Trump, Biden agree: Only November matters

A scowling Donald Trump, now a convicted felon, told reporters Thursday that the "real verdict" for him "is going to be Nov. 5, by the people."

Why it matters: That's one of the few things that Trump and President Biden agreed on in the hour after Trump's historic conviction on 34 felony counts: Voters will deliver the final judgment on Trump on Election Day.

Even as Trump supporters vowed retribution while Biden's tried to stifle their satisfaction with mixed results, both candidates downplayed a watershed moment in U.S. history: A former U.S. president convicted of a felony by a jury of his peers, while trying to win back the White House.
"Today's verdict does not change the fact that the American people face a simple reality. There is still only one way to keep Donald Trump out of the Oval Office: at the ballot box," said Michael Tyler, communications director for the Biden campaign.

Driving the news: Trump's conviction added a host of unknowns and "never-befores" to a campaign already full of them.

His sentencing is scheduled for July 11 — four days before the start of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.
Trump could receive a few years in prison. But even if he's sentenced to do time, that wouldn't happen until his appeals were exhausted.

The big picture: The day might have felt momentous, but many Democrats, as well as the Biden campaign, are convinced the vast majority of voters already have formed their opinions on Trump.

The country is deeply divided, with warring political tribes choosing their own news sources and information feeds — their own realities.
Bolstering the view that most Americans are living in partisan, parallel universes: Trump retained a slight lead in the polls during the trial even as embarrassing details about his alleged sexual encounter with a porn star were laid bare in the Manhattan courtroom.

Zoom in: The question that's bedeviling both campaigns is whether the attachment of two words — "convicted felon" — to Trump's name will change the minds of many independent voters and even some Republicans, as several polls have suggested.

Overnight polls might give an early indication, but pollsters like to survey voters over several days to get a more accurate sample.
A Quinnipiac survey last week found that about 23% of independents said a guilty verdict would make them less likely to vote for Trump, compared to 11% who say it would make them more likely to back him.

Another thing to watch: Trump's GOP is famously loyal to him, including when it has come to casting him as a victim of America's judicial system.

Now many Republican candidates for office will be put in a position of trashing that system to defend Trump.

Between the lines: Those in the Biden campaign aren't exactly ignoring the verdict.

But they are trying to use it to focus voters on what they think are Trump's bigger vulnerabilities.
"The threat Trump poses to our democracy has never been greater," Tyler said in the campaign statement.
"He is running an increasingly unhinged campaign of revenge and retribution, pledging to be a dictator 'on day one' and calling for our Constitution to be 'terminated' so he can regain and keep power."