BOSTON — Former President Donald Trump has a “commanding lead” over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in a Massachusetts Republican primary poll conducted after last week’s historic indictment.
More than 75% of Republican primary voters in the poll said Trump’s indictment in New York City was not justified — saying it was a politically motivated attack by a Democratic district attorney.
In the poll of 475 likely Massachusetts Republican presidential primary voters on Friday and Saturday, 45% of the respondents supported Trump, while 21% said they would vote for DeSantis.
Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley received 9% of the electorate’s support, former Vice President Mike Pence garnered 3%, and 19% of the respondents were undecided.
“Overall, Trump is in an extremely strong position,” Brian Wynne, president of Opinion Diagnostics, told the Herald on Monday.
“The indictment has helped Trump with his standing in this poll,” he added.
Trump’s lead is driven by his support from registered Republican voters (a 35% advantage over DeSantis) and senior citizens (37% up on DeSantis).
In the poll, 78% of Republican primary voters said Trump’s indictment was not justified, based on what they have seen, read and heard about the indictment. Opposition to the indictment is particularly strong among registered Republicans and senior citizens, with 84% of both groups believing the indictment was not justified.
Also, 46% of primary voters said the indictment has no effect on how they plan to vote in 2024, while 42% said they’re more likely to support Trump and 12% said they’re less likely to support Trump as a result of the indictment.
“People fired up by the indictment are definitely moving toward Trump,” Wynne said.
DeSantis’ standing improves in a hypothetical two-way matchup against Trump. In that scenario, Trump receives 46% of the electorate’s support, compared to 32% for DeSantis and 22% undecided.
“The only candidate that really shows any fight this time against Trump is DeSantis,” Wynne said, later adding, “Trump still has a commanding lead.”
While Trump’s lead is significant, his failure to reach a 50% majority support threshold in either the four-way or two-way primary matchup indicates that he’s more vulnerable than in the 2020 presidential primary, when as sitting president he earned 87% of the vote. These results suggest the 2024 primary is more likely to resemble the 2016 primary election, when then-candidate Trump received 49% of the vote.
Wynne, a former campaign manager and senior political adviser for former Gov. Charlie Baker and Lt. Gov. Karyn Polito, last week launched Opinion Diagnostics — a polling, data analytics, and market research firm in Boston.
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