ORLANDO, Fla. — A tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa is more likely to form into a tropical depression or storm as it steams toward the Caribbean this week, the National Hurricane Center said.
In its 8 a.m. Friday tropical outlook, the NHC said the system located between the west coast of African and the Cape Verde Islands was producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
“Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form during the early to middle portions of next week while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic,” the NHC stated.
It upped the system’s chances for formation to 10% in the next two days, and 50% within the next seven days.
The likely path has it sitting off the Leeward Islands by next Friday.
If it develops it would become Tropical Depression Three and if it spins up to sustained winds of at least 39 mph it would become Tropical Storm Bret.
The NHC determined the year’s first storm was an unnamed subtropical storm in January, which was followed by the Tropical Storm Arlene the developed on the second day of the official 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1-Nov. 30.
One of the drivers for hurricane development in the Atlantic is warmer oceans, and temperatures in the North Atlantic have risen higher than normal in the last few weeks, according to Phil Klotzback with Colorado State University’s Tropical Weather and Climate Research department.
“Considerable anomalous warming has taken place across the North Atlantic over the past couple of weeks, due to a much weaker-than-normal subtropical high and associated weaker trade winds blowing across the tropical and subtropical Atlantic,” he posted on Twitter.
That will face competition from the effects of a global El Niño climactic effect, which the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said has already begun this year. It traditionally brings more wind shear over the Atlantic that would hinder tropical storm development.
The NOAA’s seasonal forecast released in May projects 2023 to be an average season with between 12 and 17 named storms. Of those, five to nine would grow into hurricanes, and of those one to three would reach major hurricane strength of 111 mph sustained winds or greater.
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