FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — Tropical Storm Fiona is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane with top winds of 75 mph by the time the storm approaches the Bahamas.
The storm could reach Category 1 hurricane strength, which means winds of at least 74 mph, by Wednesday, according to the National Hurricane Center. At that point, the storm’s center is expected to be somewhere in a broad area that encompasses the southern Bahamas and points east and west. It is considered unlikely to threaten Florida, according to the National Weather Service.
It’s too early to say if the storm could threaten the southeastern United States, said Jamie Rhome, acting director of the National Hurricane Center.
“For those of you in the southeastern United States, it is way, way, way too early to speculate about any possible impacts, anything that happens beyond this point is wild speculation,” he said in a Facebook Live presentation, pointing at edge of the hurricane center’s five-day forecast map, which extended to the Bahamas. “So much too early to say anything about the southeastern United States, so stay tuned for that.”
The storm’s top wind speed has remained unchanged for the past several hours. At 2 p.m. Friday, the storm was producing top winds of 50 mph, with its center located about 75 miles east of the Caribbean and was moving west at 14 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. Fiona’s tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles from the center.
Fiona would be the third hurricane of the Atlantic hurricane season, which so far has been less active than forecasters predicted. It’s unclear whether the storm could strengthen beyond 75 mph, since that level of intensity occurs at the end of the National Hurricane Center’s five-day forecast period.
The hurricane center said the storm should strengthen as it enters an area of increased humidity and lower wind shear, the high-level winds that can disrupt a storm’s structure.
“Fiona could be very near hurricane strength as it approaches the southern coast of the Dominican Republic,” the hurricane center said. “The terrain of Hispaniola is likely to disrupt Fiona’s circulation, but the global models suggest that Fiona shouldn’t have much trouble reorganizing itself once over the far southwestern Atlantic, and the NHC forecast now calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane by the end of the 5-day forecast period.”
The center of the storm will move across the islands of the northeastern Caribbean tonight and near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday through early Sunday.
Forecasters also are tracking a new disturbance that emerged Thursday night off the coast of Africa. As of 2 p.m. Friday, its chance of development was 20% over the next five days. It could develop late in the weekend or early next week when it moves north over the Atlantic but appears so far to be no threat to land.
Fiona appears unlikely to be a threat to Florida, the National Weather Service said Thursday.
“The most likely path at this time is a northward turn early next week, away from Florida,” the weather service said.
Fiona formed late Wednesday, becoming the sixth named storm of the 2022 hurricane season. Fiona developed from Tropical Depression Seven, which formed in the Atlantic on Wednesday morning.
Forecasters said Fiona could move anywhere from eastern Cuba to the northeast of the Bahamas over the next five days.
Fiona is expected to bring sea swells and 4 to 8 inches of rain, with isolated higher amounts.
It’s now past the statistical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season with five previous named storms before Fiona. AccuWeather notes that “not a single hurricane has come within striking distance of the East Coast or Gulf Coast” this season.
The next storm to form would be Gaston.
“The Atlantic hurricane season’s slow pace so far in 2022 has ... led to a startling disparity in the number of mainland U.S. landfalls through mid-September compared to the last two years,” The Weather Channel reported.
Forecasters say dry air, Saharan dust and wind shear have been among the reasons there haven’t been more storms this year.
“The lack of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic has been particularly noticeable considering recent hyperactive hurricane seasons with many impacts to the U.S. and Caribbean. Even though the season overall may end up near average or even slightly below average, it only takes one storm to threaten lives and create a major disaster,” according to AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter.
The 2020 hurricane season set a record with 30 named systems, while 2021′s season was the third most active with 21 named systems. An average year calls for 14 named storms.
Hurricane season ends Nov. 30.
