After a relatively quiet July, the midterms came roaring back Tuesday, with primaries across five states that commanded national attention.
Former President Donald Trump, yet again, made himself a central character by weighing in on the day’s most hard-fought contests. His endorsements have been viewed as a barometer of his continued sway over the GOP base, and few carry higher stakes than his picks for governor in Arizona and Michigan — two battleground states where his lies about election fraud in 2020 persist. And his endorsement in the Missouri Senate race broke new ground in creativity, even if it fell short on clarity.
His quest for intraparty payback also continued apace in Michigan and Washington state, as he backed challengers to three House Republicans who voted for his impeachment in January 2021.
While Trump’s influence has been a subplot throughout the entire primary season, an election in Kansas offered insight into a new dynamic: the politics of abortion after the end of Roe v. Wade. A referendum on the ballot will determine whether the right to abortion was protected in the state’s constitution, offering the first gauge of how voters are reacting to the Supreme Court’s decision in June overturning federal protection for abortion.
Here are the key things to watch:
—A MESSY PRIMARY IN MICHIGAN
Republican Tudor Dixon will face off against Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer after surviving Michigan’s chaotic gubernatorial primary. Dixon, a conservative former political commentator, beat out four other Republicans including Ryan Kelley — who was arrested by the FBI in June on charges related to his presence at the U.S. Capitol during the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection.
Give other GOP candidates, including two front-runners, were disqualified in May over fake signatures used to qualify for the ballot.
Despite Trump’s last-minute backing, Dixon has already faced criticism from his allies. She has been called the establishment pick because she’s backed by former Education Secretary Betsy DeVos, who earned the ire of Trump world when she quit his administration after the Capitol attack.
—CONGRATULATIONS TO ‘ERIC’
The race to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Roy Blunt of Missouri was long on candidates — 21 contenders are on the ballot — and on drama. Most of the controversy surrounded former Missouri Gov. Eric Greitens, who resigned in 2018 amid accusations of sexual assault and blackmail, which are typically not great for one’s political prospects. Nor are domestic abuse allegations, which Greitens’ ex-wife made amid their ongoing custody battle.
Nevertheless, Greitens, who ran an ad depicting himself pretending to hunt moderate Republicans, looked well-positioned in the race thanks to his high name identification. A group of Republicans who worried Greitens may put a solidly red seat within reach for Democrats hammered him with a barrage of negative TV ads. That propelled state Attorney Gen. Eric Schmitt to the top of the polling heap; also in contention is Rep. Vicky Hartzler, who is endorsed by Sen. Josh Hawley.
Trump kept his preference mum until the day before the primary, when he announced that “ERIC” was his pick. Which Eric? That remains unclear. Both Greitens and Schmitt claimed the endorsement for themselves. By appearing to back them both, Trump ended up simultaneously winning and losing this race at the same time.
The unambiguous winner overall was Schmitt, who nabbed the Republican nomination on Tuesday.
—THE NEVER-ENDING 2020 ELECTION IN ARIZONA
Trump has not gotten over his narrow loss in Arizona nearly two years ago, and neither have his chosen candidates in state’s top races. Tuesday’s primary will reveal whether Arizona Republican voters feel the same — or if they’re ready to move on.
Trump’s favored contenders — former news anchor Kari Lake for governor, venture capitalist Blake Masters for U.S. Senate and state legislator and election denier Mark Finchem for secretary of state — have all embraced the false rallying cry that Trump actually won in the battleground state.
Their Republican opponents, for the most part, have not vocally rejected those conspiracy theories.
Karrin Taylor Robson, whose gubernatorial run has been endorsed by former Vice President Mike Pence and Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey, refused to say whether she accepted the 2020 election results.
Jim Lamon, a solar company executive and Masters’ top competition in the Senate race, said he would not have certified the election and gave financial backing to the haphazard partisan review of votes in Maricopa County. Another Senate contender, Attorney General Mark Brnovich, heeded calls to open fraud investigations but still was deemed insufficiently committed to the cause by Trump. On Monday, Brnovich released the results of his investigation into allegations of votes cast in the name of a dead person; instead of the alleged 282 dead voters, he found one.
—ABORTION POLITICS AFTER ROE
In 2019, the Kansas Supreme Court ruled that the state Constitution protects the right to have an abortion. On Tuesday, voters will decide whether or not to pass a constitutional amendment drafted by abortion opponents to overturn the ruling.
If passed, the amendment would allow Republicans, who hold supermajorities in both chambers of the Legislature, to pass bills restricting abortion access in the state. Those could potentially override a veto from Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly, who is up for reelection this year. That wouldn’t just affect Kansans — hundreds of Missouri, Texas and Oklahoma residents travel to the state each year to end pregnancies.
A day before the primary, some voters received a misleading text — seemingly from supporters of abortion access — claiming that a “yes” vote on the amendment would preserve the right to abortion in the state. A “yes” vote would, in fact, remove the state Constitution’s abortion protections. The text was written by a political action committee led by conservative former Kansas Rep. Tim Huelskamp and sent out by a GOP-aligned firm, The Washington Post reported Tuesday.
—IMPEACHMENT IRE
When 10 Republicans voted to impeach Trump after the Jan. 6 incursion on the U.S. Capitol, they knew it would be a fateful vote for their careers. Since then, four decided to retire rather than seek reelection. One, Rep. David Valadao of California, narrowly survived his primary. Rep. Tom Rice of South Carolina decisively lost his. Now the fate of three more will be determined on Tuesday. Unsurprisingly, Trump has backed challengers for all three.
In Michigan, Rep. Peter Meijer, the only freshman to vote for impeachment, is facing John Gibbs, who served in the Trump administration and does not believe the 2020 election was legitimate. The Democrats’ congressional campaign arm, sensing Gibbs would be more beatable in November, has run ads highlighting his loyalties to Trump and saying he is too conservative for the district — which, in a Republican primary, amounts to a de facto campaign contribution.
If Reps. Jaime Herrera Beutler and Dan Newhouse advance on Tuesday, it will likely be because their home state, Washington, does not have partisan primaries. Instead, the top two vote-getters advance to the general election.
Beutler faces multiple well-funded challengers, including Trump’s pick, Joe Kent, a former Green Beret who has connections to right-wing extremist groups such as the Proud Boys. Newhouse is squaring off against Loren Culp, who ran for governor in 2020 and blamed his loss, without evidence, on fraud. Culp, whom Trump endorsed, claimed election tampering in Tuesday’s race days before the polls closed, pointing to a local newspaper’s website that appeared to show a vote tally. The paper’s editor clarified that Culp was looking at a test page, not actual voting results.
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(Mason reported from Los Angeles, John from Grand Rapids, Mich.)
