FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — Though Hurricane Danielle and Tropical Storm Earl are forecast to meander in the open Atlantic, Earl is forecast to become the season’s first major hurricane late in the week. Additionally, a third tropical wave has emerged off the west coast of Africa.
Tropical Storm Earl picked up strength and now has maximum sustained winds of 65 mph, according to the 11 a.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
Tropical Storm Earl is located about 215 miles north of St. Thomas and the Virgin Islands, and picked up speed as it moves northwest at 5 mph, forecasters said.
It could still become a hurricane sometime early this week at it continues to move north.
The far western edge of Earl’s forecast path for Friday includes Bermuda. Earl’s tropical-storm-force winds extended out up to 105 miles.
Forecast models call for Earl to curve away from the U.S., and the storm is not expected to be a threat for Florida. Hurricane Earl is expected to form Wednesday, according to the National Hurricane Center. By Saturday, it is forecasted to be a major hurricane with winds over 110 mph.
“Earl is expected to curve sharply and quickly, allowing the storm to pass well south and east of the island. Direct impacts are unlikely, however Earl may generate rough surf and rip currents which can impact the island through this week,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alan Reppert.
As of 11 a.m. Monday, Danielle had started to weaken as it heads over the northern Atlantic Ocean and forecasters now expect it to lose strength over the next few days.
The storm’s maximum sustained winds dropped to 85 mph as of the latest advisory, with its hurricane-forced winds extending 25 miles from its center and tropical-storm-force winds extending 140 miles.
Danielle was located about 915 miles west the Azores as it drifts over the Atlantic and moving northeast at 8 mph, as of 11 a.m. Monday.
Forecasters say an area of low pressure could form later this week from a tropical wave near Africa, and gradual development is possible as this system moves generally west-northwestward in the Atlantic.
As of early Monday morning, the National Hurricane Center had increased the tropical wave’s chances of 48-hour development to 10% and its probability of development over the next five days to 30%.
Danielle and Earl are the first named storms to form in the Atlantic since early July, when Tropical Storm Colin formed offshore of the Carolinas. This comes after a quiet August with no named storms, something that happened for only the third time since 1961.
The 2020 hurricane season set a record with 30 named systems, while 2021′s season was the third most active with 21 named systems. An average year calls for 14 named storms.
The next named storm to form will be Fiona.
Forecasters say dry air, Saharan dust and wind shear have been among the reasons there haven’t been more storms this year.
Hurricane season ends Nov. 30.
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