The midterm elections will show whether former President Trump's endorsement power is still strong enough to reshape the Republican Party by sweeping his handpicked candidates into office.
Why it matters: If enough of Trump's candidates win in November, he'll show he still has the power to reshape the GOP. If they lose, he'll show his main superpower is to blow winnable races.
The big picture: So far, Trump has been a player in the elections, but not a kingmaker.
- While he's still seen as the most powerful Republican in the country, and most of the primary candidates he's endorsed still won, a dozen high-profile losses in crucial races have added to doubts that his star power is as strong as it once was as he charts a likely 2024 presidential run.
- Compounding matters for Trump — who's already bogged down by multiple investigations — is that many of the candidates he has endorsed for the House and Senate are seen as a drag on the GOP's efforts to retake both chambers.
Between the lines: Trump-backed Republican nominees are lagging behind their Democratic rivals in the polls and fundraising.
- They include Trump-endorsed Senate candidates — notably JD Vance in Ohio, Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania and Blake Masters in Arizona — as well as gubernatorial nominees Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania and Tudor Dixon in Michigan.
- Their election woes add to feuding within the party — most notably between the chairman of Republicans' Senate campaign arm, Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) — about candidate quality, and many Republicans privately blame Trump for putting them in this position.
- High-profile alternatives whom many GOP leaders considered strong potential candidates, such as Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey and New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, refused to throw their hats into the Senate ring, in large part due to Trump's attacks.
- Meanwhile, many candidates who Trump has endorsed, like Oz and Senate candidate Herschel Walker in Georgia, have controversial histories that have made many Republicans wary.
- Oz has been attacked as a "carpetbagger" who lives in New Jersey, while Walker has been targeted over violence in his past relationships, as well as for keeping some of his children a secret.
The bottom line: Each of these races will be decisive as to which party controls the Senate next year.
