The Trump administration’s abrupt decision to immediately pause all US foreign aid programmes could exacerbate violence in Latin America, driving more migration from a region already struggling with the rise of organised crime, experts have warned.
The world’s largest aid provider by far, the US disbursed $1.5bn to South American countries in the 2023 financial year, funding a broad range of projects, including humanitarian, military, environmental and economic aid.
But programmes around the world have been frozen since the US president suspended almost all US foreign aid for at least 90 days to review whether they are “aligned” with the interests of his new administration.
At least three humanitarian organisations have suspended support operations for more than 41,000 people displaced by a recent outbreak of guerrilla violence in Colombia. Another programme aimed at finding jobs to integrate hundreds of thousands of Venezuelan migrants into Colombian society was also paralysed.
In Brazil, two organisations working to assist Venezuelans fleeing Nicolás Maduro’s dictatorship shut down their operations and a programme aimed at tackling the commercial sexual exploitation of children was ordered to stop.
On Tuesday, the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, issued a new waiver for “life-saving humanitarian assistance”, which he defined as “core life-saving medicine, medical services, food, shelter, and subsistence assistance, as well as supplies and reasonable administrative costs as necessary to deliver such assistance”.
It is still unclear how the new waiver will affect organisations working with migrants, as not all humanitarian assistance has been cleared.
Rubio’s memo specified that it does not apply to “activities that involve abortions, family planning conferences ... gender or DEl ideology programs, transgender surgeries, or other non-life-saving assistance” and that migration and refugee assistance may only be used “for repatriation of third-country nationals to their country of origin or safe-third-country”.
Across the region, organisations have spent the last few days in anxious uncertainty over what comes next. While some have diversified funding sources, the US government is the primary or even the sole funder for many. Most of the approximately 50 organisations contacted by the Guardian declined to comment, and those who responded issued cautious statements that revealed little.
Marcia Wong, former deputy assistant administrator at the US Agency for International Development (USAid) bureau for humanitarian assistance, said the suspension added a degree of stress and instability to already fragile regions such as Latin America. “Organized gang violence has been a tragic burden for the region, as well as non-state armed groups. Without assistance, vacuums can develop – allowing exploitation and violence,” she said.
Although she does not believe a “one-to-one correlation” can be drawn between the immediate suspension and a rise in violence, she acknowledges that “you would remove one element that is trying to better the living environment”.
Among the international aid sector, there is a belief that the suspension is unlikely to last only 90 days. “I think this will continue for months because there’s no way they’ll be able to review all the programmes in that period,” said Susan Reichle, a former senior foreign service officer at USAid.
A USAid staffer for 26 years who worked across five administrations, Reichle believes the unprecedented decision to halt most of the US foreign aid is actually “hurting” US national security. “When we suddenly break cooperative agreements, contracts, programs with other countries … it makes us less safe and pushes them into China’s hands,” she said.
Reichle also believes that halting programmes aimed at assisting migrants could have the opposite effect Trump intended on migration.
“There is a program for Venezuelan refugees where they get job training through the private sector and receive support to stay in Colombia. Right now, that program is halted,” she said.
“So these migrants have a choice. Do you think they’re going to go back to Venezuela? No. Are they going to try to migrate north? Maybe.
“So we’re actually increasing the probability that migration will continue and even strengthen because these programmes in South America are ending,” she said.
In Peru, the Scalabrini International Migration Network’s two migrant shelters received notice from the UN’s International Organization for Migration (IOM) – whose main funder is the US and has already suspended its activities in countries such as Colombia and Brazil – that its $50,000 donation for this year had been suspended.
The shelters in the capital, Lima, and Tacna, on the border with Chile, take in about 2,000 migrants a year, primarily Venezuelans, but also Ecuadorians and Colombians fleeing internal violence.
Humanitarian assistance accounts for the largest portion of US funds allocated to South America, at 37.9% in 2023. Peace and security projects – including $164.1m of military aid to Ecuador and $153.8m to Colombia – account for 23.1%.
Economic development programs received 12.5% of the total disbursements; democracy, human rights and governance, 7%; health, 3.8%; education and social services, 2.1%; and environment, only 0.4%.
A $50m donation announced in November by Joe Biden for the Amazon Fund is now uncertain, as the contract – in reality, for $46.52m – was signed, but the money was not transferred in time before Trump took office.
