Tropical Storm Bret is forecast to become the season’s first hurricane as it approaches the Leeward and Windward Islands later this week. But forecasts show the storm could weaken shortly after, keeping it on a path due south of most Caribbean Islands.
Tuesday morning, the National Hurricane Center found the storm was maintaining maximum sustained winds around 40 mph and heading west at a fast clip, around 17 mph. The center has issued no watches or warnings yet.
On Tuesday, Bret was facing some moderate wind shear, or winds blowing in an unfriendly direction, that made it more difficult for the storm to organize and strengthen.
Forecasters said they expect the shear to keep Bret in check for a day or two, but by Wednesday evening the storm has a chance to strengthen — potentially to a Category 1 hurricane.
But by Friday, the forecast calls for that shear to return, which forecasters said should weaken Bret and keep it on a more southern path, below Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
However, storm models are still split between whether Bret will stay weaker and keep south or strengthen and take a more northern path. For the past few updates, the hurricane center’s projected track has trended south.
“There continues to be a significant spread in the 3-5 day track model guidance, probably due in large part to differences in the predicted intensity of Bret,” the center wrote in the 5 a.m. ET update.
The hurricane center is also watching another potential storm right behind Bret. It gives the tropical disturbance a high chance (70%) of forming into a tropical depression in the next few days, but early predictions from storm models show its path curving north into the open Atlantic just ahead of the Leeward Islands.
