President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to impose massive tariffs on goods imported from Canada and Mexico in an effort to get them to crack down on illegal immigration and drug smuggling. But how many actually cross the U.S.—Canada border illegally?
In the Swanton Sector, which stretches across eastern New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire, the number of illegal crossings has shot up, from around 7,000 arrests during fiscal year 2023 to around 19,000 during fiscal year 2024 — about the same as the total number for the last 17 years combined, WBZ noted.
Similarly, across the whole of the northern border, agents recorded nearly 199,000 encounters in fiscal year 2024, compared to around 110,000 two years previously.
But these are small figures compared to the southern border where the number of illegal crossings can be measured in the millions.
In March, the Border Patrol Agent in Charge of the Beecher Falls Station in Vermont told WBZ, “It was a flood we had not seen before. It was an exponential shift.”
The border between the U.S. and Mexico was a top issue during the 2024 election campaign, as Trump bashed the Biden administration’s record on immigration. However, the northern border received little attention even as the number of crossings skyrocketed. Customs and Border Protection has said that the number of encounters has gone down by 52 percent since the top numbers in June.
Trump said in a Truth Social post on Monday: “On January 20th, as one of my many first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States, and its ridiculous Open Borders.”
He added: “This Tariff will remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!”
Human smuggling remains a major problem, with Lavallee telling WBZ in October, “We have multiple identified transnational criminal organizations that are transporting people away from the border.”
More terror suspects are encountered at the northern border compared to the south, but most are found at ports of entry. As many as 358 suspects on the terror watchlist were detained at ports of entry on the U.S.—Canada border during the 2024 fiscal year, compared to 155 suspects on the southern border.
Border Patrol told WBZ that most of those they encountered in the spring came from Mexico, with the agency believing that Mexicans, who did not need a visa to enter Canada, flew to the U.S. northern neighbor before crossing into the U.S. illegally. Canada has since changed the policy, and fewer people from Mexico are now encountered crossing the border.
More people are now crossing from East Asia and India, according to Border Patrol.
Michael Barutciski, a professor of international affairs at Toronto’s York University, told WBZ that “Indian nationals do require a visa to enter Canada but there was apparently a decision by the government to not be as strict in processing the visa applications. For example, no longer asking for proof that the visitor will be returning to their country.”
“It’s actually quite striking that Canada’s immigration minister has admitted that the security screening overseas is unreliable,” he added.
The government has since adopted new policies such as limits on temporary foreign workers and international students and a complete stop on allowing people to apply for work permits inside Canada.
“Many will end up considering illegal options. Either they’re staying undocumented in Canada or they’re crossing the border illegally into the U.S.,” Barutciski noted.
Trump border czar Tom Homan has spoken out about illegal immigration from the northern border and has shared plans on how to restrict the flow of unlawful migrants.
Canada is preparing for a rise in the number of immigrants coming to the country if the second Trump administration imposes its strict new restrictions and aggressive mass deportation policies.
Homan called the northern border an “extreme national security vulnerability,” when speaking to a local New York TV station earlier in November.
The northern neighbor “can’t be a gateway to terrorists coming to the United States,” Homan added.
