Donald Trump is handling the narcissistic injury of trailing a Black woman in the polls about as well as could be expected, which is to say: The former president is variously denying and lashing out at reality itself, lamenting that he’s no longer running against another elderly man and complaining in all-hours rage posts that his opponent's throngs of enthusiastic supporters are fake and actually generated by computers.
“Everything about Kamala is fake,” the three-time Republican candidate for president posted on Truth Social over the weekend. Tormented by the images of boisterous crowds at Vice President Kamala Harris’ full-capacity events from Pennsylvania to Nevada, including thousands greeting her and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz at the Detroit airport on Aug. 7, Trump opted for a decisive break from the world that the rest of us are living in.
That rally on the tarmac in Michigan? Fake as the news industry. “There was nobody at the plane, and she ‘A.I.’d it,” the 78-year-old posted Sunday from his home-resort in south Florida, where he has largely been stewing while his rivals jet around the country. Photos (and videos, by the way) “showed a massive ‘crowd’ of so-called followers,” Trump wrote, “BUT THEY DIDN’T EXIST!”
If another elderly man running for president was outright denying the existence of his opponents’ supporters and claiming we live in “The Matrix,” there would likely be an ensuing conversation about mental health and that man’s fitness for office, elected members of their party forced to reckon with the truth about the visible decline at the top of their ticket; with Trump, it risks being just another data point lost in a torrent of bizarre but soon forgotten conspiracy theories.
For this reporter, any doubt that the enthusiasm seen online also existed in real life was removed by the Harris-Walz kick off event last week in Philadelphia. Earlier Biden rallies had the feeling of supporters going through the motions, supporting his pro-labor policies, perhaps, but none too enthused about fielding an 81-year-old for president. For Harris and her running mate, by contrast, upwards of 10,000 people braved rain and some grotesque humidity to dance and chant “not going back,” Democrats’ post-debate depression giving way to a frenzied hope that the future could in fact be better than the past.
Trump’s denial of this reality, if sincere, could well cost him. Even if were capable of a late-stage pivot, he seems incapable of even acknowledging the need for one. At a hastily-called press conference last week, the Republican candidate rambled off a series of quarter-formed thoughts on his personal grievances while fabricating a tale about a near-death helicopter experience, failing to coherently deliver his talking points about the economy and immigration.
The latest surveys by The New York Times and Siena College show that the former president’s leads in key battleground states have all evaporated since President Joe Biden exited the race: In Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Harris now beats him by 4 points. Nationally, according to the 538 average of recent polls, Harris leads by 2.3%.
“Quite frankly, people like her more than they like him,” GOP pollster Frank Luntz conceded Sunday on CNN. Trump, sitting at home instead of campaigning, is seeing that and losing his mind, Luntz said: “His head is exploding and that’s part of the problem.”
According to Luntz, a more disciplined Trump — something Republican strategists have been hoping we’d see ever since 2015 — would be focusing on policy and likely winning as a result, capitalizing on the bad vibes around a strong economy. “If this is an issue-based campaign, Trump still has the advantage,” Luntz argued.
But that’s not apparent, either. Putting aside issues such as reproductive rights and whether, for example, the United States and Ukraine should remain free and democratic nations, it’s not clear that voters see Trump’s policies — a 10% across-the-board tariff that one analysis shows would raise costs for a middle-class family by $2,500 a year — as any better than Bidenomics and the relative continuity offered by the vice president.
Trump’s issues-based campaign, put another way, could be just as much a burden as his personality. A poll commissioned by the Financial Times and released Sunday found that Harris, reversing a decades-long advantage for Republicans, is now more trusted to manage the economy than Trump. At 42% to 41%, her advantage is well within the margin of error, but it’s a seven-point improvement over Biden’s July performance in the same poll and the first time the survey has found a Democratic candidate beating Trump on the question.
Predictably, just as news outlets were beginning to publish their “AI crowd” fact checks, Trump allowed a new wave of denial to take over.
“I’m doing really well in the Presidential Race, leading in almost all of the REAL polls,” Trump posted Sunday night, assuring supporters and possibly himself that his 2024 run “is thus far my best Campaign,” with the “most enthusiasm and spirit, etc.”
Trump, eight years older and just weeks removed from an actual near-death experience, is no longer capable of vigorously campaigning like he did in 2016; even his boasting appears mailed in. The former president appears content to live in an alternate reality where he’s winning, by a lot, and can let Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, his historically unpopular running mate, do the hard work of leaving the house.
It’s only August and surprises no doubt await us in the months to come. For now, though, it’s clear Democrats have momentum and are enjoying the feeling of optimism for the first time in years — while their opponent melts down in an echo chamber of his own making.
