Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are facing off Tuesday night, with the stock market focused primarily on questions related to taxes and tariffs.
The presidential race is tight. So even a tiny post-debate shift in support for either candidate could have an outsize effect.
Who won Tuesday night's debate? Most observers seemed to give the nod to Harris, as did prediction markets.
Trump Media and Technology Group, majority owned by Donald Trump, plunged 14% early Wednesday, signaling a new post-SPAC low. DJT stock often trades as a sentiment indicator toward Trump and his candidacy.
Of course, it's unclear how many swing voters in key states actually watched the debate.
10:45 p.m. ET
Presidential Debate: That's A Wrap
The Trump-Harris debate covered a lot of issues, but there was no discussion of taxes, aside from brief comments on tariffs. That's the subject investors probably were most interested in.
19:37 p.m. ET
Climate Change, Manufacturing
Harris has said under the Biden administration, "we have invested a trillion in clean energy while we have increased oil and gas production" and boosted manufacturing jobs, while Trump lost factory jobs.
Trump denied that, noting the U.S. lost many manufacturing jobs in August. He said we'll "put tariffs" on Chinese EVs made in Mexico.
10:31 p.m. ET
Trump Said He Fought To Save ObamaCare
Trump said ObamaCare is "too expensive for people. And what we will do is look at different plans. If we can find a plan that's for less money, we will absolutely do it, but until we find a solution we'll run it best as we can" rather than "let it rot."
In response to whether he has a plan, Trump said he has "concepts of a plan."
Harris said she supports private insurers, unlike in 2017, and said Trump tried repeatedly to attack the Affordable Care Act. "Sixty times he tried to get rid of the ACA."
10:16 p.m. ET
Dow Futures Add To Modest Losses
Dow Jones futures were 0.3% below fair value. S&P 500 futures declined 0.4% and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.45%. Those are slightly larger losses than before the debate. That may reflect other issues, such as a rising Japanese yen.
10:10 p.m. ET
Who's Winning the Debate? Prediction Markets Say Harris
Various prediction markets showed Harris gaining ground on winning the presidential election, as the debate wore on. On Polymarket, Harris rose 3 points and Trump fell 3 points, leaving them tied at 49%. On PredictIt, Harris rose to 55% from 53%, while Trump sank to 48% from 52%.
10:05 p.m. ET
Debate Hasn't Covered Taxes
The presidential debate, taking a brief break after the first hour, hasn't touched on taxes, beyond a brief discussion of tariffs.
10:02 p.m. ET
Debate Covers Israel-Gaza, Iran
The debate, with the candidates throwing more pointed barbs at one another, discussed the Israel-Gaza conflict and related issues.
9:44 p.m. ET
Harris Calls For 'Diverse' Energy
Harris said the Biden administration expanded fracking leases and said "We can not over-rely on foreign oil." She said, "We need more diverse sources," but did not directly say she supports clean energy.
Trump said of Harris, "Fracking? She's been against it for 12 years," perhaps alluding to her opposition to fracking during her short-lived presidential campaign in 2019. He stressed the "radical" Harris would never allow fracking in Pennsylvania.
9:36 p.m. ET
Debate Covers Abortion, Immigration
The presidential debate spent considerable time on abortion and immigration issues, staying away from market- and economy-related issues.
9:17 p.m. ET
Trump Says China Will Pay Tariffs
Trump, responding to question about whether America could afford his tariff plan, said Americans won't have higher inflation due to tariffs. He reiterated that China is paying billions of billions.
Harris, asked about Biden keeping Trump's tariffs, said the former president ended up selling American computer chips to China to modernize their military and "sold us out." She alluded to Biden;s efforts to reshore industry in the U.S.
Trump said Taiwan sold the chips, adding that "We hardly make chips anymore because of philosophies like they (Democrats) had."
Context: The Trump administration imposed restrictions on tech sales to many key Chinese companies, notably Huawei. The Biden administration stepped that up significantly, imposing strict controls on the sale of advanced chips and chipmaking equipment to China broadly, getting many allies to go along. Taiwan Semiconductor makes some 90% of the world's advanced chips, but usually on designs from U.S. companies such as Nvidia.
9:09 p.m. ET
Trump Decries Inflation Under Biden-Harris
Trump said inflation has been the worst in the country's history. He also said he'll impose "substantial" tariffs, and said tariffs during his term didn't spark inflation.
Harris said Trump left with a terrible economy. Trump said he did a great job during the pandemic.
9:06 p.m. ET
Harris Lays Out Plans For Middle Class
First question on economy. Are you better off four years ago?
Harris: "I am the only person on this stage that has a plan to lift up the middle class." She called for a $6,000 child tax credit and $50,000 for small business startups.
9:03 p.m. ET
Harris-Trump Debate Underway
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have entered the debate stage. There is no audience.
8:41 p.m. ET
Futures Edge Lower Ahead Of Trump-Harris Face-Off
With the countdown to the presidential debate underway, futures edged lower after a mixed session Tuesday.
Dow Jones futures fell 0.1% vs. fair value. S&P 500 futures declined 0.2%.
Trump-Harris Presidential Debate
The Trump-Harris debate will take place at 9 p.m. ET.
It's the first and perhaps only debate between the GOP and Democratic presidential nominees for the remainder of the 2024 election. President Joe Biden's disastrous performance in the June 27 debate spurred his exit from the race on July 21.
Polls show a closely divided race nationally and in key swing states.
It's possible that whichever party wins the White House also will carry Congress, offering the opportunity for sweeping policy moves.
Harris, Trump Tax Plans
Former President Donald Trump wants to cut the corporate tax rate, currently 21%, to 15%. Vice President Harris wants to raise it to 28%. That could mean a major boost or reduction in S&P 500 earnings.
Harris wants to raise the effective top capital gains rate to 33% from the current 23.8%, though that's less than the 44.6% that Biden favored. She also favors taxes on unrealized capital gains for the super wealthy. That could affect founders and major investors in key companies such as Tesla, Microsoft and Google parent Alphabet.
She also supports quadrupling the stock buyback tax to 4%. That could essentially wipe out the incentive for Microsoft, Google, Apple and other companies to buy back shares as a means to boost earnings.
Trump Wants To Be 'Economy Candidate.' Could Immigration Policy Bring It All Down?
Trump Tariff Hikes, Immigration
The Republican candidate favors imposing a 10% tariff on all imports and up to 60% on Chinese goods. That would cause major economic dislocations and trigger a new boost of inflation.
Trump also says he would deport millions of illegal immigrants, affecting key industries and the labor market.
Trump supporters on Wall Street generally focus on his tax plans and generally pro-business regulatory views, and believe his actual tariff and immigration policies will be scaled back considerably.
Deficit, Fed Impact
Harris and Trump policies, if fully realized, would likely swell already-large deficits substantially. That could drive up Treasury yields and discourage the Federal Reserve from cutting rates substantially.
Those would be negatives for the S&P 500.
Election 2024: Why The S&P 500 May Vote No On A Trump Or Harris Clean Sweep
What Could Trump, Harris Actually Do?
If Trump or Harris don't have the support of Congress, their tax-and-spending plans may collect dust.
However, Trump would have substantial authority to raise tariffs on his own, as well as carry out massive deportations.
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