Donald Trump heard people pan his speech when he announced his third presidential run back in November. Key political figures in all-important Iowa won’t return his calls. Now, he’s heading to find some of the old magic in New Hampshire and South Carolina.
Not all Republicans in those pivotal early primary states are rushing in for an embrace.
GOP strategists say the former president maintains support among the hard-core backers that gave him primary wins in New Hampshire and South Carolina in 2016, but there are signs voters may prefer alternatives such as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is widely expected to enter the race.
“He remains a dominant figure, but not in possession of the Republican Party anymore,” said Tom Rath, the former New Hampshire attorney general who has advised multiple presidential campaigns. “He’s coming to a very different New Hampshire political environment than what he was used to before.”
Trump is scheduled to speak at the New Hampshire Republican Party’s annual meeting in Salem on Saturday before heading to Columbia, South Carolina, for an event with U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham and other officials to roll out his campaign team in the state.
Trump won a crowded New Hampshire primary in 2016 with about 35% of the vote and the South Carolina GOP race with 33%.
A University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll released Thursday showed DeSantis leading Trump 42% to 30% among likely primary voters. A survey of likely GOP voters by the South Carolina Policy Council found that only 37% think the party should nominate Trump in 2024. In a head-to-head matchup, DeSantis out-polled Trump 52% to 33%.
Still, former New Hampshire GOP Chairman Fergus Cullen says the devotion of Trump’s staunch supporters shouldn’t be underestimated. In a crowded field, Trump may need only a third of the vote to win the New Hampshire primary again.
“His supporters are open to dating somebody else, but it’s not like they’re really looking to dump him,” said Cullen.
Resistance to Trump
Trump has the backing of about a third of South Carolina GOP voters, estimates Katon Dawson, a former state GOP chairman. That might be enough to win a crowded primary but there is room for another candidate to peel away support, he cautioned.
Dawson is backing Nikki Haley if she runs. Haley would be a formidable candidate in South Carolina as a popular former governor, who also served as United Nations ambassador under Trump. She said in 2021 she wouldn’t run if Trump did but has since said she’s seriously considering a 2024 bid.
“There is this feeling that at this point, Donald Trump is not simply going to announce and have the nomination without any resistance,” said Robert Oldendick, emeritus professor of political science at the University of South Carolina in Columbia.
Other Republicans considering 2024 bids include former Vice President Mike Pence; former Secretary of State Michael Pompeo, who released a book this week; former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, who attended this week’s Republican National Committee meeting in California; and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, who a spokesman said won’t attend Trump’s event because of a previously scheduled engagement.
Trump launched his third White House bid Nov. 15 expecting he would be capitalizing on a Republican “red wave” in the midterm elections. But instead, he was widely blamed for the GOP’s disappointing results when his hand-picked candidates lost key races. He didn’t follow his announcement with any major campaign events outside Florida.
In a Jan. 19 post on Truth Social, Trump acknowledged his campaign is viewed as lackluster but said the election is still “a long time away” and promised “MANY GIANT RALLIES and other events coming up soon.”
Trump has been releasing policy videos on immigration and other issues, including one calling for new restrictions on Chinese ownership of U.S. infrastructure, farmland and other assets.
Carl Broggi, the senior pastor at Community Bible Church in Beaufort, South Carolina, said Trump’s support among evangelical voters in the state remains strong after he got three new Supreme Court justices on the bench and recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.
But Broggi said Trump hasn’t been as firm as DeSantis on sexual orientation and gender-identity issues and had hurt his standing when he said in an interview that some evangelical leaders were disloyal for not immediately backing him.
Trump also blamed the midterm results in part on anti-abortion activists who “could have fought much harder during the election” for Republicans.
“I think honestly if DeSantis ran, he could potentially remove Trump from the first-place spot,” Broggi said.
