A Nobel Prize-winning economist has warned Trump supporters who decided their vote based on his promise to improve the economy are in for a "really rude shock."
Concretely, Paul Krugman said that a burst of inflation caused discomfort among many Americans and led them to vote against President Joe Biden, but, ironically, Trump's economic platform is set to reignite price increases. He named his intention of passing a tax cut that will mostly benefit the wealthy and increasing tariffs on foreign products as the main examples.
"(Inflation) is in the rear view mirror now, but people are still annoyed at how much things cost. And yet, Trump's economic program, as far as we can tell, is the most inflationary program, probably, that any American president has ever tried to implement," Krugman said in a podcast published by The New York Times, where he also writes a column.
Krugman also pointed at Trump's plan to carry out the "largest deportation operation in U.S. history" as an inflationary factor, detailing that a smaller workforce will lead to price increases. "The food on your table is largely put there by immigrants, many of whom will end up being deported," he said.
"What's going to happen is that farm owners are going to have to pay much, much higher wages to get people to do those jobs, which the farmers will have to pass on in the form of higher prices."
Finally, Krugman predicted potential conflict between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve if the latter decides to raise interest rates to fight inflation. "I have very little reason to believe that Trump will acknowledge that his policies are actually producing inflation — much more likely that he'll start putting pressure on government statistical agencies to report better numbers. That is what autocratic regimes have done around the world in the past."
Economy was consistently listed as voters' top concerns during the campaign. Many voters, as well as the shift to the GOP from the Latino electorate could largely be explained by this.
For instance, in a September poll from NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC, 34% of Latinos ranked the cost of living as the most important issue, followed by jobs and the economy at 20%.
"Latinos were telling us that the direction of the country was horrible. The numbers were there," said Florida International University political scientist Eduardo Gamarra. "The approval for the president was also down in the dumps. The approval for Harris was higher, but there was still an overwhelming sense that the country was going in the wrong direction. And the economy was the No. 1 issue, by far."
Gamarra continued, by arguing that while the U.S. has one of the best economies in the world based on figures, "what we don't realize is that people don't consume those figures. People go to the supermarket. They go to the gas pump. They're trying to buy a home. And if any group has been affected by the economy, it has been Hispanics."
At the same time, Democrats failed to give Latinos a clear economic message while Trump focused on it in all of his rallies and commercials, University of Houston political science professor Jeronimo Cortina tells Axios.
"Latinos were saying, 'I don't care what Trump says. I want to be able to pay the bills. I want to be able to send my kid to college. I want to pay the mortgage, to afford a new car,'" Cortina said.
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