Donald Trump has threatened to use the military to enact mass deportations after making illegal immigration one of his flagship policies during the 2024 election — with the president-elect saying he will boot millions of people from the country.
Trump has boasted of planning the “largest deportation operation in American history,” saying there is no price tag for the scheme. His chosen border czar Tom Homan is a hardliner, having promised “shock and awe” when he starts the job and describing current government policy on immigration as “national suicide.”
But beyond the hyperbole, how many migrants would Trump have to remove for it to be the biggest deportation the U.S. has ever seen?
Here is a look at the track record of the last three presidents — including Trump — on how many people have actually been deported:
How many people are living illegally in the U.S. and how does deportation work?
There are an estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants in the United States, according to Pew Research.
Of these, 8.3 million are employed, making up approximately 4.8 percent of the entire U.S. workforce.
The backlog of immigration cases sits at 4.3 million, according to the latest figures from the Citizenship and Immigration Services in September. Federal court systems hear immigration cases where a judge can order someone’s removal.
Of those, the backlog of cases seeking asylum has reached 1.1 million in 2024, according to the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse at Syracuse. For asylum seekers, the processing time is typically around six months; although some wait far longer for a decision, even 10 years.
Unauthorized immigrants can be ‘repatriated’ from the United States through two main avenues: removals or returns.
A ‘removal’ is what may first come to mind when thinking of deportation. This requires a removal order enforced by Immigration and Customs Enforcement or Customs and Border Patrol, is non-voluntary, and places criminal consequences on reentry to the US. Removal orders are the most severe forms of repatriation.
A large proportion of immigrants are also repatriated as ‘returns’, which take several forms but do not place restrictions on reentry. Enforcement returns refer to migrants who cross the border illegally, but depart voluntarily without a formal removal order.
Administrative returns can include cases such as citizens arriving at airports or ports without visas, or where applications are withdrawn.
How many people were deported under Trump and Obama?
During Trump’s term in office, approximately 1.2 million people were deported through removal orders. A further 805,770 were self-deported or turned away at the border between fiscal years 2017 and 2020.
Immigration orders during the Trump-era were lower than either of Obama’s terms. Approximately 1.57 million and 1.49 million immigrants were removed in the fiscal years of Obama’s first and second presidencies respectively.
In fact, Obama oversaw more deportations than any other U.S. president in history.
Between 2009 and 2016, this amounts to over 3 million immigration orders; without including “self-deportations” and other border returns.
When including all repatriations, 5.24 million immigrants were removed or returned in those years.
The Obama administration placed a particular focus on “threats to national security, border security and public safety” by targeting convicted criminals. In 2015, for example, 91 percent of people removed by deportation orders had criminal convictions.
Trump explicitly overturned this criminal prioritization measure as soon as he entered office, for the reason that: “We cannot faithfully execute the immigration laws of the United States if we exempt classes or categories of removable aliens from potential enforcement.”
By comparison, just 41 percent of deportations by removal order in 2019 were directed at convicted criminals.
Has Biden been tough on immigration?
Trump has criticized the Biden administration for being soft on the border and dragging its feet on deportation.
But the reality is much less clear-cut.
The total number of repatriations over the Biden administration so far stands at approximately 4.7 million, much higher than both Trump and Barack Obama’s presidencies, though comes with a major caveat.
The Department of Homeland Security publishes figures from each fiscal year, which includes the preceding October-December period, so these figures do not line up exactly with the presidential cycles +/- 3 months.
The majority of this spike is attributed to the Title 42 order during the Covid-19 pandemic, which was enacted from March 2020 (during the Trump presidency) until 2023.
Title 42 enabled expulsions for public health reasons, and was particularly enforced to prevent entry at the U.S.-Mexico border, removing the ability to request asylum. Biden tried to end Title 42 in 2022, but Republicans sued his administration citing border security concerns.
In May 2023 when the COVID-19 national emergency status was lifted, Title 42 restrictions were also lifted and there was a flood of migrants crossing the southern border as the policy neared its end.
Since the policy was stopped, Biden has used the standard Title 8 framework to remove or return nearly 1 million (969,000) unauthorized migrants.
Yet when looking solely at immigration orders, which are non-voluntary deportations and prevent reentry to the country, numbers during the Biden years are significantly down.
There have been approximately 649,000 deportations of people living illegally in the United States via removal orders since fiscal year 2021.
This is just over half the number of the approximately 1.2 million removals between 2017-2020, when Trump was running the country.
The more aggressive enforcement of deportations, which faces the risk of criminal consequences on reentry, decreased under Biden; though the use of Title 42 simultaneously enabled high volumes of people turned away from the border.
Meanwhile, Biden’s efforts to introduce a bipartisan security deal were stymied by Republicans in congress.
Prioritization of criminals
Mexico consistently tops the list of removal order deportations, followed by other Central American countries such as Honduras and Guatemala.
In the past five years, the proportion of criminals facing a removal order appears to have fallen.
In fiscal year 2023, just 32 percent of removal deportations were for illegal immigrants with a criminal record; in 2024 so far, just 1 in 5 removals were convicted criminals.
Both Republicans and Democrats have focused on criminality when it comes to tackling immigration.
Some Republicans have used crime among migrants to support their anti-immigration policies. On the other hand, Democrats have urged prioritization of targeting criminals as opposed to blanket deportation policies.
Regardless, the latest figures under Biden show that removals of illegal immigrants have not been reserved for those with criminal convictions.
How much would Trump’s plans cost?
While the exact number of people who will be deported is not yet clear, there is little doubt Trump’s plans would cost a significant amount for the American taxpayer.
To return illegal migrants back to their home country, a single full flight of migrants can cost $250,000, according to ICE. At the very least, deportations by ICE cost taxpayers $10,854 each, according to 2016 figures from CNN.
A report from the American Immigration Council estimated the one-time cost of deporting all immigrants without legal status at at least $315 billion.
A more long-term plan involving the deportation of one million people a year would cost an average of $88 billion annually, according to the report, to a total of $968 billion overall.
