On the docket: deliberations begin
Donald Trump’s fate is now in the hands of the jury.
On Wednesday morning, Judge Juan Merchan spent about an hour giving jurors instructions on how to view the charges against the former president, the specifics of the law, and how to consider the testimony and evidence presented to them.
Now, they deliberate whether the prosecution has proven beyond a reasonable doubt that Trump is guilty. They’ll have as long as they need to discuss and reach a unanimous verdict – deliberations could stretch days or potentially even weeks.
The jury needs to decide whether or not Trump is guilty on the 34 felony counts of falsifying business records. They also need to decide he did so in furtherance of breaking another law, which justifies why these are felony and not misdemeanor charges.
Merchan told jurors that they all need to agree that Trump committed another illegal act – but said they don’t need to be on the same page as to what other law Trump broke. That leaves open the possibility that some decide he’s guilty of violating tax laws if he fraudulently paid his former fixer and attorney Michael Cohen, while others could decide he violated state or federal campaign finance laws, and they can still convict him of the business fraud charges.
If Trump is found guilty on any or all of these charges, it will be up to Merchan to determine his punishment. “You may not speculate with matters related to sentencing or punishment,” Merchan told jurors this morning.
The charges are class E felonies, the least serious category of felony. They can be punishable by up to four years in prison.
Experts tell the Guardian’s Sam Levine that Trump is unlikely to be sent to jail, though the unusual circumstances of this case make it hard to predict what the judge might do:
He is a first-time offender, and the crime he is charged with is a non-violent paper crime. “I think the judge would probably not incarcerate him under those circumstances alone,” said Cheryl Bader, a law professor at Fordham University who called any sentence of incarceration “unlikely”.
“But also given that he is a former president, has a secret service detail and is also the presumptive Republican nominee, I think a term of incarceration would be logistically very difficult, but also would have political implications that I think Judge Merchan would want to avoid.”
Any punishment is likely to consist of fines, probation, community service or some combination of those.
“I can’t imagine we will see a remorseful, apologetic Trump if it comes time for sentencing,” Bader said. “Judges also consider the harm caused. On one hand, Judge Merchan could view this as a technical recording violation to cover up tawdry conduct, causing only minimal harm. On the other hand, he could view Trump’s conduct as inflicting deep harm on the entire country by depriving the voting public of their right to cast an informed vote in the highest-ranking national election.”
