Democrats and anti-Trump Republicans got a little bit of good news over the weekend with some highly respected polls coming in showing that Kamala Harris is continuing to grow a lead over Donald Trump.
According to the NBC poll, Harris leads by five points nationally and has received a mind-boggling 16-point bump in favorability since July. NBC reports that it's “the largest increase for any politician in NBC News polling since then-President George W. Bush's standing surged after the 9/11 terrorist attacks." It appears that the more people see her, the more they like her. The CBS News Poll found Harris up 52-48 percent nationally and 51-49 percent in the battlegrounds. Importantly, the poll found that views of the economy have improved a bit and her numbers on that issue have improved with them. Those who are voting on personal qualities favor Harris 66-33% and those who are voting on "policy" are 50% for her and 50% for Trump.
Pollster G. Elliot Morris of 538, concluded that "Harris modestly leads this race but a normal amount of polling bias could see Trump win."
Harris up 3 nationally per our 538 average; 2.7 in Michigan, 1.9 in Wisconsin and 1.5 in Pennsylvania. Plus GA, AZ, NC and NV all within a point. Harris modestly leads this race but a normal amount of polling bias could see Trump win (or Harris 350 EVs)https://t.co/cdR35ysBkE
— G Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris) September 23, 2024
That throws some cold water on any euphoria Harris supporters might feel. The race remains very close and it's hard to understand how that can be after everything that's happened over the past nine years of Trump dominating our politics. In fact, it's downright disorienting.
The good news is that he has, for the first time, said that he won't run again. Of course, he's not exactly a man of his word so I wouldn't take that to the bank. If he loses this time and disputes the results and continues to run a shadow government from Mar-a-Lago I'd say the chances are pretty good that even at the age of 82 he'll be primed for another comeback, especially if the GOP is still drowning in weirdo extremism.
Despite the Trump campaign insisting that their own polls are showing that he's far ahead in the battlegrounds, Trump's behavior indicates that he knows he's not running away with it. And he's very disappointed about that since he had probably already told Melania she could make plans to follow up her hideous destruction of the White House rose garden with plans to dig up the rest of the grounds and turn them into a putting green and Christmas tree sculpture garden. He thought it was a foregone conclusion and he didn't expect that he would have to actually do anything. And so far, he has not been able to rev himself up to campaign very much.
Axios reported on his low energy rally schedule compared to the past:
Trump holding far fewer rallies than in past runs https://t.co/CBU1kj8GMT
— Axios (@axios) September 22, 2024
He was even doing more rallies in 2020 during the pandemic. And, as Harris pointed out in the debate (much to Trump's chagrin) they just aren't the raucous, fun events they used to be. Harris described how people are leaving early, "bored and exhausted." That is absolutely true. Trump held a rally this past weekend in North Carolina that once again had people streaming out while he was still speaking. The MAGA magic isn't what it used to be. And Trump isn't the candidate he used to be.
The Washington Post reported on the state of the Trump campaign as we head into the final stretch and it's looking pretty frayed around the edges. Not only is Harris outraising and outspending them, the Trump campaign is experiencing serious internal problems. What was considered to be the most disciplined, professional campaign Trump has ever run has devolved into yet another edition of the Trump show. The Post runs down some of the events of just the past two weeks, pointing out that Trump's "chaotic and widely criticized debate performance" didn't happen in a vacuum. He had already brought back the troublesome Corey Lewandowski into the fold, who had immediately challenged the authority of the campaign leadership and Trump was traveling around the country with far right conspiracy theorist Laura Loomer. That's not all:
Trump picked a fight with the international icon, posting last Sunday on social media, “I HATE TAYLOR SWIFT!” — the sort of impulsive, impetuous display that has become increasingly common in recent weeks. In a single 24-hour span at the end of last month, for example, he amplified a crude joke about Harris performing a sex act; falsely accused her of staging a coup against President Joe Biden; promoted tributes to the QAnon conspiracy theory; hawked digital trading cards; and became embroiled in a public feud with staff and officials at Arlington National Cemetery.
One Trump insider told the Post, "The through-line is his campaign is 96 percent him. It’s not even ‘Let Trump be Trump. It’s ‘Let Trump be unsupervised at all times.’ They just feel like, ‘We can’t control him, so let’s hope he wins anyways.’”
Imagine what he'll be like when he's back in the White House, knowing that he has immunity from virtually any criminal accountability and will not need to seek the approval of the voters ever again. I can't imagine that Donald Trump will spend much time worrying about his "legacy." He believes that he will be remembered as the greatest president in American history and probably the greatest leader in world history. And if others disagree he will spend the rest of his life saying it on a loop, sure that if he just says it enough people will agree it's true.
According to the New York Times, Trump's antics have the rest of the party worried.
He agitated for a government shutdown under the ignorant assumption that because he was blamed for one when he was president, President Biden and Harris would be blamed this time. House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., apparently defied Trump last week and agreed to a deal with Democrats to avert a shutdown without the voter identification provision Trump demanded. No word from Trump yet, but his protege Laura Loomer had angry words for Johnson.)
Now Trump's incoherence on the stump is threatening to bring down the rest of the Republican slate, the Times reports:
Some Republicans worry that the collective impact could alienate more moderate Republicans, whose support could prove to be decisive in such a tight contest, as Mr. Trump perhaps reminds those voters why they denied him a second term.
As Harris said in the debate, he's having a very difficult time processing that he should have been disqualified from the presidency and would have if the party had been willing to take responsibility and convict him in the second impeachment trial.
People often comment on social media about Democrats being nervous nellies about the election, never able to feel confident while the Republicans just march on regardless of how daunting the electoral challenge is. But Democrats know that despite Harris's slight lead and the fact that her campaign is operating smoothly while the Trump campaign is a chaotic mess, Donald Trump could win this campaign.
And that's the problem. Considering all we know and everything that's happened, how in the world is it even possible that it's this close? Even if Harris wins and Trump finally shuffles off into obscurity, that's the question that will haunt us as a country for many years to come.
