ANALYSIS — The first, and potentially only, debate between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is in the books. While it will be at least a few days or more to know how the Philadelphia face-off played with voters, there are at least a handful of key points and initial takeaways. (And this is after watching the debate without being on X, formerly Twitter.)
The race was close before the debate, and I expect it to be close after the debate. We can’t forget that the vast majority of Americans have already decided whom they are voting for in this election. Neither Trump nor Harris said or did anything on Tuesday night that would cause their supporters to leave at any significant level. But that doesn’t mean the debate is inconsequential. A shift of just a couple of percentage points among independent voters in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and North Carolina could make the difference in the race.
This was the performance Democrats were waiting for. Spot polls aside, it’s too early to measure how effective Harris was during the debate. But it’s clear this was the performance Democrats had hoped President Joe Biden would deliver on June 27 and hoped the vice president would give on Tuesday. She stood side by side with Trump, defended herself from some of his attacks while trying to cast a vision for the future, and even launched some attacks of her own. Her performance doesn’t guarantee victory in November, but I don’t think many Democrats walked away disappointed.
Both candidates avoided some key questions. Both Trump and Harris sidestepped some key questions from the moderators that independent voters probably wanted to hear answered. Harris didn’t directly answer questions about changing positions on some policies, whether people are better off now than they were a few years ago, and about bearing any responsibility for the tragic exit from Afghanistan. Trump didn’t answer questions about why he told Senate Republicans to abandon the bipartisan immigration bill, how specifically he would deport millions of undocumented immigrants, whether he regretted anything about his actions on Jan. 6, 2021, and whether he wanted Ukraine to win the war with Russia. Trump also refused to acknowledge his 2020 election loss. All of these questions have the potential to hurt each of their candidacies, and both candidates declined to take advantage of the big opportunity and stage to answer them.
There was a clear contrast in style. Harris set the tone from the beginning by walking across the stage to shake Trump’s hand. In the side-by-side shots, Harris was watching and listening to Trump and reacting to his statements. In contrast, Trump looked ahead, mostly with a blank stare, but sometimes with a scowl or a smirk. Harris was calm and mostly serious, with an occasional smile thrown in with her attempts to mix in optimism and hope. Trump often had an elevated tone and seemed more angry. This was the contrast Democrats were hoping for, even though it’s too early to know if it will matter.
Trump delivered his attacks. Like an open fire hydrant, Trump was incessant in his attacks. He seemed to cover most of his greatest hits, including countless attacks about immigrants and the border, former Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam’s comments on abortion, Harris’ comments on fracking, alleged gun confiscation, predictions of World War III and the financial activities of Hunter Biden, the president’s son. Trump’s amplification of false allegations of pet consumption by immigrants may have sounded strange to voters not buried in the online conversation over the previous 48 hours. Once again, Trump painted a dire picture of the country, hoping voters want to turn the page from Biden and Harris. After his nearly 10 years on the national political stage, Harris is hoping voters want to turn the page from Trump.
There were specific plays for key states. From Trump’s multiple references to fracking to Harris talking to Polish Americans during the Ukraine discussion or bringing up former Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., during the health care section, both candidates made specific plays for key states, including Pennsylvania and Arizona.
This is a new race. Tuesday’s debate demonstrated the new dynamic of the race. For most of the cycle, Trump and his campaign were running circles around Biden. Harris showed on Tuesday that this is now more of an even fight, and she is sometimes a step ahead of Trump. She delivered a host of attacks that often forced Trump to spend time defending his own record during the debate rather than being able to focus solely on offense. That doesn’t guarantee victory for Harris, but the dynamic is entirely different from Biden’s downward spiral.
It’s OK to wait before declaring a debate winner. Even though instant analysis is expected and rewarded, it’s not as important as how voters react. But Trump’s post-debate tour through the spin room felt more like a cleanup than a victory lap.
Nathan L. Gonzales is an elections analyst with CQ Roll Call.
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