Former President Donald Trump would win the 2024 election were it held today, a new poll published this week in The Hill found.
The 45th president, who faces widespread blame for spreading false claims about the last presidential election that led to a riot at the US Capitol, slightly leads Joe Biden in a Harvard CAPS/Harris poll published on Monday. Mr Trump would have the support of 47 per cent of voters while 41 per cent would back Mr Biden. The gap between the two was well within the 12-point margin that represents the current share of undecided voters.
Against Mr Biden’s vice president, Kamala Harris, Mr Trump fares even better in a survey gauging that potential matchup. Ms Harris was only supported by 38 per cent of respondents, while Mr Trump had the support of 49 per cent.
The polling is bleak for Democrats but comes far out from any presidential election; Mr Biden or whoever ends up being the 2024 Democratic nominee will have a long time to establish their own records and attack Mr Trump’s, which will likely change the dynamic of the race. Still, it’s a sign that Mr Trump remains a viable candidate for the White House (at least in the eyes of many voters) despite the events of January 6.
It also suggests that any other Democrat would have a hard time defeating Mr Trump in 2024; Mr Biden was already the oldest president to take office when he did so in 2021 and is regularly facing questions about his stamina, mental fortitude, and ability to run again in two years.
“That Trump beats them both by a wide margin suggests most Republican nominees once known fully by the public would beat them unless they are able to pivot out of the current nadir in their numbers,” poll director Mark Penn told The Hill in a statement.
The poll also gauged Mr Trump’s strength against members of his own party in a hypothetical 2024 primary, and found more of the expected results: The former president remains solidly on top of the GOP field with a wide gap between him and any other viable challenger. Vice President Mike Pence and Florida Gov Ron DeSantis were the only Republicans to register double-digit levels of support in a poll depicting a matchup between Mr Trump and other GOP figures.
Were Mr Trump to sit out the 2024 election for any reason, the field gets more complicated with Mr DeSantis springing into the lead and Mr Pence trailing him by four points, 28 per cent to 24 per cent. Sen Ted Cruz was a distant third, at 10 per cent in that matchup.
Mr Trump has publicly hinted at a run for months even as the January 6 committee appears to be getting closer and closer to alleging directly that Mr Trump committed a crime in relation to January 6. The panel recently argued in court filings that it had evidence to suggest that Mr Trump and one of his attorneys were guilty of engaging in a criminal conspiracy on the matter.
The former president has also falsely alleged to supporters that he could be reinstated if enough state lawmakers act to “decertify” the 2020 election, a prospect for which there is no process in US law or the US code.
The Harvard CAPS/Harris survey included responses from 1,990 registered voters across the country between 23-24 March. The poll was conducted using a representative online sample of voters, and did not publish a confidence interval.
