WASHINGTON — Donald Trump awaits the most serious blow yet from House lawmakers investigating the Jan. 6 Capitol attack — a possible recommendation that he be prosecuted just as he’s launching a comeback bid for the White House.
The committee is poised to decide Monday whether to refer Trump and several advisers to the Justice Department for criminal charges for their conduct in connection with the deadly insurrection in 2021. It is the culmination of a 17-month investigation by the panel, which will also unveil its findings in a massive report.
In Trump’s case, the nine members will vote on whether to recommend a prosecution for obstructing an official government proceeding and conspiracy to defraud the U.S., according to people familiar with the plans. A charge of insurrection is also under consideration, one of the people said.
While a criminal referral by the panel won’t have a formal legal impact, it would be a powerful statement. And it would add to Trump’s mounting legal problems, including a federal special counsel’s investigation of his efforts to overturn the 2020 election and his handling of classified documents after leaving office. There’s also a Georgia grand jury probe into his attempts to pressure state election officials.
The panel’s nationally televised meeting at 1 p.m. EST Monday in Washington marks Trump’s latest woes since he announced his 2024 candidacy in November. In recent weeks his company has been convicted of tax fraud, his dinner with a white supremacist raised a furor and polls showed his support cratering after disappointing Republican results in the midterm elections. Surveys show him losing to President Joe Biden in a rematch.
Options for the committee include asking the Justice Department to prosecute the people for crimes or to pursue civil penalties. Referrals could also be made to the House ethics committee or state bar associations for other sanctions, including several members of Congress who did not comply with committee subpoenas.
For Trump, the committee’s findings will further tarnish his standing among swing voters who punished his party in key midterm battlegrounds. It will also fuel increasing concerns among Republicans that Trump damages the GOP with voters it must win to recapture the White House and expand power in Congress.
The Senate’s second-ranking Republican, John Thune of South Dakota, recently called Trump “an albatross” on the party in swing states. Arkansas Republican Gov. Asa Hutchinson said a Trump presidential nomination would be the “worst scenario” for the GOP.
“It is yet another reason for independents to go elsewhere,” said Alice Stewart, a former senior adviser to GOP Sen. Ted Cruz’s presidential campaign. “None of that will matter to his base, but it matters to independents and independent voters are the key to Republicans’ future.”
The report is likely the final act of the committee before it is dissolved after months of televised hearings featuring blockbuster testimony. It will draw further attention to Trump’s continued promotion of false claims the 2020 election was stolen, something party leaders blame in part for the midterm results.
Two polls out last week illustrate Trump’s vulnerability. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis leads him 52% to 38% among likely Republican primary voters, according to a Wall Street Journal poll taken Dec. 3-7. A USA Today/Suffolk University poll taken Dec. 7-11 found Republican and Republican-leaning voters prefer DeSantis to Trump 56% to 33%.
Among all voters, Biden leads Trump in a head-to-head matchup 47% to 40%, according to the USA Today poll.
Sen. Pat Toomey, a Pennsylvania Republican who’s retiring at the end of the year, said Trump’s hold on the party is slipping after the GOP’s midterm performance and his campaign rollout.
“He still has a significant following, that’s for sure,” Toomey, who voted to convict Trump in the Jan. 6 impeachment trial, said on CNN’s “State of the Union.” “But I do think his influence is waning.”
Trump may yet win the Republican nomination, with DeSantis still untested in a national campaign. The former president’s GOP rivals also could split the move-on-from-Trump vote and the winner-take-all rules in many Republican primaries would then allow him to capture the nomination even without majority backing.
Sarah Longwell, an anti-Trump Republican political strategist who has been doing regular voter focus groups, said even former Trump voters are looking elsewhere because “they think he has too much baggage and as a result he’s not electable.”
“There are a bunch of other people they can be for who scratch that itch of combative politics and owning the Libs,” she added.”
Republican Rep. Liz Cheney, the panel’s influential vice chair, and other key committee members have made clear from the start that they are determined to stop Trump from returning to the White House, where they argue he would pose a grave danger to U.S. democracy in a second term.
The committee hearings, including riveting testimony from former White House aide Cassidy Hutchinson and other former Trump administration officials, helped blunt efforts by Trump supporters to downplay the Jan. 6 insurrection and the former president’s role in it.
Longwell said in focus groups of Trump 2020 voters she saw resistance rise to another Trump presidential run soon after the televised hearings began.
The committee’s final report and a potential criminal referral are likely to help solidify the case against Trump, said Timothy Naftali, a presidential historian at New York University and former director of the Richard Nixon presidential library.
“It’s important for our current and future democracy that there be an authoritative connecting of the dots,” Naftali said. “This report and referral will always stand as a counterargument to any efforts by die-hard Trumpists to wish away the conduct of the Trump years.”
