Justin Trudeau, who promised “sunny ways” as he won an election on a wave of public fatigue with an incumbent Conservative government, is now facing his darkest and most uncertain political moment as he attempts to defy the odds – and a bitter public – to win a rare fourth term.
The Canadian prime minister appears to have ignored both the demands of a handful of his own MPs calling for him to resign and threats from a separatist party looking to unravel his party’s tenuous hold on power.
Nearly two dozen backbench Liberal MPs signed a letter last week calling for the prime minister to step down amid fears within the party that his unpopularity could lead to a crushing electoral defeat in the coming months. The letter was separate from a “code red” petition to grassroots party supporters calling for a secret ballot vote on Trudeau’s leadership.
Trudeau, in his ninth year as prime minister, appeared unmoved, telling reporters last week he had the support of the vast majority of the 153 Liberal party members of the House of Commons and that any “robust conversations” about a path forward “will happen as me as leader going into the next election”.
But analysts say the revolt in the party, which has deepened in recent months, will have left a mark on the prime minister, who was forced to stare down the most pointed criticism of his leadership to date from his own colleagues.
“The prime minister and his operation are likely shaken and must know that for every member calling on Trudeau to leave, there are two or three others who lack the courage to say it,” said Scott Reid, a political adviser and former director of communications to the Liberal former prime minister Paul Martin.
“This is an iceberg revolt. What lurks beneath the waves could be vast, and that has got to be intimidating the prime minister, whether he admits it in public – or even in private.”
For those within the party seeking to topple Trudeau, however, there is little historical precedent in the country to give comfort.
Canada has “exactly zero tradition” of prime ministers leaving their job voluntarily, said Reid, with virtually all either suffering electoral defeat or “jumping at the very last moment when they’ve exhausted every possibility” of winning.
And as in the US, where frustration grew over Joe Biden’s place atop the Democratic ticket, there is no mechanism to force party leaders from their perch. Instead, they must chose to leave the country’s top job on their own.
“The kind of person that believes in themselves enough to be the prime minister is exactly the kind of person who does not have any intention of leaving,” said Reid. “That’s true of them all, and that is true of Justin Trudeau.”
There is also no clear replacement for the prime minister.
Former Bank of England governor Mark Carney has hinted he might be interested in running for leadership of the party. Foreign minister Mélanie Joly has invaluable credentials in the province of Quebec – a must-win region for the Liberals – and public safety minister Dominic LeBlanc is seen as a savvy politician with sharp instincts.
But none of them have publicly expressed an interest in the top job.
Even a wide-open leadership race would face the hurdle of selling the public an image of vigour and enthusiasm from an incumbent Liberal party nearing a decade in power.
Virtually any contender, however, would appear to be in a better position than Trudeau.
“Polling shows that a sizable portion of the public animus toward the government has become deeply, inextricably – and quite possibly very unfairly – rooted in the prime minister himself,” said Reid.
“He is a lightning rod for discontent across the country. Coupled with an almost defiant refusal on his part to signal or pursue any kind of change to the status quo, you can understand why caucus members are nervous.”
The CBC poll tracker shows the Liberals trailing nearly 20 points behind the opposition Conservatives, a showing so poor it has little historical precedent for the party.
“In the past, even unpopular governments aren’t polling this poorly,” said political analyst Éric Grenier at the Writ. “The trouble for the Liberals is that has been a longstanding trend; it’s not the result of one scandal or big issue, but rather the drip, drip, drip of being in power for nearly 10 years.
“And the reality is that people already know what they think of Justin Trudeau, and they’re not going to change their minds about him.”
In addition to internal strife, the Liberals also face another deadline from the Bloc Québécois, which on Tuesday threatened to topple Trudeau’s minority government. The party’s leader Yves-François Blanchet said Trudeau’s “days are numbered” after the Liberals failed to meet his demand to boost old age security payments for seniors.
The Bloc can now begin planning with opposition parties for when they might team up to force an election.
“Trying to get re-elected three times in a row as the same leader is not easy. Trying to do it four times – that’s historically difficult to do,” said Grenier, pointing out that the last politician to pull off the feat was Wilfrid Laurier in 1908.
“If the only thing you knew about Trudeau was that he was trying to win a fourth term, you would think it would be uphill battle to begin with.”
• This article was amended on 29 October 2024 to correct the spelling of Wilfrid Laurier’s first name.
