MIAMI — On Wednesday, Tropical Storm Bret was inside of a small window where it can strengthen ahead of its trek across the eastern Caribbean, but forecasters expect the storm to stay under hurricane strength.
By Sunday, the National Hurricane Center called for the storm to dissipate into a tropical depression south of Jamaica, the end of a path that steers well south of most islands.
As of 8 a.m. Wednesday, Tropical Storm Bret had worked its way up to maximum sustained winds of 60 miles per hour and was trekking west at about 16 mph.
Several islands in the Lesser Antilles were under tropical storm warnings, and heavy rains and strong winds are expected Thursday and Friday as Bret crosses the island chain. More watches and warnings may follow later Wednesday.
An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane was set to examine the storm later Wednesday, and forecasters said they could find a slightly stronger storm. If it becomes a hurricane, it would be the first of the season.
But by Thursday or Friday, Bret’s window for strengthening will likely snap shut as wind shear — unfriendly winds that tear storms apart — picks up. By the weekend, that shear was expected to dissolve the system back to a tropical depression.
“Global models are in good agreement that the system will degenerate into a wave as it approaches the western Caribbean Sea,” forecasters wrote in the 5 a.m. update.
Forecasters are also watching a second potential system that’s right behind Bret. They gave this tropical wave a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression in the next two days, an unchanged figure from Tuesday.
Early storm models show this system, if it develops, could stay on a northern path that keeps it in the open Atlantic and away from inhabited land. The next storm name on the list is Cindy.
