Justin Trudeau has carried out a major reshuffle of his cabinet, changing a third of his senior team – even as a series of blows seemed to guarantee the end of his term as prime minister and a spring election for Canada.
The move on Friday came at the end of a disastrous week that saw the shock resignation of his deputy, calls for his resignation from within his own party and public mockery from Donald Trump.
Moments before the reshuffle was announced there was one last setback, as the New Democratic party, which had been helping keep Trudeau in office, announced it was withdrawing support – essentially writing the death certificate for his government.
Nevertheless, the beleaguered prime minister pushed on with the reshuffle, adding eight new faces to his bench Friday.
The new cabinet includes the Toronto MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith as housing minister, replacing Sean Fraser who announced on Monday he would not seek re-election. David McGuinty, an Ottawa MP, will now be the public safety minister and the Montreal MP Rachel Bendayan will take the official languages profile and become associate public safety minister.
But the new team will take its place even as the writing appeared to be on the wall for Trudeau, who has been in office for nearly a decade.
Shortly before the reshuffle NDP leader Jagmeet Singh announced that his party will bring forward a vote of no-confidence when the House of Commons resumes in January.
“The Liberals don’t deserve another chance,” wrote Singh in a public letter. “That’s why the NDP will vote to bring the government down.”
Singh had called on Trudeau to resign following the resignation of deputy prime minister Chrystia Freeland on Monday, but had not yet made any concrete moves to force the prime minister out.
Freeland, a key member of Trudeau’s team for over a decade, departed with harsh words for the prime minister, questioning his ability to steer Canada through Trump’s threat of 25% tariffs and “America-first” economic nationalism. “We need to take that threat extremely seriously,” she said in a departing letter that warned that Canadian voters doubted whether the government understands the “gravity of the moment”.
Already smelling blood in the water, Trump used Freeland’s resignation as another chance to mock the deeply unpopular prime minister, belittling Trudeau as the “governor” of Canada, which he mused could become a US state and taking credit for a new border security plan apparently drawn up to pacify the US leader.
A spring election is now guaranteed, leaving Trudeau with “zero options”, said Scott Reid, a political adviser and former director of communications to the Liberal former prime minister Paul Martin.
“He will have to step down and will almost certainly need to prorogue parliament to avoid the collapse of his government,” he said.
Friday’s cabinet shuffle has been “overshadowed entirely” by Singh’s declaration, said Reid.
“The PMs hesitation to clarify plans for his future has left a vacuum that others have filled and now gravely reduced his options,” he said.
“For the government, preparing for [a spring election], begins by finding a new leader [for the Liberal party].”
Éric Grenier, a political analyst at the Writ, said the shuffle was more about tying up administrative loose ends than energizing the government.
The turmoil of this week is the culmination of a punishing year for a prime minister, whose critics say has stayed on well past his expiry date. Trudeau, who once pledged to bring “sunny ways” back to Canada, has seen his popularity plummet amid record inflation, an acute housing crisis, astronomical grocery prices and general voter fatigue after nine years in power.
The nature of a leadership race inside the Liberal party will depend on various factors including on whether it’s an open race or only limited to party members.
Freeland’s resignation was seen by some analysts as a sign that she could be gearing up for a run.
Trudeau’s allies have said the prime minister will take the Christmas break to ponder his future and is unlikely to make any announcement before January.
But analysts say that Singh’s letter means he is running out of road.
“It’s the last straw … This is the event that forces Trudeau to recognize his options are pretty limited at this stage,” said Grenier.
