Good morning, Peter Vanham here in Geneva.
The U.S. stock market has been on a rally since the election of Donald Trump as America’s 47th President. But in Europe, the mood has been less celebratory among business leaders – and its markets.
Jacques Vandermeiren, the CEO of the Port of Antwerp-Bruges, Europe’s second largest port, told me he was most concerned by the prospect of Trump tariffs — something the president-elect has said he'd institute on imports from all countries.
“We fear there’s not a lot of good news,” he told me on the phone from Antwerp. “If Trump puts in place tariffs of up to 10 percent, we’ll deal, but if it goes to 25 percent or beyond we see export flows fall back dramatically or cease entirely,” he said.
“We saw it with steel in the first Trump presidency. If it happens again, it will be a big blow to that industry, which is already suffering.” The same could happen to other export-oriented industries, such as the European food, beverage, and agricultural industry.
European business leaders “should be worried, and getting prepared,” Swiss-American economist Richard Baldwin told me as well, on the phone from Lausanne. (He wrote an excellent analysis on “Trump, trade and geopolitics” for IMD earlier this week.)
“We could go to tariffs that we haven’t seen since the 1930s,” he said. And unlike in the first Trump presidency, Europe is unlikely to get a pass. “Trump Season Two will involve tariffs that are a lot higher, on a much broader range of goods, and from a lot more countries.”
Europe is also likely to face a double whammy from a renewed trade war. Beyond the direct effects of tariffs on its goods, it is likely to be a victim of what Baldwin calls “whack-a-mole trading” by China. EVs and other goods that Chinese companies can no longer export to the U.S. could flood the European market instead.
The other aspect that “worries me about just as much”, Vandermeiren told me, is the risk of Trump-induced geopolitical crises. “If an action against Iran leads to the Strait of Hormuz or the Red Sea becoming unnavigable, it will have gigantic consequences. Southern European ports may literally disappear from the map,” he said.
“Perhaps Europe needed such a shock, so it can close its ranks, and increase the sense of urgency - which was already present - to make Europe competitive again,” Vandermeiren said.
"Is Trump bad for European business? If they are manufacturing in Europe, this is a bad thing, yes," Baldwin said. "However, there are some European businesses that are moving to the US, in which case deregulation and lower taxes will help them."
On that note: we’ll also discuss the “New Global Order” at our Fortune Global Forum, which takes place in New York on November 11-12. President Trump’s “Season One” (and possible “Season Two”) Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, will be among those weighing in. You can apply for last-minute attendance here. (It pays to hurry, as interest in the Forum surged since the election.)
More news below.
Peter Vanham
peter.vanham.@fortune.com
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