Early in July, a poll showing President Joe Biden leading former President Donald Trump by single digits in deep-blue New York caused panic in Democratic circles. Now it is Republicans' turn to fret, as both internal and public surveys indicate a narrowing advantage for Trump in places like Ohio and Florida, erstwhile swing states that have voted reliably Republican in nearly all statewide elections since 2014.
The New York Times reported that two polls taken in Ohio show Trump carrying less than 50 percent of the vote against Vice President Kamala Harris, who replaced Biden as the Democratic nominee. Trump won Ohio with 53 percent of the vote in 2020.
On Tuesday, USA Today/Suffolk University/WSVN-TV released a poll that gave Trump a 47-42 percent lead over Harris in Florida, which is slightly more than Trump's 51-48 percent victory over Biden in 2020 but far less than Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis' 19-point blowout in 2022.
“I was surprised that Harris is within striking distance [in Florida], being only five points down,” said Suffolk University Political Research Center director David Paleologos.
While Trump is unlikely to lose Ohio or Florida, his underperformance there could reflect a fracturing of his support among voters nationwide and portend doom in battleground states that will decide November's election. According to three Trump campaign sources who spoke to Rolling Stone, the trends are causing alarm among Republicans close to the former president.
“They’re looking worse than they should,” one GOP operative with access to the data said. “Donald Trump is not losing Florida or Ohio, but that isn’t what’s concerning… It’s a trend of softening support.”
The three sources would not allow Rolling Stone to print any of the data related to Ohio and Florida, and perhaps for good reason; they believe the data would deal another heavy blow to party morale. Republicans had hoped that excitement over Harris' entry into the race would eventually fade, but the new revelations in two red-shaded states now have them worrying that Trump's electoral woes are a much more lasting problem. Rolling Stone's sources say that with Trump reacting erratically to Harris' ascendance, his aides have not briefed the former president on the data or their concerns in fear that it would only upset him.
Some longtime GOP operatives aren't surprised by Trump's collapsing hopes, pinning much of the blame on the candidate himself for obsessing over trivial issues. "Trump’s being punished right now for not staying on message and not addressing issues people care about,” Frank Luntz, a Republican pollster, told Rolling Stone. “This election was his to lose, and he’s losing it… And he’s incapable of changing.”
