President Joe Biden's initial debate performance has created a dent in his winning streak with voters, as a significant shift in favor of former President Donald Trump was observed. Across battleground states, Trump now boasts a 3-point edge over Biden. On a national scale, the former president now has a 2-point edge.
According to CBS News, a major factor in the shift was not just persuasion but also motivation. It stated that Democrats are less likely to definitively say they will be voting now, unlike Republicans.
Before the debate, more than 90% of the supporters of both Trump and Biden would not even consider saying they would vote for the other candidate. This strong support explains why the presidential race was fairly stable for several months. When Trump was indicted in June, it actually added numbers to Biden's camp, but it still did not significantly change the race.
Given all these points, it implies an electoral college advantage for Trump.
Meanwhile, 50% of those who voted for Biden in 2020 believe that he should no longer be running in this year's election. Because of this, it is very unlikely that they will turn out in 2024, and the likelihood of them picking someone else, like Trump or perhaps a third-party candidate, is high.
After the debate, most Republicans expressed a strong desire to vote in the coming elections. Independents are still contested, but Trump is already inching closer to gaining their support by November.
On a nationwide scale, Republicans are more likely to indicate that they will turn out in 2024.
A CBS News poll on registered voters showed that 90% of Republicans say they will be voting. For Democrats, 81% said they will, while among independents, 71% responded positively.
In the polls, the inclusion of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein, and Cornel West among the choices for president further increased Trump's edge over Biden.
In terms of age, the poll showed that the age of both candidates was a factor, although Biden trails badly among those who say that age is a crucial factor.
Generally speaking, after the debate, the CBS News poll showed that many believe Biden should not be running anymore since he no longer has the cognitive health to do so.
