With just weeks until President-elect Donald Trump moves back to the White House, migrants, experts and lawmakers alike are bracing for large-scale deportation happening over the next four years, as the GOP leader has continuously promised. But as questions remain over the practicality of mass deportation, Mexico is seemingly unprepared to absorb millions of undocumented migrants rejected by the U.S.
If Trump's mass deportation plans come into fruition, deported migrants will most likely be sent to Mexico, as it is cheaper and easier to transport them there than sending them back to more distant countries that may be at odds with the U.S., such as Venezuela, according to The Washington Post.
Washington's plans could have some serious ripple effects in Mexico.
Nearly half of the estimated 11 million people living illegally in the U.S. are Mexican, analysts say. But as the U.S. tries to get rid of the vast majority of undocumented immigrants, Mexico might also be given the burden of housing and taking care of foreign migrants as well.
It remains unclear whether Trump will press Mexican authorities to also receive non-Mexican migrants, but he has called for reviving both "Remain in Mexico" and Title 42 border policy, which denied entry to migrants on the grounds they could pose a health hazard. The policies led to large numbers of non-Mexican migrants crowding border cities.
At the same time, the majority of migrant shelter networks in Mexico, which are mostly run by religious groups and take care of the large number of deportees, are underfunded. Currently, U.S. authorities fly about 500 Mexican deportees a week back to Mexico City, where they're met by government teams that help them find jobs and sign up for benefits. But if mass deportations become the norm, these institutions will likely cease to function properly, The Post reported.
"No one is prepared for deportations of this magnitude," said the Rev. Francisco Gallardo, a Catholic priest who runs the Casa del Migrante shelter in Matamoros, across Brownsville, Texas. "Neither the governments nor the civil-society organizations."
At the same time, a sudden surge in migration could shake Mexico's economy during a time of increased slowing. This trend could be made even worse if Trump actually imposes his promised tariffs on Mexican products. About 80 percent of Mexican goods— everything from avocados to automobiles— is exported to the U.S.
The Mexican economy could also see a less-talked about impact— a drop in remittances. Mexicans in the U.S. sent more than $60 billion last year, according to The Post. In turn, large-scale deportations "could seriously affect the poorest people," said Tyler Mattiace, an Americas researcher at Human Rights Watch.
Mass deportations could also have a severe impact on the American economy, as industries such as construction, hospitality and agriculture— industries in which Latino immigrants form the majority of the workforce— could see massive losses of workers. At the same time, groups like the American Immigration Council estimate the plan could cost billions of dollars for the Trump administration, NPR reported.
Back in Mexico, with President Claudia Sheinbaum still new to the job after taking office in October, and continuing to scramble to assemble her team, it remains unclear exactly how the country will respond to Trump's plan. Earlier this year, Mexico launched its own crackdown on migrants amid pressures of the Biden administration, which played a key role in driving down U.S. border detentions by 78% since December.
Sheinbaum has also vowed to "defend Mexicans on the other side of the border," as Trump appoints his border and immigration team ahead of Inauguration Day. She has also promised to strengthen staffing at the more than 50 Mexican consulates in the U.S. to help ensure migrants' rights are respected.
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