Newt Gingrich recently expressed concerns about President Biden's declining support among Black voters, suggesting that Trump could potentially secure historic levels of support from this demographic. Gingrich highlighted various issues that he believes are contributing to Biden's waning popularity among Black Americans, including rising grocery prices, illegal immigration concerns, and perceived failures in education and city governance.
Gingrich predicted that Trump may receive higher Black voter turnout than any Republican candidate since Eisenhower, citing a significant shift in support away from Biden. Recent polling data indicates a notable decrease in Black voter interest in Biden, with his support dropping from 86% in 2020 to 70% in 2024. In contrast, Trump has tripled his support among Black voters, rising from 7% in 2020 to 21% in 2024.
The polling results have left analysts surprised, with one remarking on the unprecedented nature of Trump's gains among Black voters. The data suggests a potential electoral advantage for Trump, with projections indicating that his increased Black voter support could secure him 291 Electoral College votes in 2024.
Specific state polls further underscore Biden's diminishing support among Black voters. In Michigan, Trump's Black voter support has risen to 15%, a significant increase from the 9% he received in the 2020 election. Similarly, in Pennsylvania, Trump's Black voter support has increased to 11%, up three points from 2020.
While Biden still maintains majority support among Black voters in these states, his overall numbers have declined. In Michigan, Biden's support among Black voters has dropped to 54%, down from 79% before the 2020 election. In Pennsylvania, Biden's Black voter support stands at 56%, reflecting a decrease from his previous levels of support.
Overall, the polling data suggests a shifting landscape in Black voter preferences, with Trump making significant inroads among this demographic. The potential implications of these trends on the upcoming election remain a topic of intense scrutiny and analysis.
