If his first term in the White House is any indication, President-elect Donald Trump is likely to keep the Middle East high on his agenda. During his first four years, Trump made history by selecting Saudi Arabia for his first foreign trip, attempted to broker a “deal of the century” between Israelis and Palestinians, strengthened the Jewish state’s regional integration, and significantly intensified pressure on Iran. But the Middle East has changed significantly since he left office in 2021, and all regional actors are keenly watching how the new president will navigate these shifts.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu welcomed the president-elect’s victory, emphasizing a strong alliance between Israel and America. Gulf Arab states also congratulated Trump, highlighting their enduring partnership with the US.
Analysts predict that ending the wars in Gaza and Lebanon and integrating Israel in the Middle East will be top priorities for the president-elect. There are concerns that Trump may allow Israel to annex parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank, potentially impacting the two-state solution.
Trump’s policies towards the Israel-Hamas conflict remain unclear, with speculations on his approach post-inauguration. Throughout his first term, Trump favored Israel, recognizing Jerusalem as its capital and its sovereignty over the Golan Heights.
Iran faces a challenging period under Trump’s scrutiny, with a potential revival of the “maximum pressure” campaign. Experts suggest that Iran’s regional influence may be further constrained, leading to internal discontent and economic turmoil.
Trump’s election could empower Netanyahu to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, escalating tensions in the region. However, the Biden administration may intervene to prevent such actions, emphasizing repercussions for Israel.
Gulf Arab states anticipate Trump’s return, as relations flourished during his first term. Saudi Arabia and the UAE engaged in conflicts in Yemen, with strained ties with Iran. Trump’s likeminded leadership style resonated well with Gulf states, fostering strong bilateral relations.
