally withdraw.
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Sources in the Liz Truss camp have criticised Mel Stride for using the Commons Treasury committee, which he chairs, to launch an attack on Truss (see 10.58am), the Sun’s Harry Cole reports. Stride is backing Rishi Sunak.
💥 Truss campaign source: “It’s a shame that Rishi’s campaign chief is using taxpayer resources to launch a political attack on a fellow Conservative. Liz wants to cut taxes as soon as she can, something Rishi has no experience of.” https://t.co/CLpPUDQURq
— Harry Cole (@MrHarryCole) August 23, 2022
Mark Harper, the former Tory chief whip who is backing Rishi Sunak in the Tory leadership contest, has been tweeting about Paul Johnson’s description of Truss as more like Edward Heath than Margaret Thatcher. (See 8.52am.)
These difficult times require a Margaret Thatcher, not a Ted Heath.
— Mark Harper (@Mark_J_Harper) August 23, 2022
That’s why I’m backing @RishiSunak.
Rishi has the plan to tackle inflation & grip the challenges we face with honesty & determination.#Ready4Rishihttps://t.co/ojyVZq3zyG
Truss should let OBR to produce new forecast alongside emergency budget in September, Treasury committee says
The cross-party Commons Treasury committee has expressed concerns about reports that Liz Truss, the frontrunner in the Tory leadership contest, may hold an emergency budget in September without asking the Office for Budget Responsibility to update its fiscal and economic forecast.
The OBR usually publishes a new forecast alongside a budget, and it provides an independent assessment of what impact the budget measures will have. The system was put in place by George Osborne to discourage the Treasury from making dubious claims about what its tax and spending announcements might be able to achieve.
Mel Stride, the Conservative MP (and Rishi Sunak supporter) who chairs the committee, has written to the Treasury and the OBR asking for assurances that both organisations are doing what they can to ensure that the OBR can produce a new forecast in time for a possible budget on 14 or 21 September. Stride said:
OBR forecasts provide transparency and reassurance to the markets on the health of the nation’s finances. As a committee, we expect the Treasury to be supporting and enabling the OBR to publish an independent forecast at the time of any significant fiscal event, especially where, unlike other recent fiscal interventions, this might include significant permanent tax cuts.
Whether such an event is actually called a budget or not is immaterial. The reassurance of independent forecasting is vital in these economically turbulent times. To bring in significant tax cuts without a forecast would be ill advised. It is effectively ‘flying blind’.
Truss has not confirmed that she would stop the OBR producing a new forecast ahead of a September budget. Her allies have suggested there might not be time for the OBR to do the work, but OBR sources dispute this.
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Mel Stride, the Conservative MP who chairs the Commons Treasury committee and who is supporting Rishi Sunak for the Tory leadership, agrees with Paul Johnson’s assessment of Liz Truss’s tax plans. (See 8.52am.)
Says what you need to know. Let's avoid another Heath/Barber boom followed by more inflation, greater interest rate hikes and defeat at the next election. As Nigel Lawson has recognised only @RishiSunak has the plan to tame inflation and then responsibly cut taxes #Ready4Rishi https://t.co/SJEBih0He6
— Mel Stride (@MelJStride) August 23, 2022
Hundreds of doctors in Wales are now more likely to leave the Welsh NHS as a result of a “disappointing” pay deal announced last month, the British Medical Association has claimed. PA Media reports:
More than a third of the 1,397 doctors who responded to the BMA Cymru survey said they are angry over the Welsh government’s offer of a 4.5% wage increase.
Some 79% of them said the below inflation pay rise, which will apply to consultants, junior doctors and GPs, had further decreased morale.
Three times as many members responded to their survey compared with last year, which the BMA said shows the strength of feeling within the profession.
Over half of those – more than 700 doctors – said the latest pay decision meant they were more likely to leave the health service.
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National Grid extends annual gas shortage drill amid winter supply fears
The National Grid has doubled the length of its annual emergency gas shortage drill from two to four days as the energy industry braces for supplies to potentially run out over the winter, my colleague Jasper Jolly reports.
Customers face 'catastrophic winter' because of rising prices, says energy boss
Philippe Commaret, managing director of EDF, has become the latest energy company boss to warn that customers are facing a dire winter. Announcing an initiative by the firm to ensure customers know what they can do to reduce their bills, Commaret told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme:
We face, despite the support that the government has already announced, a dramatic and catastrophic winter for our customers.
In fact, in January half of the UK households might be in fuel poverty. That’s the reason why we want to take actions in order to do everything we can do in order to help our customers.
Commaret also said the government should consider a wide range of measures to keep bills down. He said:
I think that all ideas in order to keep the bills for customers flat are really important and have all to be considered. There is not only one lever to be pulled but all levers have to be pulled right now because we face a catastrophic winter.
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Daily arrivals in UK from small boats crossing Channel reached record high on Monday, figures show
A record 1,295 migrants arrived in the UK on Monday after crossing the Channel, PA Media reports. It is the highest daily total since current records began in 2018. PA says:
Some 27 boats made the journey, the provisional Ministry of Defence (MoD) data said, which suggests an average of around 48 people per boat.
The previous highest daily number was 1,185, on November 11 2021.
Babies and several other young children, including some wrapped in blankets and wearing woollen hats, were among those seen being brought ashore in Dover on Monday.
Life vests were pictured lying in piles on the Kent dockside after dinghies and other vessels were intercepted in the Channel.
The crossings came after a three-day hiatus between Friday and Sunday when no arrivals were recorded.
More than 22,600 people have arrived in the UK after navigating busy shipping lanes from France in small boats such as dinghies so far in 2022, according to the figures.
At the equivalent point in 2021, the cumulative total was just under 12,500.
Overall, 28,526 people made the crossing last year.
Yesterday the polling company Redfield and Wilton Strategies published a poll that suggests Labour has a 12-point lead over the Conservatives, its largest lead since Boris Johnson resigned.
Labour leads by 12%, largest lead since Boris Johnson's resignation.
— Redfield & Wilton Strategies (@RedfieldWilton) August 22, 2022
Westminster Voting Intention (21 August):
Labour 43% (+2)
Conservative 31% (-3)
Liberal Democrat 13% (+1)
Green 5% (–)
SNP 5% (+1)
Reform UK 3% (–)
Other 2% (-1)
Changes +/- 14 Augusthttps://t.co/Pt3WwEIMHQ pic.twitter.com/jDq52ETFns
The Redfield and Wilton polling suggests that, soon after Johnson resigned, Labour’s lead shrunk – perhaps because, with Johnson on his way out, one of the factors that made the Tories unpopular was no longer in play. But more recently the Labour lead has started to grow again. That might be a consequence of growing alarm about the energy bills crisis, and support for Labour’s plan for a price cap freeze (a rare example of a policy announcement that seems to have single-handedly generated a significant poll boost). And it may be the case that, the more people see of the Tory leadership contest, the less they like the party. Here is a UK poll of polls from Politico, showing how average polling results (based on figures from all major polling organisations) have fluctuated in recent weeks.
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Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, is to chair a special summit to discuss what can be done to mitigate the impact of soaring energy bills, PA Media reports. PA says:
With warnings that the average amount UK households pay for their gas and electricity could reach £6,000 next year, Sturgeon is bringing together representatives from both the power companies and consumer groups to consider what support can be provided.
Sturgeon has already warned many families will face “destitution and devastation” if energy prices increase again in October.
The energy price cap currently limits payments for domestic customers to a maximum of £1,971 a year. But regulators at Ofgem are due to announce the revised limit on Friday – when the cap is expected to rise to £3,576, with further increases then expected in 2023.
The Poverty Alliance director, Peter Kelly, welcomed the summit, which his organisation will be attending along with Energy Action Scotland.
Kelly said: “Across the country, people are increasingly being swept up amid a rising tide of hardship. But with the energy price cap due to increase in October, that tide threatens to become a flood. Households up and down Scotland are terrified of what the colder months will bring and the likelihood is that – without further action – lives and life chances will be at risk. The situation could scarcely be more urgent.”
Energy suppliers Scottish Power, Ovo Energy and E.ON are also due to take part in today’s summit, with Sturgeon having already insisted that the rise in the cap in October “can’t be allowed to go ahead”.
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Sharon Graham, the Unite general secretary, told Sky News that she would like the Labour party to be more “upfront” about supporting workers. In an interview with Sky News, mostly about the strike by dock workers at Felixstowe, she said:
I really stood on a mandate that I wanted unions to go back to what it says on the trade union tin – focus on jobs, pay and conditions – and that’s what I’ve been doing.
Of course I would like Labour to do more, of course I want them to do more to support workers in a more upfront way. But, quite frankly, what I’m focused on is the job at hand.
Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
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Truss’ tax plan is more like Heath’s than Thatcher’s, says IFS boss
Good morning. We will hear from Boris Johnson for the first time since he got back from his holiday in Greece later today when he gives a speech to the International Crimea Platform, a virtual conference organised by the Ukrainian government, at 12.30pm. Tomorrow marks the six-month anniversary of the (most recent) Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The Conservative leadership contest has not been going on for quite that long (although it may feel like it) and at 7pm tonight Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak will take part in the 10th official party hustings, in Birmingham. Truss remains the clear frontrunner, but her attempt to present herself to the party as the new Margaret Thatcher took a knock last night when Paul Johnson, head of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, the highly respected public spending thinktank, said her policies were more like those of Edward Heath. It is almost 50 years since Heath left office, but he remains a potent hate figure for many Tory rightwingers (which, given the current composition of the party, means many Tories).
Cutting taxes and growing deficit in face of high inflation has clear echoes of Ted Heath in 1973. Could not be further from Thatcher who famously took v unpopular decision to raise taxes in 1981 to manage deficit and inflation. https://t.co/6ULlSfygrE
— Paul Johnson (@PJTheEconomist) August 22, 2022
Johnson is not the first person to make this point about Truss’s policies. In an interview earlier this month, Michael Howard, the former party leader, revived the memory of the “Barber boom” as he explained why he thought Truss’s tax cuts would lead to higher inflation, more borrowing, recession and a Labour government (as Anthony Barber’s did under Heath).
Truss, of course, does not agree. Ahead of tonight’s hustings she has set out her plan for the West Midlands economy. Here is an extract from the press release.
Liz’s bold plan for the economy will tackle the Treasury orthodoxy and unleash the power of the private sector through lower taxes, better regulation and supply side reform. She will unshackle the private sector and get behind West Midlands firms, using their growth to turbocharge the UK economy.
Liz’s low tax, low regulation investment zones will empower local leaders to bring new investment into the areas that need it most. A Truss government will deliver key infrastructure projects including the Midlands rail hub and support Andy Street [the Conservative West Midlands mayor] to deliver the Wednesbury to Brierley Hill metro extension in full – and his efforts to obtain the necessary funds, including via the new devolution deal. She will also put the government’s full weight behind efforts to bring a battery gigafactory to the West Midlands, ensuring that the region continues to play a critical role at the forefront of our economic development.
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