Tropical Storm Rafael is expected to intensify into a hurricane by Wednesday, posing a significant threat to the western Caribbean and southern Florida. As of the latest update from the National Hurricane Center, Rafael is currently situated approximately 105 miles south-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica, and 295 miles southeast of Grand Cayman.
The storm is projected to unleash damaging winds, dangerous storm surge, and torrential rainfall in Jamaica, the Grand Cayman Islands, and western Cuba. Hurricane warnings have been issued for the Isle of Youth, several Cuban provinces, and the Grand Cayman Islands, with tropical storm watch alerts in place for the Florida Keys.
Residents in the affected areas are advised to stay informed about the evolving situation, as Rafael's trajectory could impact flood risks across Florida and the Southeast. Heavy rainfall is expected to persist through mid-week, potentially leading to flooding and landslides in Jamaica, Cuba, and parts of Florida.
While the storm's exact path remains uncertain, Rafael is anticipated to undergo steady to rapid intensification as it approaches the Cayman Islands and Cuba. The current forecast suggests that Rafael could make landfall in Cuba as a high-end Category 1 hurricane on Wednesday.
The Caribbean region has already experienced heavy rainfall from Rafael, particularly affecting Jamaica. Forecasts indicate that areas like western Cuba and the Cayman Islands could receive between 3 to 6 inches of rain, with localized amounts of up to 9 inches in Jamaica and Cuba, heightening the risk of flash flooding and mudslides.
As a precautionary measure, all schools in Jamaica will be closed for in-person classes on Tuesday due to the anticipated severe weather conditions associated with Rafael. The storm is also expected to generate rough seas and significant storm surges, with potential inundation of up to 3 feet in the Cayman Islands and 9 feet in western Cuba above normal tide levels.
Despite the active hurricane season, Rafael is projected to be less intense than previous storms like Helene and Milton, with potential limitations on its strength due to Cuba's geography and unfavorable winds. While tropical activity typically decreases in November, the possibility of storms like Rafael underscores the importance of remaining vigilant and prepared for unexpected weather events.
