As of Feb. 27, 2024, PredictIt’s 2024 presidential general election market shows former President Donald Trump (R) leading at $0.46, followed by President Joe Biden (D) at $0.40, and California Governor Gavin Newsom (D) at $0.11. Trump has held the lead in this market since February 9. No other candidate has more than a $0.10 share price. The share price, which rises and falls based on market demand, roughly corresponds to the market’s estimate of the probability of an event taking place.
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The Democratic presidential primary market shows Biden leading at $0.74, followed by Newsom at $0.14. No other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10.
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Trump leads the Republican presidential primary market at $0.91. No other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10.
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PredictIt is an online political futures market in which users purchase shares relating to the outcome of political events using real money. Each event, such as an election, has a number of contracts associated with it, each correlating to a different outcome. Services such as PredictIt can be used to gain insight into the outcome of elections.
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