Trump tariff news, earnings and economics are filling today's market with volatility, longtime stock market trend watcher Jeffrey Hirsch says. But be sure not to confuse that with disastrous market turmoil.
"Check your emotions at the door," Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader's Almanac, told Investor's Business Daily's "Investing with IBD" podcast. "I know there's a lot of volatility, but you have to be a little calm and patient."
Hirsch says that while the market's current focus on economic reports, earnings and external events like President Donald Trump's trade and ongoing tariff announcements all help create uncertainty, it masks periods of overall steady growth in the markets. He points to the Fed's December decision to lower rates by a modest and widely predicted 25 basis points, seeing this as a reset of the market's expectations.
Audio Version of Podcast
Trump Trade
Volatility is creating dramatic moves to the downside, but the market's attempted rebounds — rather than outright breakdowns — are pointing to overall positivity when investors take a step back and look at the big picture.
That market resilience is visible in major indices, with the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq all remaining in multiyear uptrends and near all-time highs despite Trump's trade announcements to enact tariffs on countries like China, Mexico and Canada.
Meanwhile in individual sectors, tech names like Google parent Alphabet sold off when Chinese-made generative AI competitor DeepSeek's latest model was announced several weeks ago, but quickly rebounded as investors considered how innovation could spur healthy competition in the generative AI field.
"We can get innovation out of, guess what, bootstrapped, low-budget innovators," said Hirsch. He points to how now-dominant tech players were once upstarts with shoestring budgets and humble beginnings like Dell, HP and Microsoft.
Google stock is down this week after earnings sparked capital expenditure concerns as the company builds out a foothold in generative AI technologies. The stock is set to close below the key 50-day line for the first time since breaking out of a cup-with-handle chart pattern in December. Closing below the 50 is a sell signal for active traders.
Tuning Out And Trading On
Hirsch says the main takeaway for investors is to tune out the noise. Earnings, economics and Trump trade volatility can create the potential for investors to profit with careful picks and risk management, but should not be confused with a bearish trading landscape.
Hirsch says the market will likely vacillate between a heavy emphasis on economic data and externalities like Trump trade policies, to largely ignoring the data and focusing on one or two key points. For now, he sees the market as unusually sensitive. "Everyone's keying in on way too much," Hirsch said, pointing to reactions to tariff threats from President Trump.
"Unless you're day trading and really hitting these things and you're good at it, then you really need to just stick to your guns," Hirsch said.
Follow Mike Juang on X at @mikejuangnews and on Threads at @namedvillage.
