The deliberate Russian bombing of a Mariupol drama theater, where hundreds of women and children were sheltering, is a grim sign of where Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine is headed. A Russian pilot bombed the theater even though the word children was written in huge Russian letters on plazas in front and back of the theater, clearly visible from the air.
Having failed to take Kyiv, with his ground forces bogged down, Putin has turned to bombing Ukraine’s major cities into rubble as he did the capital of Chechnya and the historic Syrian city of Aleppo. He wants to terrorize and slaughter civilians until their leaders surrender.
This won’t work with Ukraine, as the courageous Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, told Congress on Wednesday. “Kyiv doesn’t give up and we have not even thought about it for a second,” he said.
That raises the brutal question of how long Ukrainians can survive, and what could bring Putin’s war to an end.
Can peace talks make progress?
With Putin in charge, don’t expect talks between Ukraine and Russia to advance in the foreseeable future.
The Russian leader is still airing his obscene claim that Zelenskyy’s government is “the pro-Nazi regime in Kyiv” which wants to attack Russia. Never mind that his blitz bombing of civilians imitates Adolf Hitler, and the letter “Z” on Russian military vehicles is regarded in Ukraine as the new swastika.
Still, Israeli news reports (of relevance because Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett is a key intermediary between Russia and Ukraine) have cited a supposed draft of a “peace” deal: Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea, along with special status for pro-Russian enclaves in the Donbas.
Zelenskyy would have to agree not to seek membership in NATO or the European Union and limit the size of Ukraine’s military. In exchange, Ukraine would get a cease-fire and partial Russian withdrawal from some of the areas it invaded.
Ukraine would supposedly be “neutral” like Finland (although Finland is now debating NATO membership because of Putin’s aggression against Ukraine).
These proposals are not serious. Putin shows no willingness to accept Ukraine’s independence. He broke his 1994 pledge to respect Ukraine’s sovereignty in return for Kyiv giving up its Soviet-era nuclear weapons. Who can believe he wouldn’t try to destroy a “neutral Ukraine"?
Before Zelenskyy inks any deal, he will seek ironclad security guarantees from the West against further Russian aggression. This all but guarantees that Putin is unlikely to accept. And while Ukraine may abandon its goal of joining NATO, Zelenskyy wants to advance quickly toward EU membership, also anathema to Putin.
“I have not seen any meaningful efforts by Russia to bring this war to a conclusion,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Thursday. “I don’t see signs that Putin is prepared to stop.” At this point, peace talks are likely a Russian smokescreen to rebuild its battered forces while further destroying Ukraine.
Can Ukraine survive a long-running war of attrition?
“Ukrainians are willing to accept a lot more punishment to avoid being under Putin’s boot,” John Herbst, former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, told me. “I can imagine a yearslong stalemate where what you see continues.”
I agree, based on many conversations via WhatsApp with contacts in Ukraine. But the devastation to cities and civilians will be horrendous — far worse than what we have seen already. Despite Putin’s supposed reverence for Russia’s ancient capital, known as Kievan Rus, he is not above pulverizing the city. Ditto for destroying the exquisite and historic port city of Odesa.
If Europe is already struggling to cope with more than 3 million refugees from Ukraine, imagine 15 million, along with millions of Ukrainians running out of food and supplies.
What more can the West do?
First, the U.S. and our allies need to supply Ukraine the weapons that Zelenskyy needs right now from us or our allies. The list extends beyond what President Joe Biden has cited, and is vital to help Kyiv and Odesa meet critical Russian challenges in the next two weeks.
Those weapons include more S-300 long range anti-aircraft systems, as the one new battery supposedly provided by Slovakia is insufficient. They also include anti-ship missiles that can save the port of Odesa. (Norway has them.) And stop fiddling over transferring MiG-29 fighter jets from Poland. Just get it done.
Second, the West needs to start thinking in the long term. Given that the war is not ending anytime soon, we can train Ukrainians now on Patriot anti-missile systems and transfer them to Ukraine in the near future. The U.S. and our allies should also prepare for the economic repercussions of maintaining sanctions for months on Russia. Furthermore, we can plan now for a Western Marshall Plan that will rebuild Ukraine from the ruins once the Russians retreat.
Third, recognize that Putin must be thwarted now lest he become more dangerous in the future. This does not mean a regime change — that is up to the Russian people. But it does mean a diplomatic solution will only become possible once Putin believes he has no other options.
Ukrainians are laying down their lives to fight for their freedom. We must ensure that they succeed.
