The S&P 500 fell 6.4% in the first 50 days of President Donald Trump's new term, the worst since Barack Obama's first 50 days in 2009. More bad news: Historically, the stock market tends to follow the first 50 days' performance through the end of the year.
Since 1953, whatever direction the S&P 500 moved in the first 50 days of a presidential term, the index followed it from Inauguration Day to year-end 14 out of 16 times, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
While that's a sobering trend, remember that different circumstances affect each presidential term. For example, in 1981 Ronald Reagan faced a recession that began in July of that year. The S&P 500 fell 2.9% in the first 50 days of Reagan's first term and 8.8% through the end of the year.
The benchmark index lost 4.2% in the first 50 days of Richard Nixon's second term. It ended the year down 18% as the nation wrestled with an oil crisis.
This year, uncertainty over trade tariffs has rattled the stock market. Through Friday's close, the S&P 500 was down 4.1% year to date while the Nasdaq was off 8.1%. Both indexes have fallen more than 10% from prior highs — what Wall Street typically considers to be a market correction.
Tariff-sensitive industries such as apparel, alcoholic beverages, electronics and autos (despite a reprieve for some) are among what are so far the worst-performing industry groups of 2025.
S&P 500 Performance And Market Leadership
But also keep in mind that even if the stock market has a down year, there can be tradable rallies within that decline. (Investors can track market conditions and recommended exposure levels in The Big Picture.) Several sectors have emerged as success stories amid the Trump slump, or held up in spite of it. Those include metals, China stocks, insurance providers and some other financials.
But wait — aren't Chinese stocks in the crosshairs of U.S. tariffs? Yes, but domestic stimulus hopes in China have offset tariff worries, at least so far. The surprising success of artificial intelligence technology in China is also driving new investment.
The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index is up more than 20% so far this year while the Shanghai Composite is up 2.2%. The iShares MSCI China ETF broke out of a cup-with-handle base last week and is above the 56.46 buy point. Krane CSI China Internet and iShares China Large Cap ETF also have broken out.
Gold prices topped $3,000 per ounce for the first time last week, as investors sought out the precious metal for protection amid geopolitical worries and expectations about monetary policy. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF is up abo0ut 14% this year and trading at record highs. Gold Fields and Agnico-Eagle Mines topped buy points within the past few weeks. Kinross Gold topped a trendline entry around 11.50.
Silver assets, which tend to shadow gold, also are performing well. IShares Silver Trust is above the 30.27 buy point of a handle. IBD's Mining sector is up more than 20% so far this year. The Metals sector is up more than 4%.
S&P 500 Performance: Insurers Hold Up
Insurance is the fourth-best IBD sector of 2025, up more than 7%. The insurance brokers industry group is doing particularly well, despite last week's 2.2% drop. Ryan Specialty and Brown & Brown are two leaders to watch.
While the Los Angeles wildfires and severe weather have hit insurers, property and casualty coverage providers had a strong 2024. Many insurers are gaining market share and/or winning rate increases from regulators that translate to the bottom line.
The various outlooks for insurance brokers "remain upbeat for 2025 with mid- to high-single-digit organic growth and margins expansion expected," UBS analysts wrote in a report on fourth-quarter industry performance. Higher wages and overhead expenses could become a headwind, analysts warned.
Other sectors that are outperforming:
- The Alcohol/Tobacco sector is up more than 13% for the year, but it's tobacco stocks that are carrying the load. The tobacco group is No. 14 out of 197 industries, up nearly 12% as it fulfills its traditional role as a defensive play. The alcoholic beverage group is near the bottom of IBD's industry rankings, down almost 15% for the year.
- The Aerospace sector is up more than 4% on expectations of higher defense spending in Europe. Germany-based Rheinmetall has shot up 135% this year. U.K.-based BAE Systems has rallied 50% to record highs. Airbus climbed to a record high Monday.
- The Utility sector (up nearly 3%) is another defensive play. The gas distribution industry group has rallied nearly 10% in 2025, while water utilities and diversified utilities are up about 6% and electric power providers have climbed some 3%.
- Agriculture, another defensive area, is up about 2%. Yet, only the farm machinery stocks are up (8.6%), while agricultural operations are down about 11% and fertilizers down 1%.
